This Energy Transition Thing Really Is Not Happening

[rangerrebew]

This Energy Transition Thing Really Is Not Happening
June 25, 2024/ Francis Menton

You know (or think you know) that there is an energy “transition” going on.  This is something that must happen as a matter of urgent necessity.  Vast government subsidies are being disbursed to assure its rapid success.  Fossil fuels are rapidly on the way out, while wind and solar are quickly taking over.   

For example, you may well have seen the big piece last August in the New York Times, headline “The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think.” 

Across the country, a profound shift is taking place . . . .  The nation that burned coal, oil and gas for more than a century to become the richest economy on the planet, as well as historically the most polluting, is rapidly shifting away from fossil fuels. 

But if you read that piece, or any one of dozens of others from the Times or other “mainstream” sources, what you won’t find are meaningful statistics on the extent to which fossil fuel use is declining, if at all, or the extent to which renewables like wind and solar are actually replacing them.

That’s why the Manhattan Contrarian turns instead to dry statistical data to try to get the real story.  Several years ago I discovered an annual book of energy data called the Statistical Review of World Energy.  At the time, the Statistical Review was produced by the international oil company BP.  I first covered one of these Reviews in this post from July 2019.  A couple of years ago BP apparently decided to get out of this business, and turned the product over to something called the Energy Institute.  EI then produced a Statistical Review in June 2023 (covering 2022), and now is just out on June 20, 2024 with a Statistical Review covering 2023.

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-6-25-this-energy-transition-thing-really-is-not-happening

[Smokin Joe]

As of last year, out of 235,000 registered vehicles in North Dakota, a whopping 200 (two hundred) of them were EVs.

Yep, taking the market by storm...

Besides, we plug in out vehicles six months out of the year already (engine heaters).

[jafo2010]

EVs will NOT become the primary means for travel in the USA any time in the next few decades.  And as a technology, I see it going away.

When the federal government halts subsidizing the purchase/lease of EVs, the demand will evaporate just like steam hitting the air.

FACT:  there is no demand for EVs.  The overwhelming EVs that exist are leased, not sold.  And when coming off the lease, the manufacturers gather them up and ship them to a foreign country to sell almost like a new car.  I actually saw an EV on a used car lot today.  The first in about one month.  There is no aftermarket here because of the leases.

Most cars sold are used, and with near zero EVs in our used car market, they will not last as an option.  Even with the federal subsidy, they are too expensive.  But for folks that have money, it is not an issue. I was showing solar panels to a guy for his home, he had three Teslas, and his son, a teenager, wanted a car, and he told me he was planning to buy him a Tesla.  For folks with money, EV expense is NOT an issue.  For the rest of us, IT IS A MAJOR ISSUE!!!!!!!!

[Smokin Joe]

EVs will NOT become the primary means for travel in the USA any time in the next few decades.  And as a technology, I see it going away.

When the federal government halts subsidizing the purchase/lease of EVs, the demand will evaporate just like steam hitting the air.

FACT:  there is no demand for EVs.  The overwhelming EVs that exist are leased, not sold.  And when coming off the lease, the manufacturers gather them up and ship them to a foreign country to sell almost like a new car.  I actually saw an EV on a used car lot today.  The first in about one month.  There is no aftermarket here because of the leases.

Most cars sold are used, and with near zero EVs in our used car market, they will not last as an option.  Even with the federal subsidy, they are too expensive.  But for folks that have money, it is not an issue. I was showing solar panels to a guy for his home, he had three Teslas, and his son, a teenager, wanted a car, and he told me he was planning to buy him a Tesla.  For folks with money, EV expense is NOT an issue.  For the rest of us, IT IS A MAJOR ISSUE!!!!!!!!

It isn't even a question of money. There are guys around here driving $80,000 pickups. What they want is performance and reliability. While an EV may beat them in the 1/4 mile, it won't tow that 30+ ft. RV trailer, not on the prairie, and not over the mountains, much less be able to work for a living.
If it can't do the job, there is no use for it, and the idea of not being able to make the next major town in winter (subero temps) is no selling point, either.