Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate ModelsJanuary 24, 2024 20 min read Download Report
Roy Spencer
Visiting Fellow, Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment
Roy Spencer is a Visiting Fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment.
SUMMARY
Warming of the global climate system over the past half-century has averaged 43 percent less than that produced by computerized climate models used to promote changes in energy policy. In the United States during summer, the observed warming is much weaker than that produced by all 36 climate models surveyed here. While the cause of this relatively benign warming could theoretically be entirely due to humanity’s production of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel burning, this claim cannot be demonstrated through science. At least some of the measured warming could be natural. Contrary to media reports and environmental organizations’ press releases, global warming offers no justification for carbon-based regulation.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The observed rate of global warming over the past 50 years has been weaker than that predicted by almost all computerized climate models.
Climate models that guide energy policy do not even conserve energy, a necessary condition for any physically based model of the climate system.
Public policy should be based on climate observations—which are rather unremarkable—rather than climate models that exaggerate climate impacts.
https://www.heritage.org/environment/report/global-warming-observations-vs-climate-models
