Is the United States overestimating China’s power?

[rangerrebew]

Is the United States overestimating China’s power?
By Dan Murphy, Harvard Kennedy School
 Friday, Mar 1
 
Editor’s note: This commentary was first published in The Conversation.

Which country is the greatest threat to the United States? The answer, according to a large proportion of Americans, is clear: China.


Half of all Americans responding to a mid-2023 survey from the Pew Research Center cited China as the biggest risk to the U.S., with Russia trailing in second with 17%. Other surveys, such as from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, show similar findings.

Senior figures in recent U.S. administrations appear to agree with this assessment. In 2020, John Ratcliffe, director of national intelligence under President Donald Trump, wrote that Beijing “intends to dominate the U.S. and the rest of the planet economically, militarily and technologically.”

The White House’s current National Defense Strategy is not so alarmist, referring to China as the U.S.’s “pacing challenge” — a reference that, in the words of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, apparently means China has “the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the power to do so.”

https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/2024/03/01/is-the-united-states-overestimating-chinas-power/

[Bigun]

China can never defeat us by force of arms, but they are doing an excellent job of doing it from within.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

China can never defeat us by force of arms, but they are doing an excellent job of doing it from within.

By their population alone, I would say you're actually wrong.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Better to overestimate China than underestimate.

The Chinese Communist Party is destroying America from the inside out.

Anyone who says we overestimate China is probably a spy or useful idtiot for the Chinese Communist Party.

[libertybele]

Better to overestimate China than underestimate.

The Chinese Communist Party is destroying America from the inside out.

Anyone who says we overestimate China is probably a spy or useful idtiot for the Chinese Communist Party.

Agreed. China is a threat.  Also,  we need to remember the Chinese militants coming through our borders; both southern and northern.  China buying up farmland and American companies also needs to stop.

[libertybele]

China can never defeat us by force of arms, but they are doing an excellent job of doing it from within.

Exactly!

[Smokin Joe]

We overestimated Nazi progress on the Atom bomb, and as a result, we got there first.

The danger is in underestimating Chinese capabilites, and their willingness to use germ warfare (again), and other subterfuge to destroy us from within or weaken us so they can destroy us from without. It's no secret that current members of our government have been in bed with the Chinese, and they are not to be trusted, either.

[berdie]

We overestimated Nazi progress on the Atom bomb, and as a result, we got there first.

The danger is in underestimating Chinese capabilites, and their willingness to use germ warfare (again), and other subterfuge to destroy us from within or weaken us so they can destroy us from without. It's no secret that current members of our government have been in bed with the Chinese, and they are not to be trusted, either.

I have always doubted the use of a nuclear bomb to dominate. Why destroy the riches you wish to dominate?

I figure it will be biologic, stealthy invasion or destruction of the infrastructure thru the internet/satellites.

I'll be back...I'm going to hide under my desk.

[libertybele]

I have always doubted the use of a nuclear bomb to dominate. Why destroy the riches you wish to dominate?

I figure it will be biologic, stealthy invasion or destruction of the infrastructure thru the internet/satellites.

I'll be back...I'm going to hide under my desk.

I remember in grade school practicing drills to hide under our desks....thinking about it, how futile it would have really been anyways.

[Smokin Joe]

I have always doubted the use of a nuclear bomb to dominate. Why destroy the riches you wish to dominate?

I figure it will be biologic, stealthy invasion or destruction of the infrastructure thru the internet/satellites.

I'll be back...I'm going to hide under my desk.

It wasn't so much to dominate as provide the sort of shock and awe that would lead to a surrender, rather than an invasion and fighting for every inch of the Japanese home islands. The argument can be made that the sheer terror of an entire city going up in a flash saved millions of allied and Japanese lives in the long run, millions who would have attacked and defended and fought over every foot of soil.

Even though we did not want the Soviets, who after the war were the most likely to develop atomic weapons to have them (because there was deep distrust of the Soviets, and with good reason), I question whether we actively used them or anything but the quiet threat of being the only nation on Earth to have workable Atomic weapons to dominate. If we did, we did a poor job of it, as we gave most of Eastern Europe to the Soviets, rather than taking them actively under our own penumbra. That division might have gone quite differently otherwise.

Had we not supplied the Soviets with the materiel and knowledge to help them develoop their weapons industry, they would not have been quite the force they were on the Eastern Front, effectively splitting the Nazi war effort into three fronts: Eastern, Western, and the domestic front of extermination camps and secret police, which had to consume tremendous resources that could have been diverted to the war effort were they not used to kill more civilians than the total number of combat troops KIA for the entire Axis.

The only bomb that made sense for seizing territory or riches would be the neutron bomb (kills people but leaves most infrastructure). Nowadays, however, all that would need to be done is disrupt shipping, computer transactions, and banking (all interlaced), and wait for the survivors to kill each other over the scraps.  All of those systems are seriously dependent on electronics, and a few large EMP devices would make a mess of things.

[Smokin Joe]

I remember in grade school practicing drills to hide under our desks....thinking about it, how futile it would have really been anyways.

Stupid turtle, we don't have a shell...

We had signs up in the taverns that said "In the event of a real emergency..." with a long list of things to do, culminating in "Stick your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye.."

[The_Reader_David]

I remember in grade school practicing drills to hide under our desks....thinking about it, how futile it would have really been anyways.

Everyone always thinks about the fact those drills would have been pointless at ground zero.  The thing is outside the area of total destruction from an nuclear blast, there would be an even larger area where being under your desk would protect you from falling debris as your building was merely damaged, rather than destroyed.  Unless you grew up in the center of a strategic target (say Manhattan, downtown Washington, DC or a city with a major naval base in its port) the drills really weren't pointless.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I have always doubted the use of a nuclear bomb to dominate. Why destroy the riches you wish to dominate?

I figure it will be biologic, stealthy invasion or destruction of the infrastructure thru the internet/satellites.

I'll be back...I'm going to hide under my desk.

Well the thing is that it already happened. Strategic bombing... bombing of industrial and residential areas to sap the enemy's capability to make war. I figured that yes, a nuke war would firstly be a preemptive bombing of their strike first capabilities.  But we bombed Nagasaki and Hiroshima, two residential cities.

[Free Vulcan]

In a head-to-head confrontation? Yes I believe we vastly overestimate their military power and fighting capability. Look at their recent skirmishes with India. They didn't do so well.

In terms of strategy and moves on the chess board? We vastly underestimate them and their ability to use non-military tactics to undermine and break us down.

[Bigun]

In a head-to-head confrontation? Yes I believe we vastly overestimate their military power and fighting capability. Look at their recent skirmishes with India. They didn't do so well.

In terms of strategy and moves on the chess board? We vastly underestimate them and their ability to use non-military tactics to undermine and break us down.

  Exactly so!

[berdie]

Well the thing is that it already happened. Strategic bombing... bombing of industrial and residential areas to sap the enemy's capability to make war. I figured that yes, a nuke war would firstly be a preemptive bombing of their strike first capabilities.  But we bombed Nagasaki and Hiroshima, two residential cities.

True. But during WWII the same resources weren't available. All an invading force would have to do in these times to create "shock and awe" is hit the infrastructure and wait a week or two. I will guess that most country's military is heavily dependent on modern, computerized technology as well. I don't know if they could respond.