Not the day after tomorrow: Why we can't predict the timing of climate tipping points
Story by Science X staff • 1d •
A study published in Science Advances reveals that uncertainties are currently too large to accurately predict exact tipping times for critical Earth system components like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), polar ice sheets, or tropical rainforests.
These tipping events, which might unfold in response to human-caused global warming, are characterized by rapid, irreversible climate changes with potentially catastrophic consequences. However, as the study shows, predicting when these events will occur is more difficult than previously thought.
Climate scientists from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have identified three primary sources of uncertainty.
First, predictions rely on assumptions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms, as well as regarding future human actions to extrapolate past data into the future. These assumptions can be overly simplistic and lead to significant errors.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/not-the-day-after-tomorrow-why-we-cant-predict-the-timing-of-climate-tipping-points/ar-BB1r6ls3
