Another Senate Race Is Slipping Away ?

[HikerGuy83]

538 gives Trafalgar an A- rating, and they have Mark Kelly by a point.  It's going to be very close. 

Average separation is 3.5 points which means the needle has move significantly. 

Wonder if we can get some of the left wing idiots to pledge to move to CA if Lake/Masters win ?  That or move to Washington state where that total moron Murray can represent them.

[Cyber Liberty]

Average separation is 3.5 points which means the needle has move significantly. 

Wonder if we can get some of the left wing idiots to pledge to move to CA if Lake/Masters win ?  That or move to Washington state where that total moron Murray can represent them.

Maybe Murry can.  She's in a tight race too, unexpectedly.

[Wingnut]

Masters is Trump endorsed and an election denier.

The word is that the democrats crossed lines to vote for the Trump endorsees so that they would win primaries and be easier to defeat in the general.

That is just the scuttle I've read.  Don't know if it is true.

Looks like that was a failed dem strategy everywhere it was implemented! 

[HikerGuy83]

Maybe Murry can.  She's in a tight race too, unexpectedly.

In some ways I hope she stays.

If they get some intelligent left wingers in there....we could be in trouble.

[Hoodat]

In some ways I hope she stays.

Words fail me.  There is no way anyone other than a DailyKos-troll DU-disciple would post on this site that they prefer Patty Murray in the Senate over a Conservative Republican.

[roamer_1]

Maybe Murry can.  She's in a tight race too, unexpectedly.

'Unexpected' is an understatement by an order of magnitude.

[rustynail]

Kelly tops Masters by 6 points in Arizona Senate race: poll

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3712213-kelly-tops-masters-by-6-points-in-arizona-senate-race-poll/

[HikerGuy83]

'Unexpected' is an understatement by an order of magnitude.

538 says the race isn't so tight. 

I guess it depends on who you believe.

Murray is an idiot.  But Washington is never going to elect a republican senator.   Better an idiot who can't do much damage than a true left wing change advocate who could make things messy.

[HikerGuy83]

Kelly tops Masters by 6 points in Arizona Senate race: poll

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3712213-kelly-tops-masters-by-6-points-in-arizona-senate-race-poll/

I have a work colleaugue who listens to the radio.

I was in his office when Sean Hannity was calling the race a draw.

It's amazing.

[roamer_1]

538 says the race isn't so tight. 

I guess it depends on who you believe.

Murray is an idiot.  But Washington is never going to elect a republican senator.   Better an idiot who can't do much damage than a true left wing change advocate who could make things messy.

As I said elsewhere, the mere possibility of upending Murray is an astonishment.

[HikerGuy83]

As I said elsewhere, the mere possibility of upending Murray is an astonishment.

True that.

It's almost as bad as Alan Cranston in CA.  I used to scratch my head and question....how, in a state of 35 million (at the time) is this the best we can do.

Murray is probably related to him.

[rustynail]

Arizona Senate race: Libertarian candidate drops out, endorses Blake Masters

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/arizona-senate-race-libertarian-candidate-drops-out-endorses-blake-masters/ar-AA13C49d

[catfish1957]

Arizona Senate race: Libertarian candidate drops out, endorses Blake Masters

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/arizona-senate-race-libertarian-candidate-drops-out-endorses-blake-masters/ar-AA13C49d

Good to see.  Too bad he didn't commit before early voting.

[cato potatoe]

The Libertarian was averaging 4%.  I don't understand why they bothered to field a candidate when Blake Masters is the closest thing they are going to have from the fiscal side of things, as well as foreign policy.

[roamer_1]

The Libertarian was averaging 4%.  I don't understand why they bothered to field a candidate when Blake Masters is the closest thing they are going to have from the fiscal side of things, as well as foreign policy.

For the same reason I quit Republicans. Your 'closest thing' is nowhere near good enough... and usually a damnable lie.

[cato potatoe]

For the same reason I quit Republicans. Your 'closest thing' is nowhere near good enough... and usually a damnable lie.

