How bad will the Dems get shellacked next week?

[corbe]

The 2022 Midterm Elections: What the Historical Data Suggest.

History suggests Democratic loss of control of both House and Senate.

By John T. Woolley

In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, but gained seats in the Senate on six occasions. The president’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice.

The incumbent president’s ability to launch new major policy initiatives would be greatly weakened under divided government. If the Democrats lose control of either House, the Administration can expect to be the target of numerous disruptive congressional inquiries.

Using the data we discuss below (and provide here) we would expect Democratic seat losses of around 30 in the House and 3 in the Senate. There are large error bounds around these estimates. The prediction range includes the possibility of a narrow Democratic gain in the Senate, but loss of the majority in the House seems likely. Graphs below show the two-variable relationships.

Democrats have a 9 seat margin currently in the House (with four seats vacant) and the parties are tied in the Senate. A Democratic loss in the House of fewer than 12 seats would be very unexpected.

Like many midterm projections, these estimates are based on aggregated data. There is no measure of current national controversies (for example, abortion or Trump-related litigation controversies). Both will affect turnout. Nor do we have any explicit measure of conditions and candidates in specific elections. Turnout is likely to be larger than normal, and usually that would be expected to favor the Democrats.

<..snip..>

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2022-midterm-elections-what-the-historical-data-suggest

H/T @Lando Lincoln

[Lando Lincoln]

 

[Hoodat]

Senate:  Gain 4
House:   Gain 32

[Bigun]

Senate:  Gain 4
House:   Gain 32

That's so close it's scary! It will actually be 33 in the house.

House will be 245 republican (40 in name only) 190 Democrat (aka Communist)

Senate will be 53 republican (5 in name only) 46 democrat one avowed Communist.

[Right_in_Virginia]

A 'shellacking" should also include Governors, statehouses, Attorneys General, and school boards.

Remember this when you vote.

[DefiantMassRINO]

If "it's the economy, stupid" still holds up, Dems should get shellacked worse than anticipated.

The Dems domestic policies have economically harmed a large majority of Americans.

[Bigun]

A 'shellacking" should also include Governors, statehouses, Attorneys General, and school boards.

Remember this when you vote.

You forgot city and County governments.

[Hoodat]

Senate will be 53 republican (5 in name only) 46 democrat one avowed Communist.

Forty-five Democrats and two Communists.  Sanders and King.

[roamer_1]

Republicans will plow the field... and then... nothing.

[Bigun]

Republicans will plow the field... and then... nothing.

If history is a guide, yes but some in this new crop aren't going to play ball with that crowd. @roamer_1

[roamer_1]

If history is a guide, yes but some in this new crop aren't going to play ball with that crowd. @roamer_1

Even if that is true @Bigun , and Freedom Caucus grows by 25 or 30, it still has a long way to go to have numbers that give it real power inside the GOP... And what, 4 or 5 senators? That won't amount to a row of pins in the RINO GOP senate.

I'll take the win... but still, nothing.

[Cyber Liberty]

A 'shellacking" should also include Governors, statehouses, Attorneys General, and school boards.

Remember this when you vote.

Agreed.  Look for lots of action at the State level going forward as R's take more seats.  In Arizona, redistricting has been very good for our side.

[Bigun]

Even if that is true @Bigun , and Freedom Caucus grows by 25 or 30, it still has a long way to go to have numbers that give it real power inside the GOP... And what, 4 or 5 senators? That won't amount to a row of pins in the RINO GOP senate.

I'll take the win... but still, nothing.

You could be right @roamer_1 but I'm a bit more hopeful today than I was six months ago.

[Bigun]

Agreed.  Look for lots of action at the State level going forward as R's take more seats.  In Arizona, redistricting has been very good for our side.

And, believe it or not, THAT stuff is much more important than any of this federal cfrap.

[roamer_1]

You could be right @roamer_1 but I'm a bit more hopeful today than I was six months ago.

Hope always springs eternal @Bigun ... metered only by human nature.
Trust, but verify. 

[roamer_1]

Agreed.  Look for lots of action at the State level going forward as R's take more seats.  In Arizona, redistricting has been very good for our side.

If it were TEA, I would be more optimistic. 

[berdie]

And, believe it or not, THAT stuff is much more important than any of this federal cfrap.

And that is the truth!

[Lando Lincoln]

Okay, here’s the deal. Last November during Wisconsin’s annual deer hunting season - and in what may have been inspired or induced by bourbon - I made a small wager with my brother that the (R)’s would win back 40 seats. I’m sticking with that.

[Kamaji]

Okay, here’s the deal. Last November during Wisconsin’s annual deer hunting season - and in what may have been inspired or induced by bourbon - I made a small wager with my brother that the (R)’s would win back 40 seats. I’m sticking with that.

In vino, veritas.  One hopes!

[Hoodat]

Okay, here’s the deal. Last November during Wisconsin’s annual deer hunting season - and in what may have been inspired or induced by bourbon - I made a small wager with my brother that the (R)’s would win back 40 seats. I’m sticking with that.

What was the wager?

[Lando Lincoln]

What was the wager?

Friendly. 20 bucks.

[Lando Lincoln]

My bro is a good guy. You can discuss and disagree and the conversation never becomes disagreeable. He lives his life as a conservative but he votes (D). I can’t explain it.

[libertybele]

Being the optimist that I am ( ), I think that DEMS will hold a majority in the Senate and the GOP will narrowly win a majority in the House.

I'm basing much of that opinion on the DEMS capabilities of stealing elections.

[Gefn]

 

[Hoodat]

My bro is a good guy. You can discuss and disagree and the conversation never becomes disagreeable. He lives his life as a conservative but he votes (D). I can’t explain it.

