2023 Tropical Weather Discussion

[catfish1957]

What are the odds that it might smack into NY harbor, or cut across L.I.?

Anecdotally, pretty small just due to the rolling of the dice.  The NHC does do forecast wind probabilities for 34kt. (t.s. strength) , 50 kt, and 64kt (hurricane strength), but they only do it out 5 days, so that data isn't in play yet.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/070832.shtml?

Just my opinion, and again just my opinion is that anyone from Miami to Newfoundland, and Bermuda should keep their eye on advisories.  This has the chance to be a very large diametered storm that might have significant impact even if you are  missed by the eye by 100's of miles.

Why Florida?  I mentioned a few posts ago, that extremely large and powerful storms sometimes defy atmospheric imfluences.  A good example is when we were watching Gilbert in 1988.  The NHC for maybe the last 800 miles of its track kept predicting a northwestern, and then northern turn to the storm.  Never happened.

[Wingnut]

I like that model.

[Kamaji]

I like that model.

As long as one does not have impending vacation plans in Bermuda.

[Wingnut]

As long as one does not have impending vacation plans in Bermuda.

True but....
As a Floridian I learned not to go on vacay during 'Cane season.

[Kamaji]

True but....
As a Floridian I learned not to go on vacay during 'Cane season.

Unfortunately, if it hits Bermuda, it may do a lot of long-lasting damage that will thwart vacay plans even after 'Cane season.

[libertybele]

Unfortunately, if it hits Bermuda, it may do a lot of long-lasting damage that will thwart vacay plans even after 'Cane season.

My take --

The hurricane is already a Cat 4 -- it will decimate Bermuda even if they don't take a direct hit.  According to local news tomorrow it should reach 165 mph winds with wind gusts of 195. It is 500 miles wide.  IMHO They should be evacuating those in Bermuda now should it take a slight curve to the north.  It is supposed to pass north of Puerto Rico -- however, they'll likely realize surge and winds.

If it doesn't take a jog to the north and they are now saying that there is more uncertainty, a hit along the US east cost somewhere will be absolutely devastating -- storm surge and wind; without that turn it looks like a direct hit to Miami and across the state as FL is only 170 miles wide. 

We'll know by Sunday ---- if it's aimed at FL it is very likely that southern and central FL will likely be trying to try to get out.  It will be another historical and catastrophic hurricane.

Sigh.  God help all of those in Lee's path.

[Wingnut]

My take --

The hurricane is already a Cat 4 -- it will decimate Bermuda even if they don't take a direct hit.  According to local news tomorrow it should reach 165 mph winds with wind gusts of 195. It is 500 miles wide.  IMHO They should be evacuating those in Bermuda now should it take a slight curve to the north.  It is supposed to pass north of Puerto Rico -- however, they'll likely realize surge and winds.

If it doesn't take a jog to the north and they are now saying that there is more uncertainty, a hit along the US east cost somewhere will be absolutely devastating -- storm surge and wind; without that turn it looks like a direct hit to Miami and across the state as FL is only 170 miles wide. 

We'll know by Sunday ---- if it's aimed at FL it is very likely that southern and central FL will likely be trying to try to get out.  It will be another historical and catastrophic hurricane.

Sigh.  God help all of those in Lee's path.

You worry too much.  Relax.  Have a Margarita and chill.

[libertybele]

You worry too much.  Relax.  Have a Margarita and chill.

Take a look at this video @link below -- the discussion at the very end is what is concerning. They bring up the possibility of this becoming even larger.  Yep I do worry --- we've been through Charley, Irma, and Ian. All 3 were too close for comfort with very near misses of a direct hit. This one is mammoth in comparison to even Irma with much greater intensity.

This one warrants a double shot of scotch.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/hurricane-lee-forecast-to-reach-category-5-by-friday

[catfish1957]

NHC tomorrow at this time has Lee at Cat 5 sustained windspeed.

145 knots. sustained 170 knot gusts.  Insane

That translates 5o 167 mph and 201 mph gusts.

[Kamaji]

NHC tomorrow at this time has Lee at Cat 5 sustained windspeed.

145 knots. sustained 170 knot gusts.  Insane

That translates 5o 167 mph and 201 mph gusts.

Where is it tracking now?

[Kamaji]

Hurricane Lee explodes into Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean

By Allie Griffin
Published Sep. 8, 2023

Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified into the first Category 5 storm of the Atlantic season late Thursday as it approached the northeast Caribbean.

Lee is not expected to make landfall but its powerful effects will be felt on some islands, including the Lesser Antilles which will see 10- to 15-foot waves Friday, according to forecasters.