Usually, but all victories are incremental, and Blake Masters is on the fringe of politics in Arizona.  Libertarians have a tendency for self-harm by obsessing with ideological purity.  The socialists are glad to move the ball down the field one inch at a time.  The AZ Libertarians probably should have given Masters a chance in 2022, and nominate a candidate in 2028 if he strayed too far.

[roamer_1]

Usually, but all victories are incremental
[...]

I have been told that my whole life... For nearly nothing.

Libertarians have a tendency for self-harm by obsessing with ideological purity.

Yeah... whatever. Principled Conservatives are painted with that same damn brush.

The socialists are glad to move the ball down the field one inch at a time. 

LOL! No... They move the ball down the field like a freight train. In HUGE leaps and bounds. And rarely fail. Even when out of power.

The AZ Libertarians probably should have given Masters a chance in 2022, and nominate a candidate in 2028 if he strayed too far.

Nonsense. IOW, reject their own who stand upon their platform for more vapid promises from Republicans? Everybody is a Conservative during election. Every one of them says all the right things to get into office. And you expect blind faith in those snake charmers?

You know, Conservative libertarians used to be represented in the Republican party. Goldwater. That's the stuff that even more liberal libertarians can find agreement with. There ain't enough Goldwater (or Reagan) left in the Republican party to amount to a fart in a windstorm. If you want libertarians (and Conservatives) to come your way, it takes representing them. REALLY.

I have nothing against Masters, except that his name sounds like an action figure. The point remains. Your closest thing is no where good enough. And the lie that it will ever change was threadbare twenty years ago.

[cato potatoe]

You know, Conservative libertarians used to be represented in the Republican party. Goldwater. That's the stuff that even more liberal libertarians can find agreement with. There ain't enough Goldwater (or Reagan) left in the Republican party to amount to a fart in a windstorm. If you want libertarians (and Conservatives) to come your way, it takes representing them. REALLY.

Even Goldwater was unworthy.  The Libertarians fielded a candidate as soon as they could (1980) and he nearly lost reelection.  I used to be involved with the libertarians, but they tend to have unrealistic ideas and pathologies like Ayn Rand (who also repudiated Goldwater, incidentally).

[roamer_1]

Even Goldwater was unworthy.  The Libertarians fielded a candidate as soon as they could (1980) and he nearly lost reelection.  I used to be involved with the libertarians, but they tend to have unrealistic ideas and pathologies like Ayn Rand (who also repudiated Goldwater, incidentally).

Libertarians are just as divided as any... Their conservatives were IN the Republican party. No more.

[HikerGuy83]

Arizona Senate race: Libertarian candidate drops out, endorses Blake Masters

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/arizona-senate-race-libertarian-candidate-drops-out-endorses-blake-masters/ar-AA13C49d

This actually seems like a big deal.

[Wingnut]

This actually seems like a big deal.

@HikerGuy83
Well. The press coverage is a plus.  But when did early voting start in AZ?

[DB]

@HikerGuy83
Well. The press coverage is a plus.  But when did early voting start in AZ?

I could be wrong but I think there is only absentee voting right now.

[Hoodat]

That is just the scuttle I've read.

On DummieUnderground.

Don't know if it is true.

Yet you didn't hesitate to post it here.

[HikerGuy83]

@HikerGuy83
Well. The press coverage is a plus.  But when did early voting start in AZ?

October 12th.

And your point is well made. 

We can only hope it helps Masters out.

It is amazing that the RCP shows four pick ups in the senate for the GOP and that includes Masters.  Not sure how that works....since Kelly is still shown (by RCP) as being ahead in the polls.

But I'll certainly take it.

Every poll shown on 538 has Kelly leading....but some of them by less than 2 points.  I still don't get why they include those rubes over at Center Street.

[HikerGuy83]

Don't see Masters pulling this one out.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

October 12th.

And your point is well made. 

We can only hope it helps Masters out.

It is amazing that the RCP shows four pick ups in the senate for the GOP and that includes Masters.  Not sure how that works....since Kelly is still shown (by RCP) as being ahead in the polls.

