A Thought Experiment; Simplifying the Climate Riddle.
6 hours ago Guest Blogger
Foreword: Climate sensitivity is the central point of all climate change arguments, yet it is still undefined. As we point out in our Everything Climate reference page:
Declaring future predictions of global warming “settled science” requires a fairly precise calculation of future temperatures. However, since climate sensitivity was first identified more than 40 years ago, scientists and climate models have produced a very broad range of potential future temperature patterns. Calculations for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide range from 0.8°C warming to 6.0°C future warming by 2100.
So, this thought experiment, a genre Einstein was so fond of, really isn’t any better than any of those guesses. Channeling Kevin Trenberth we can say this: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of a known climate sensitivity value at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” – Anthony
By Bob Irvine
Is it possible to simplify the climate sensitivity debate? Einstein was famous for solving the most difficult problems on the back of an old envelope. Without pretending to be in the same league as the great man, is it possible to follow his example, take a sharp pencil and on the back of an old envelope write the following words.
“There are only two things that contribute to the energy content of a body or system. They are input energy and energy residence time within that system.” (David’s Law, Thanks David)
All the complex changes to energy pathways, changes of state and movement of molecules can be summarised and simplified with these words. They give us a base from which important conclusions can be drawn.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/12/20/a-thought-experiment-simplifying-the-climate-riddle/
