One of my favorite stats, and from my locale, is that there has never been a major hurricane strike in Texas (Cat 3 or larger) after 30 September.
Still October and November can still get kind of dicey for our FL Briefer friends.
This has been a rough hurricane season for FL and NC.
I found the article below very interesting and yes Milton was predicted with some accuracy, but people truly need to realize that most of the time you don't know where the hurricane is actually headed until it is pretty much on top of you and too late to do anything at the last minute. AI assisted hurricane predicting is fine, but at the end of the day God decides where Mother Nature is going to strike and hurricanes ARE unpredictable and can turn at the very last minute.
Interesting that they rely heavily on past historical data. That indicates to me, that hurricanes and their patterns are cyclical not based on climate change!
Hurricane Milton's Path Predicted With 'Unbelievable Accuracy'—Here's WhyA weather model driven by artificial intelligence has stunned meteorologists by predicting Hurricane Milton's landfall within 7 miles on average—outperforming traditional models by almost 100 miles.
Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS) forecast Milton's landfall location within 7 miles of the actual point, five days before it hit Florida near Siesta Key. Other leading models' maximum errors were up to 100 miles from landfall, while AIFS' maximum error didn't exceed 13 miles.
"While it is difficult to draw conclusions from one case, it seems like AIFS provided somewhat better track forecast for Milton one to two days before landfall. From October 2 on, the AIFS consistently predicted that Milton would make landfall in Florida," a spokesperson for the AIFS team told Newsweek.
Writing on X (formerly Twitter), Bryan Bennett, a meteorologist who closely monitored the storm, described the model's "unbelievable accuracy." He emphasized the model's early and precise predictions: "It predicted a landfall near Siesta Key more than five days in advance. The model knew that it wouldn't make landfall in Pinellas County or anywhere else in Florida."
Bennett noted that the advanced weather model has consistently delivered precise forecasts for other storms this season, including Hurricane Helene in September. "This is the future," he wrote. "Modelers are likely taking notice and will attempt to hop on board the AI weather modeling in the coming years."
AIFS stands for Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System, a nod to ECMWF's well-known Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).
In 2017, the IFS model accurately predicted the path of Hurricane Irma about a week in advance, the 2019 heatwave in Europe, and the conditions that contributed to the bushfires in Australia in 2019 and 2020.
Unlike traditional numerical weather prediction models that rely heavily on physics-based equations, AIFS uses machine-learning techniques.
The model is trained on decades of weather data, allowing it to recognize complex patterns and relationships in atmospheric conditions. This enables it to generate forecasts rapidly and with significantly less computational power compared to conventional models.
The AIFS team spokesperson told Newsweek that they are currently training the model on historical reanalysis but that "the magnitude of extremes (i.e., tropical cyclone intensity) is limited by what can be captured by the reanalysis."................
https://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-miltons-path-predicted-florida-unbelievable-accuracy-heres-why-1968429
