Buildings – The Achilles Heel of Net Zero
30 Jul 2024
Written By Michael Kelly
No matter the pious pleas for more action to achieve a net-zero emissions economy for 2050, the world is simply not going to get there. Indeed, it is going to fall far short.
In some areas, people overstate the progress that has been made, proclaiming, for example, the few minutes at a time when wind (mainly) and solar provide for our electricity needs. No-one caveats such claims with the highly restricted conditions, or notes that electricity is less than a quarter of our total energy use.
Gas provides the bulk of our electricity at times – the majority – when the wind is not blowing sufficiently, or at all. That is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Electricity storage, the carbon-free alternative pushed by Net Zero advocates, is currently a pipedream because it is far too expensive. Most serious analysts think we will still rely on gas for much of our electricity in 2050.
Even if we retain gas-fired power for when the wind isn’t blowing, Net Zero looks unachievable. So far we have partially decarbonised the grid and little else. If the whole economy – heat and transport and all the rest – is to be weaned off fossil fuels, the generation capacity of the grid will need to triple. Investment in generation capacity from 2030 to 2050 will need to be twelve times higher than over 1990–2020. Investment in grid infrastructure will need to grow almost as much.
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/buildings-the-achilles-heel-of-net-zero
