The counterfactual world of climate attribution
The Observatory
22 May
Dr David Whitehouse
It can’t be said too often just how perplexing the global temperature of the last year or so has been. Not since the debate about the so-called global temperature ‘hiatus’ earlier this century has there been so much consternation amongst climate scientists.
Nobody knows why the past year or so has been so hot. Scientists display a wide range of opinion, including the possibility that we may have entered a new phase of global warming, or that the blame might fall on solar effects or a lifting of the aerosol burden. There is also the suggestion that it’s all a consequence of the El Niño, even though temperatures were high even before the El Niño was declared in June 2023. Others have suggested that it’s not a climate event, and shouldn’t be considered as one as a single year doesn’t make a climate. It is noteworthy that this view comes from the UK Met Office, which has not always been so clear on the distinction between weather and climate.
If climate models cannot explain the recent temperature, you might be surprised to discover that scientists are using them to attribute the warmth of the past year to human-induced climate change. This is a curious example of circular reasoning. How can you attribute it to human-induced climate change if you don’t know if it was caused by human climate change? Clearly to do this you have to ignore a lot of things.
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/attribution