Have you considered a DNA test?  They may have switched babies at the hospital.

[Wingnut]

Have you considered a DNA test?  They may have switched babies at the hospital.

There is always that one sibling that Mom dropped on their head.

[Lando Lincoln]

RCP has just flipped the NH senate race to Bolduc (R).  They project 54 for the (R)’s.

[Free Vulcan]

Everybody remembers when Trump was down a fair amount around 10 days out, then absolutely surged in momentum to win.

I think that's what's happening here. The Dems refuse to yield the path they set themselves on, and their support is cratering.

[DB]

There is always that one sibling that Mom dropped on their head.

What if you're an only child?

[roamer_1]

Everybody remembers when Trump was down a fair amount around 10 days out, then absolutely surged in momentum to win.

I think that's what's happening here. The Dems refuse to yield the path they set themselves on, and their support is cratering.

It's the media and the pollsters painting the numbers, I'll tell you what. Happens every time.

[Lando Lincoln]

Now, please have the earth move under Patty Murray’s feet in Washington.

[Free Vulcan]

It's the media and the pollsters painting the numbers, I'll tell you what. Happens every time.

Which may come back to bite, because with everything being manipulated to look like Dan Rather 'too close to call' is going to drive right-of-center turnout.

[roamer_1]

Which may come back to bite, because with everything being manipulated to look like Dan Rather 'too close to call' is going to drive right-of-center turnout.

That's why they have been backing off the paint the last two weeks, letting it ease back to the  real numbers... They have to in order to seem accurate and remain relevant.

They do it the same every time. Look at the TEA party - same thing.... A mighty tsunami that was not reported until the last month, and really not until the last 2 weeks.

Same with Tumpy... Didn't stand a chance all the way through summer... but all at once, right before the election, it started looking like a tossup... Pay it mind next election. You will see it.

[DB]

Well there's also the problem of conservatives refusing to be polled.

I also really doubt conservatives start cooperating with pollsters as the election nears to explain the swing.

The numbers are just guesses at best.

[Cyber Liberty]

RCP has just flipped the NH senate race to Bolduc (R).  They project 54 for the (R)’s.

And the Libertarian just dropped out of the AZ Senate race, and endorsed Blake Masters.

[Free Vulcan]

Well there's also the problem of conservatives refusing to be polled.

I also really doubt conservatives start cooperating with pollsters as the election nears to explain the swing.

The numbers are just guesses at best.

They've pretty much cornered themselves into a trap. There is so much media and swamp pressure to get Dem favored results, that conservatives won't participate anymore, and their false sampling creates fictional numbers.

Then the pollsters try and adjust for that the last week or two to keep their credibility, but it's too late for the Dems to change course as their fabricated support craters in real time.

It's actually a nice opening for conservatives to exploit.

[corbe]

[Bigun]

Now, please have the earth move under Patty Murray’s feet in Washington.

  

[andy58-in-nh]

RCP has just flipped the NH senate race to Bolduc (R).  They project 54 for the (R)’s.

I cannot wait to vote next Tuesday, for Don Bolduc and every other Republican on the ballot. New Hampshire has had enough of the Democrats.

We've actually got a decent shot at seeing a GOP governor (as we have now), legislature (ditto), and two Republican congressional representatives and one Senator.

[Lando Lincoln]

A friend of mine is suggesting the Illinois governorship is in play. I don’t believe it since everything is controlled by Cook County. But…

[DB]

What's that rumbling going on? Could it be...

[corbe]

A friend of mine is suggesting the Illinois governorship is in play. I don’t believe it since everything is controlled by Cook County. But…

   Illinois would be sweet; they've controlled that State since at least 60.

[libertybele]

I cannot wait to vote next Tuesday, for Don Bolduc and every other Republican on the ballot. New Hampshire has had enough of the Democrats.

We've actually got a decent shot at seeing a GOP governor (as we have now), legislature (ditto), and two Republican congressional representatives and one Senator.

I wish I could get excited about voting.  I just can't.  I'll vote for DeSantis and my Rep, but I'm really not interested in any other races.

Here are our county's voter requirements -- nothing has changed.  Notice that a Voter ID card is not required.  One that really floors me is a "neighborhood association" ID.  So, as long as you belong to an association, who cares if you're ILLEGAL??  Also, no worries, if you don't have the proper ID, you can vote using a provisional ballot. 

Identification Requirements for Voting
General Election - November 8, 2022
When voting at an Early Voting site or on Election Day,
you will be asked to present a current and valid form of
identification that includes a photograph and signature,
for example, a Florida Driver License, or two separate
forms which together contain this information.
Approved forms of identification include:
• Military ID
• Veteran Health ID Card
• Debit or Credit Card
• United States Passport
• Retirement Center ID
• Florida Driver License
• Florida ID Card
• Public Assistance ID
• Neighborhood Association ID
• Student ID
• Government Employee ID
• Florida Concealed Weapon
or Firearm License
If you do not have the required identification, Florida Law
allows you to vote a Provisional Ballot

[Wingnut]

What if you're an only child?

Then you were that "one"

[corbe]

[DB]

Then you were that "one"

That makes my head hurt.

[Idiot]

With all of this optimistic repub news..I'm expecting a disaster. When things look this positive, look out below.

[DB]

With all of this optimistic repub news..I'm expecting a disaster. When things look this positive, look out below.

Well I'm going with the theory that conservatives aren't responding to pollsters and therefore the pollsters have no idea what's truly coming down the pipe.
That if pollsters think it's close, it isn't - at least until proven otherwise...

[Wingnut]

That makes my head hurt.

LOL!

[libertybele]

With all of this optimistic repub news..I'm expecting a disaster. When things look this positive, look out below.

I'm right there with you on that thought.