The major storm barreled through open ocean about 705 miles east of the northern Leeward Island with winds of up to 160 miles per hour as it moved west-northwest.

The US Federal Emergency Management Agency has deployed teams to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands in preparation for the hurricane, the White House said.

Massive, life-threatening waves are expected to slam the coasts of Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/09/08/hurricane-lee-intensified-to-category-5-storm-as-it-approaches-the-caribbean/

[catfish1957]

Where is it tracking now?

If you plot Lee it is showing a very slight west of track progression via prior advisories.  Still not one single model has a direct CONUS hit, though some show Maritime Canadian Provinces.  Of course, this equation changes every 12 hours, so not out of the woods yet.

Secondly, we sure shouldn't forget that storm of this size and magnitude could do some serious damage (Say Hateras northward) if the storm tracks west and is within a few hundred miles of the coast.

[libertybele]

Hurricane Lee explodes into Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean

By Allie Griffin
Published Sep. 8, 2023

Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified into the first Category 5 storm of the Atlantic season late Thursday as it approached the northeast Caribbean.

Lee is not expected to make landfall but its powerful effects will be felt on some islands, including the Lesser Antilles which will see 10- to 15-foot waves Friday, according to forecasters.

The major storm barreled through open ocean about 705 miles east of the northern Leeward Island with winds of up to 160 miles per hour as it moved west-northwest.

The US Federal Emergency Management Agency has deployed teams to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands in preparation for the hurricane, the White House said.

Massive, life-threatening waves are expected to slam the coasts of Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/09/08/hurricane-lee-intensified-to-category-5-storm-as-it-approaches-the-caribbean/

Interesting that FEMA has been deployed -- where in the heck was FEMA when Ian and Idalia were rolling in and we took a direct hit???

[libertybele]

If you plot Lee it is showing a very slight west of track progression via prior advisories.  Still not one single model has a direct CONUS hit, though some show Maritime Canadian Provinces.  Of course, this equation changes every 12 hours, so not out of the woods yet.

Secondly, we sure shouldn't forget that storm of this size and magnitude could do some serious damage (Say Hateras northward) if the storm tracks west and is within a few hundred miles of the coast.

IMHO FL cannot be ruled out. Locally we had a forecaster who said that this is not a FL hurricane -- that 'tweet' has now been taken down.

Weather reports have stated that if it slows down a bit due to some wind sheer (and it has already gone from a 5 to a 4), it may not curve to the north as anticipated. If that happens, I feel that FL will get walloped.  If not FL then the Carolinas.  Just my take.

[Bigun]

Interesting that FEMA has been deployed -- where in the heck was FEMA when Ian and Idalia were rolling in and we took a direct hit???

Florida doesn't vote Democrat! Next question please.

[DCPatriot]

Florida doesn't vote Democrat! Next question please.

Well, they didn't want to get hit by a 'Roundhouse' in the media seeing as how they are perceived reacting to the Maui Fires.  I don't think the Electoral Vote matters there.

Furthermore, it's right here in our side yard...not in the middle of the Pacific 5K miles away.

[libertybele]

Florida doesn't vote Democrat! Next question please.

Gottcha.

[catfish1957]

Lee has ran into a a SW to NE tongue of sheer a couple of hundred miles NE of Leeward Islands.  Still Cat 3, at 115 mph, and NHC expects reintensification.

What is puzzling to me is the overall path still is running somewhat south and west of previous forecasts.  At focal length, you'd think this would bode badly for all between FL and entire east coast.  But, the NHC is exepcting some abrupt northward turning Wednesday.  I am still skeptical. 
Let's all hope this is the case though.

[mountaineer]

Current projected track of Lee (as of approximately 10 AM, 9/11/23):

https://twitter.com/FencingRat/status/1701277390083858628

[Kamaji]

Current projected track of Lee (as of approximately 10 AM, 9/11/23):

https://twitter.com/FencingRat/status/1701277390083858628

@mountaineer Thanks for the update!

[Wingnut]

Current projected track of Lee (as of approximately 10 AM, 9/11/23):

https://twitter.com/FencingRat/status/1701277390083858628

Rebekah Jones?   The FL covid whistle blower that wasn't is now forecasting weather events?  MY MY. 

[Cyber Liberty]

Rebekah Jones?   The FL covid whistle blower that wasn't is now forecasting weather events?  MY MY.

She has a Sharpie and is not afraid to use it.

[mountaineer]

Dangerous surf & life-threatening rip currents expected for Western Atlantic coastal areas this week. Too soon to know additional impacts for NE U.S. & Atlantic Canada late this week.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1701343054806778308

[catfish1957]

It's now Monday afternoon, and that NHC projeced northward turn is  now 24-36 hours late.  As advertised, the front/trough has delievered into the Southern  and Eastern GOM. 

