August 2, 2024
Professor Lichtman’s Crystal Ball
By Joe Fried
Perhaps you have heard of Professor Allan Lichtman and his prediction for the 2024 presidential election. He says that Kamala will win.
Lichtman uses a prediction system based on 13 historical “keys” that measure the strength of the incumbent party in a presidential election. Some of his keys, such as the charisma level of the challenger, are highly subjective. A list of keys is found here in a post by Andrea Widburg.
Lichtman’s prediction for 2024 may come true, but if it does, it won’t be due to the “13 keys” of his analysis. Instead, it will likely be attributable to a missing 14th key: the cheating key.
The professor is a committed Democrat, so he may not believe it possible that fellow Democrats might cheat their way to victory. That is what they did in 2020. But before we get into that, let’s talk about Lichtman’s skill with his political crystal ball. It’s not so great.
Professor Lichtman says he has been correct in predicting presidential elections since 1984. That is false for these reasons:
He dismisses his bad prediction in the 2000 Gore-Bush election because, according to Lichtman, Gore really won. I see.
In 2016, the professor received great credit for correctly predicting the upset win by Trump. The problem? He got it wrong. (Lichtman’s prediction was that Trump would win the popular vote, but Trump lost it by 2.1 percentage points.)
After 2016, Lichtman officially changed from predicting popular vote winners to predicting electoral vote winners. Based on that change, he correctly predicted that Biden would win the 2020 election. However, I don’t believe that it had to do with any of his 13 keys. This requires explanation.
In 2020, the cheating was so massive in the swing states that several state elections should not have been certified. I am not saying this based on conjecture or estimates. Rather, it is on the basis of solid facts that have never been debunked, or even examined in many cases.
more
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/08/professor_lichtman_s_crystal_ball.html
