Time to Pack a Bug-Out Bag, Hurricane Season from Hell Predicted

[rangerrebew]

Time to Pack a Bug-Out Bag, Hurricane Season from Hell Predicted
21 hours ago Charles Rotter 

I live in Fort Lauderale, Florida and this year’s seasonal tropical hurricane forecasts, from multiple sources, are the most dire and frightening I’ve seen, perhaps ever made.

This is coming from multiple sources.

I believe the first out to the gate was Weatherbell, (Joe Bastardi) with their “Hurricane Season From Hell” forecast in December of last year.

A hurricane season from hell is shaping up for 2024.
Very high levels of activity should be prepared for in areas that were essentially left untouched in 2023.
The El Niño will reverse to a La Niña, while the Atlantic basin will be ideal for development.
Very warm water in the northeastern Pacific is likely to mean the kind of pattern over North America that was similar to 2005, 2017, and 2020.
This invited storms to reach the U.S.
https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/04/08/time-to-pack-a-bug-out-bag-hurricane-season-from-hell-predicted/

[Wingnut]

Hurricane fear porn. 

[mountaineer]

Hurricane fear porn.

Ever since the invention of "climate change," a certain segment has been predicting - every year, without fail - the worst hurricane season ever. I realize Joe Bastardi isn't of that political persuasion, so maybe there's something to it.

Explosive Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2024, AccuWeather experts warn
A super-charged hurricane season could spawn a near-record number of storms in the Atlantic this year, and forecasters may even run out of names for storms amid a frenzy of tropical systems.
By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer
Published Mar 27, 2024 7:00 AM EDT | Updated Mar 27, 2024 11:44 AM EDT

...  Warm water is fuel for tropical systems, and there will be plenty of warm water for fledgling systems to tap into and strengthen.

"Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region [for hurricanes]," DaSilva explained. The Atlantic water temperatures observed in March were around or even warmer than they were in March ahead of the blockbuster 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons. ...

Unusually warm water could also help to spawn tropical systems in November when the Atlantic hurricane season is winding down. ...

"The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season," DaSilva said.  ...

Accuweather

[libertybele]

I'm already prepped for another hurricane season. Bug out bag -- only if we flood, so maybe we should invest in a couple of inflatable rafts?  

[mountaineer]

"The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season," DaSilva said.  ...

A fairly spot-on prediction.

[DefiantMassRINO]

How warm is the Alantic?  Warm enough to find tropical fish in Cape Cod Bay in late September.

https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2024/10/02/oyster-farmers-northernmost-blue-angelfish-reported-cape-cod/
Oyster farmers find northernmost blue angelfish ever reported off the coast of Cape Cod, org says
The fish will go on to live at the New England Aquarium.

By Beth Treffeisen   
October 2, 2024

Cape Cod husband and wife oyster farmers were flipping bags on their oyster grant in Little Pleasant Bay in Orleans last week when a colorful little fish caught their eye.

When Tim Silva was working on flipping the 5,000 floating bags of oysters on Wednesday to help clear them of debris and establish the oyster shapes, he noticed a blue.

“Not a normal blue,” Silva said. “It was moving, and it was fish that was not supposed to be there.”

The fish, which would later be identified as a blue angelfish, gravitated towards Danielle Orcutt, his wife’s hands, presumably to keep warm. Since colder waters were approaching, Silva and Orcutt knew they needed to find a place where the fish could survive. So, they called Wild Care, a wildlife rescue nonprofit on the Cape. ...

Maybe it came up via Gulf Stream or via storm, but, a most unusual find this far North this late in the season.

[catfish1957]

I've watched the tropics for 50 years.

This year is pretty typical. 

The most accepted mode of measuring tropical cylone activity is with what they call the "ACE" (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) which takes in account the number, duration,  and severity of storms.

The average ACE number from 1990-2023 was 122.5 Colorada state based on their climatogical factoring believed that number for 2024 would be about 230 this year.  Right now we are at 82.9.  So if present trending continues we are going to be only slightly above average, (my guess about 170-180).  But...  anyone thinking this is that this is a bad a year on a macro scale is wrong