US Intelligence Predicted Resurgence of Islamic State Group Threat, Declassified Report Shows
15 Sep 2022
Associated Press | By Nomaan Merchant
WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence officials predicted two years ago that the Islamic State group would likely regain much of its former strength and global influence, particularly if American and other Western forces reduced their role in countering the extremist movement, according to a newly declassified report.
Analysts said many of the judgments in the 2020 report appear prescient today, particularly as the group is resurgent in Afghanistan following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal of American forces last year.
The Islamic State group is no longer controlling huge swaths of territory or staging attacks in the United States as it did several years ago before a major U.S.-led offensive. But it is now slowly rebuilding some core capabilities in Iraq and Syria and increasingly fighting local governments in places including Afghanistan, where an affiliate of the IS group, also known by the acronym ISIS, is fighting the ruling Taliban following the U.S. withdrawal.
“If the United States and our partners pull back or withdraw further from areas where ISIS is active, the group’s trajectory will increasingly depend on local governments' will and capability to fill the resulting security voids,” says the report, originally published in classified form in May 2020, months after then-President Donald Trump's administration reached an agreement with the Taliban to pull out American troops.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/09/15/us-intelligence-predicted-resurgence-of-islamic-state-group-threat-declassified-report-shows.html
