[UPDATE]..Trump remains the favorite in 2024 presidential race despite Harris’ rise: Nate Silver

[mystery-ak]

 Trump remains the favorite in 2024 presidential race despite Harris’ rise: Nate Silver
By Social Links for Ryan King
Published July 30, 2024, 6:15 p.m. ET

Even after Democrats dramatically moved to re-top their presidential ticket and got an apparent jolt of momentum, famed election analyst and statistical guru Nate Silver still deems former President Donald Trump the favorite.

His election forecast model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of prevailing in the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris is at 38.1%.

Silver previously pegged Trump with a 65.7% chance of victory over President Biden during his model rollout last month.

In his most recent assessment, Silver included a slew of polling averages that gave Trump slight advantages nationally and in most of the battleground states, albeit not in Wisconsin, where Harris was ahead.

Still, Silver’s analysis showed Harris rapidly gaining ground on Trump in most polling. His model also gave Harris a 53.5% chance of winning the popular vote compared to Trump’s 46.5% chance.

Last month, his assessment, which was based on 40,000 simulations run through the model, pegged Biden with a 47.2% chance of edging out Trump (47.1%) with the national popular vote.

The last Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote was George W. Bush when he secured re-election in 2004.

Silver touted his model as a “direct descendent” of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast. Silver founded FiveThirtyEight, which is named after the 538 votes available in the Electoral College, and departed from it last year.

more
https://nypost.com/2024/07/30/us-news/trump-remains-the-favorite-in-2024-presidential-race-despite-harris-rise-nate-silver/

[DefiantMassRINO]

I'll wait until Election Day to vote in person.  This 2024 Presidential Election is too dynamic and too volatile for me to cast my vote any sooner.

It's not a matter of winning my vote; it's more about the one that does the least to lose my vote.

[mystery-ak]

Polling guru Nate Silver changes his prediction from Trump electoral victory to 'toss-up'
Statistician previously predicted Kamala winning popular vote, but falling short in the Electoral College
By Yael Halon Fox News
Published August 2, 2024 6:00am EDT

Polling and data guru Nate Silver updated his prediction to "toss up" two days after he said former President Trump was electorally favored to win the White House in November.

Silver, a prominent elections analyst and statistician, released his first election model since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee on Tuesday. He predicted Harris would win the popular vote, but called her "a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College."

Silver wrote on Substack that this posed a risk of a "repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections." He said Harris is in a better position than President Biden was when he was the incumbent challenger.

But on Thursday, Silver changed his prediction. "The presidential election is a toss-up," his headline on Substack read.

"When we launched the presidential model on June 26 — in the lifetime ago when Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee — the headline in the post that introduced the model was that the election wasn’t a toss-up. Instead, Biden had persistently been behind in the states that were most likely to decide the Electoral College, enough so that he was about a 2:1 underdog in the election despite the uncertainties in the race. His situation wasn’t unrecoverable, or at least it wasn’t until the debate. But you’d rather have had Donald Trump’s hand to play every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Silver wrote.

"Now that the election is in Kamala_mode, however, it’s far from clear whose position you’d rather be in, and I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to bet either on Harris or on Trump," he added.

"At FiveThirtyEight, we actually had a formal definition of a ‘toss-up’, which is an election where each candidate had at least a 40 percent chance of winning. We’re now quite comfortably into that territory."

more
https://www.foxnews.com/media/polling-guru-nate-silver-changes-his-prediction-from-trump-electoral-victory-toss-up