Senate rankings: five seats most likely to flip
by Al Weaver - 07/03/23 6:00 AM ET
The 2024 battle for the Senate started with a bang earlier this year and has not let up, as candidates in top races continue to roll out their campaigns and incumbents scratch and claw to win reelection. Their efforts will determine who will control the upper chamber for the next two years.
Democrats are trying to play defense in a number of red-leaning states to hold on to their one-seat majority, while Republicans fight recruiting battles in several states to give them the best shot at winning a majority.
While it is too early to tell which side’s maneuvering will pay off, here’s a midsummer rundown of the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year.
West Virginia
The top spot in these rankings remains unchanged as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) faces a true uphill battle to retain his seat and secure a third full term in the Senate.
Republicans have been licking their chops at the possibility of unseating Manchin and, unlike in 2018, they seem to have their best candidate in place to do just that in West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R). An East Carolina University (ECU) survey released in late May shows Justice leading the incumbent centrist Democrat by more than 20 percentage points.
In order for Justice to make it that far, he must overcome a potentially tricky challenge against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who is backed by conservative forces. The ECU poll also shows Justice with a 40-point lead over Mooney, though some of that advantage is owed to his massive name ID.
Facing political challenges back home, Manchin has been on an offensive against President Biden’s spate of nominations in recent months, having said that he will oppose all his Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) nominees and voted against multiple judicial selections in recent weeks. He also opposed Biden’s choice of top economic adviser and is likely to oppose Julie Su’s nomination to lead the Department of Labor, if she ever comes up for a vote on the floor.
Allies, however, say this isn’t anything unusual and that it’s just how he operates.
“The recent opposition is just who he normally is. He reviews all nominees the same way,” said Jon Kott, a former Manchin spokesperson, who noted what Manchin used to tell him about how he considers nominees. “He’d say, ‘I look at them and say: Are they good for the state of West Virginia and the good of the country?’”
“I just think it’s getting more scrutiny because it’s the political season,” Kott added.
Of course, Manchin has yet to announce whether he’ll even seek reelection, with a decision expected in December or shortly before the January filing deadline, as he continues to flirt with a third-party presidential bid.
more
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4076463-senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip/
