50-Year U.S. Summer Temperature Trends: ALL 36 Climate Models Are Too Warm
9 hours ago Guest Blogger 40 Comments
From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Global Warming Blog
Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
I’ll get right to the results, which are pretty straightforward.
As seen in the accompanying plot, 50-year (1973-2022) summer (June/July/August) temperature trends for the contiguous 48 U.S. states from 36 CMIP-6 climate model experiments average nearly twice the warming rate as observed by the NOAA climate division dataset.
The 36 models are those catalogued at the KNMI Climate Explorer website, using Tas (surface air temperature), one member per model, for the ssp245 radiative forcing scenario. (The website says there are 40 models, but I found that four of the models have double entries). The surface temperature observations come from NOAA/NCEI.
The official NOAA observations produce a 50-year summer temperature trend of +0.26 C/decade for the U.S., while the model trends range from +0.28 to +0.71 C/decade.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/20/50-year-u-s-summer-temperature-trends-all-36-climate-models-are-too-warm/
