House projected to remain in GOP hands despite Harris buzz
By
Rachel Schilke
July 31, 2024 1:02 pm
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The energy and momentum building behind Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign may not be enough to bring competitive down-ballot races to the Democrats’ side, as polling shows that the House is still narrowly projected to stay under Republican control.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings released Wednesday showed Republicans remain “narrowly ahead” but that there is not yet a clear winner. The polling group also noted two races that are shifting further into GOP favor as Republican lawmakers are seeking to expand their razor-thin House majority.
The poll found that Rep. Yadira Caraveo’s (D-CO) race in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District moved from a “leans Democratic” to a “toss-up” — confirming fears from as recent as two weeks ago when Democrats were concerned that President Joe Biden’s candidacy could be a liability for Democrats running in tight congressional contests.
Caraveo’s district voted for Biden in 2020 by about 4.5 points, roughly matching his national margin. However, the district backed Trump by a few points in 2016 and leaned more Democratic in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections than it did in 2020.
Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, left vacant by Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), shifted from “leans” to “likely Republican.” Democrat Adam Frisch will face off against Republican Jeff Hurd in the general election. With Boebert as the 3rd District’s GOP candidate, the race was rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report, as Frisch had narrowly lost to the congresswoman in 2022 and was outspending and outraising her.
With Boebert shifting to the 4th District to run for former Rep. Ken Buck’s seat, the 3rd District’s rating moved back to “lean Republican” late last year. Crystal Ball noted that pundits believe it will be harder to beat back a “normal Republican” like Hurd compared to Boebert, a hard-line conservative whose term this Congress has been marked with scandals.
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3105769/house-projected-remain-gop-hands-despite-harris-buzz/