But let me repeat.....   Someimes these monster storms (like Gilbert as example) defy atmospheric influences, and barrow through like freight trains.  Right now, only New England is in the cone,  but the mid altlantic coast should not let their guard down.  OTOH, I do feel better for everyone Cape Hatteras southward.

Also notice that same front from about 30N/90W has gone stationary.  If the front washes out quicker than the Mets predict, I also expect a more westward projection of the storm too.  On the good side, there is a lot of broken unorganized convection to the north of the storm.  Whih I hope wlll hinder strengthening.

[DefiantMassRINO]

 

How much longer must we endure the Global Climate Change carnage until we realize that John Kerry is still a pretentious hypocritical douchebag?

It's unprecendented for New England to be hit by a hurricane in September, except in 1858, 1869, 1888, 1889, 1896, 1938, 1944, 1954, 1960, and 1985.

[Wingnut]

Wouldn't be nice if the weather porn prognosticators would for once, just once, say that the chances of this cane causing serious damage to the US is very slime.

This is why we have lost faith in our institutions. 

[DefiantMassRINO]

 

[catfish1957]

I think the likes of the NHC do a decent objective and straightforward job of reporting storms. In fact they provide the reader an exact tally of the probability of a Hurricane or T.S. Hit out 120 hours.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/112041.shtml?

The rest of proggys like the Weather Channel, Accuweather, et. al.  often succumb to that sensational side of storm predictions. 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyrRCx8-fZk

[catfish1957]

Still waiting for Lee's abrupt right turn.

90% of the pervious model runs had Lee more north than 25N, as it passed 65W Longitude.  Makes me wonder if the official track should be  more west than present.

[catfish1957]

48 hours late, but that long expected northward turn has begun for Lee.    Winds right now are a robust 115mph Cat 3 sustained winds.  As far as future tracking, I think we are now down to counting Lat/Long Clicks as far as New England.  Official NHC path now has the line at the far eastern border of Maine as an extra-tropical Tropical Storm.   Overall cone itself streches from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland.

Storms like this as they get caught up in the Gulf Stream have a tendency to broaden their wind fields, and a lot forecating is saying the mid atlantic to Canada, and including Bermuda should expect Tropical Storm  Winds. 

With minimal expected adverse hurricane issues (ex. flooding, rip currents), this will be my last comments on Lee.

[libertybele]

48 hours late, but that long expected northward turn has begun for Lee.    Winds right now are a robust 115mph Cat 3 sustained winds.  As far as future tracking, I think we are now down to counting Lat/Long Clicks as far as New England.  Official NHC path now has the line at the far eastern border of Maine as an extra-tropical Tropical Storm.   Overall cone itself streches from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland.

Storms like this as they get caught up in the Gulf Stream have a tendency to broaden their wind fields, and a lot forecating is saying the mid atlantic to Canada, and including Bermuda should expect Tropical Storm  Winds. 

With minimal expected adverse hurricane issues (ex. flooding, rip currents), this will be my last comments on Lee.

Thank you for the updates @catfish1957 

[Kamaji]

48 hours late, but that long expected northward turn has begun for Lee.    Winds right now are a robust 115mph Cat 3 sustained winds.  As far as future tracking, I think we are now down to counting Lat/Long Clicks as far as New England.  Official NHC path now has the line at the far eastern border of Maine as an extra-tropical Tropical Storm.   Overall cone itself streches from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland.

Storms like this as they get caught up in the Gulf Stream have a tendency to broaden their wind fields, and a lot forecating is saying the mid atlantic to Canada, and including Bermuda should expect Tropical Storm  Winds. 

With minimal expected adverse hurricane issues (ex. flooding, rip currents), this will be my last comments on Lee.

Thanks!

[DefiantMassRINO]

I wonder if Hurricane Margot will help to push Lee further west.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=24&dim=1

[catfish1957]

Next up...  The "N" Storm

Nigel now formed, and is forecasted to intensify pretty rapidly, reaching Cat 3 by Tuesday.  The Good news is this one is 99% likely to be a fish storm. 

From my experience this year is kind of looking like a lot like 1995.  That was a big year for storms, and the 5th most active in history.  BUT...  The big character of that year, was most of that activtiy was in the Central Atlantic..  Only one named major hurricane hit the  U.S. that year.  Opal, in September.   Yeah, in terms of destruction, a lower than normal year, but I am sure the people around Pensacola, might have a different take.

