Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) said Friday on CNN’s “Primetime” that if House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) attempted to pass a continuing resolution at the current spending levels, it would “most likely trigger” a motion to vacate.
McCarthy put on the floor a CR that was substantially
less than Biden's spending levels, plus border security, and Gaetz opposed it.
Gaetz is setting McCarthy is so that he'll either have to 1) follow a politically disastrous course that will badly damage the GOP, or 2) trigger a Motion to Vacate. Here's how he's doing it:
At some point, a hard impasse is going to be reached on funding. Either the GOP in the House will be unable to agree on a spending bill, or the House and Senate will be unable to agree on a spending bill. A very short lived game of chicken will then ensue in which the Senate has no incentive to compromise because they know the GOP caucus is divided.
The Senate will hold firm to its own bill, and a handful (at least) of House Republicans will be willing to support the Senate bill rather than support a long-term shutdown. The first step in that will be for them to vote with the Democrats for a discharge petition to force a bill to the floor in the House. But that takes 30 days.
Once that discharge vote happens, the jig is up and it will be 30 days until the Democrats get their bill through. But in the meantime, the government will be shut down. What that means is that we'll have a completely
pointless shut down, because the Democrats spending bill will get passed, and back pay and everything else will be paid. So the only point in standing firm them is to have a shutdown for its own sake.
And that is the political issue the Democrats will use against Republicans in the 2024 election. That they pointlessly shut down the government for 30 days even though they knew they were going to lose. And Gaetz is basically setting all of this up so that McCarthy will take the blame. The only alternative McCarthy would have is to bring the bill to the floor immediately - even though he'd vote against it - But that's exactly what Gaetz says will trigger a Motion to Vacate.
There's nothing McCarthy can do to prevent that from happening if Gaetz is set on that course of action because Gaetz and his allies can, by themselves derail any House GOP appropriations bill.