Latest Global Temp. Anomaly (June '24: +0.80°C)
An unusually warm year or two cannot be blamed on climate change
July 17th, 2024 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
NOAA Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) July 2024 surface air temperature departures from 30-year normals, as of July 17, 2024 (graphic courtesy of Weatherbell.com).
That title might trigger some people, so let me explain. Yes, in a warming world due to increasing CO2 there will be a statistical increase in “unusually warm” years. But assuming the warming is entirely due to steadily increasing CO2 causing a slight (currently ~1%) energy imbalance in the climate system, then the warming that results is about ~0.02 deg. C per year.
Anything different from that small 0.02 deg. C per year warming is due to natural climate variability.
This can be easily demonstrated with a simple 1D energy balance model. Anything different is due to natural weather and climate variability.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/07/an-unusually-warm-year-or-two-cannot-be-blamed-on-climate-change/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2UKCbO765AZHyLMz9BejTAQHbyQkjTg7VJQmwF8OaJ9mrSAolzIrQ4eTk_aem_HUryPED_YuaEB8L2w_lauA