[catfish1957]

Looking out on the expanses of the GOM, Caribbean, and Atlantic, it is a very strange view indeed for September 19th.  Yeah, Fish Storm Nigel is stirring up water in the Central Atlantic, but for the life of me, there is practically nothing going on during when should be the most active part of the year.  (See below)

The most interesting feature on the maps right now, is a 100 mile by 100 mile clump of preciptation lingering just NW of Yucatan 23N/92W.  If this thing would disassociate from the front, and get some low shear, this might crop up as a problem.  But there is almost like October N/S sheer, and as long as this rings true, this system will have no chance.

Lastly there are a couple of small tropical waves in the Carribean, but they are so close to land, I don't expect ay development.  Considering the elevated water temperatures basin wide, it does seem quite odd.

[libertybele]

Local news is forecasting Nigel as a rainmaker on the East coast.  We're getting our daily rains and wind gusts which are typical for our rainy season.

Hurricane Idalia hit the Big Bend area hard and it brought us tropical storm weather.

I would love for this to be the end of our storms, but we still have till the end of November to get through and we've had tropical storms into December before.

[Wingnut]

I would love for this to be the end of our storms, but we still have till the end of November to get through and we've had tropical storms into December before.

I'm Chill.   Don't play into the Cane porn. 

[catfish1957]

Extra -Tropical Storm No. 16 has formed off the east coast, and it looks like it might bring some strong T.S. Wind, waves, and rain to the east coast from about NC to New England.  Doesn't look too serious at this point, but Briefers in that vicinity might keep half an ey on it for between now and early next week, in case conditions warrant.



Otherwise, there is a pretty healthy looking wave out by Cape Verde that is way too soon to make any guesses.  Systems out there so far have pretty much been fish storms.  And right now there are enough lows digging out at about 40-50W to think this might be the same.

GOM and Caribbean?  Pretty clear.  There is NW/SE Axis low near Mobile to Key West, though no evidence of organization thus far.

[catfish1957]

24 Sep 2023 update....

Ophelia unwinding and inundanting east coast as extratropical low.

Newly formed Phillipe, poised to be the next fish storm and should turn northward several hundred miles east of Bermuda.

One decent Cape Verde Wave at about 9N/24W.  Several days away from being any kind of concern.  This one, for record though is more south than other recent disturbances, and at those latitudes should be less coductive to an earlier north turn.  Way to soon, to know if it is a threat though.

[catfish1957]

"R" and "P" storms appear to be trending fish variety, so no short term concerns, or updates

Of interest though is the GOM/Caribbean  looks like things are finally starting to wake up.  Recent frontal troughs reaching the gulf have been pretty spotty on convection.  But looking today, there is a nice chunk of "so far" unorganized convection in the entire Noth GOM at about Latitude 28.  No spin yet, but I am seeing some examples of the precipitation tranversing within 25-50 miles  of individual storm clusters.

The fact we have not seen a GOM originated storm this late, and with these temperature anomalies, is very surprising.  Out luck won't hold up for the rest of the season though.

[catfish1957]

Next up...  Tammy. 

Yes, we are at the "T" strom which means under most accounts indicates a very active hurricane season.  Luck continues good for CONUS as, this one's forecast at this point show only some T.S. impacts to the Lesser Antilles.

Knock on wood, thus far has been a very mild season overall with impacts, ....  i.e outside the catastrophic hit Idalia to FL in August. 
October and November are still prone to large storms in the eastern GOM and SE Coast. 

[Wingnut]

Good news is Gulf Temps are cooling faster than normal this year.  Hope the trend continues.

[libertybele]

Interesting -- they finally got around to acknowledging that Ian was a Cat 5. I am hopeful that we are in a continued calm cycle

2023 hurricane season: Least impactful for US in nearly a decade

According to initial estimates, between $3-$4 billion worth of damage was done during the 2023 hurricane season. The 2017 hurricane season ranks as the costliest in U.S. history, with around $300 billion worth of damage done. According to NOAA, a significant landfalling hurricane produces damage of around $22.8 billion.

 The fourth most active Atlantic basin hurricane season in the satellite era has drawn to a close, but what could have been a season of records left the U.S. relatively unscathed compared to recent years.

According to NOAA estimates, between $3-$4 billion worth of damage was done during the 2023 hurricane season, making it the quietest season since 2015 - another El Niño year.
Idalia was the only U.S. landfalling hurricane in 2023

Hurricane Idalia, which struck Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 3 hurricane, was the most impactful cyclone and produced more than 80% of the season’s damage.

Government estimates put the damage tally at around $2.5-$3 billion, which was largely centered along the Gulf Coast, between Tallahassee and Tampa Bay..............



https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/hurricane-season-2023-summary-recap

[catfish1957]

Thankful is was a "lite" season, especially in the western GOM sector.

We needed the break.