But I'll certainly take it.

Every poll shown on 538 has Kelly leading....but some of them by less than 2 points.  I still don't get why they include those rubes over at Center Street.

RCP assumed that the polls were biased against Republicans, but I think a lot of polls had already corrected for that.

[HikerGuy83]

RCP assumed that the polls were biased against Republicans, but I think a lot of polls had already corrected for that.

O.K.

Thank you for that.

Polling has certainly lost it's flavor.

[Cyber Liberty]

Don't see Masters pulling this one out.

Probably not...but there are still about a half a million uncounted ballots.  At this rate we'll run up against the Cert deadline.

[Bigun]

And that's the plan!  Same with Kari unfortunately.

Where are the lawyers and the lawsuits?

[Kamaji]

And that's the plan!  Same with Kari unfortunately.

Where are the lawyers and the lawsuits?

Exactly.

[HikerGuy83]

Probably not...but there are still about a half a million uncounted ballots.  At this rate we'll run up against the Cert deadline.

This is unbelievable.

How did Maricopa not do EVERYTHING they could to ensure a tight fast election.

Given the history of the last two years, I am embarrassed for them.

[catfish1957]

This is unbelievable.

How did Maricopa not do EVERYTHING they could to ensure a tight fast election.

Given the history of the last two years, I am embarrassed for them.

Again... the longer the window of counting, the easier the cheat.

[DB]

Again... the longer the window of counting, the easier the cheat.

Have to find out how many votes you need accurately first...

[Hoodat]

Here's what is going on.  With the voting machine issues, the scanners reject the ballots on the third attempt.  At that point, the voter can either go to another machine (at another precinct) or the voter can submit their ballot as is and have an election official put it in a machine later.  It is these ballots that are being manipulated now.  If the ballots still don't work, then they go down as votes for Hobbs and Kelly.

When we went through this two years ago, there was a steady trend of red gains in the days after the election.  (The only thing stopping it was a hard deadline set by Arizona law).  This same red increase should be happening now.  Yet the trend in heavily Republican areas is going blue.  The election workers are essentially counting Lake/Masters votes as votes for Hobbs/Kelly.

[Hoodat]

Also, 17,000 ballots were added to the total last night.  Wednesday, Maricopa county had reported that there were 275,000 ballots that had been dropped off on election day.  This morning, they said that number was 292,000.  In other words, between election day and today, 17,000 ballots got added to the count.

[libertybele]

Here's what is going on.  With the voting machine issues, the scanners reject the ballots on the third attempt.  At that point, the voter can either go to another machine (at another precinct) or the voter can submit their ballot as is and have an election official put it in a machine later.  It is these ballots that are being manipulated now.  If the ballots still don't work, then they go down as votes for Hobbs and Kelly.

When we went through this two years ago, there was a steady trend of red gains in the days after the election.  (The only thing stopping it was a hard deadline set by Arizona law).  This same red increase should be happening now.  Yet the trend in heavily Republican areas is going blue.  The election workers are essentially counting Lake/Masters votes as votes for Hobbs/Kelly.

      Same ole same ole method of cheating.  Color me surprised.

[HikerGuy83]

    Same ole same ole method of cheating.  Color me surprised.

This is unbelievable. 

There should be a "swat" team of some kind  that comes in when the idiots in charge can't get it done right or on time. 

How do they explain this.

[HikerGuy83]

Are there other states having these issues ?

Seems like we are the only one (We, being AZ, the state that became the center of controversy in 2020) that can't seem to run an election right.

Un-freaking-believable.

[libertybele]

This is unbelievable. 

There should be a "swat" team of some kind  that comes in when the idiots in charge can't get it done right or on time. 

How do they explain this.

Joe needs to send in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys.

[HikerGuy83]

Joe needs to send in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys.

Yes, he should.

That would pretty much convince everyone the election was a pile of poop.

[HikerGuy83]

Well, it's over in the senate race. 

Kelly pretty much cleans it up with 11% more votes than Masters.

It didn't just slip away.....it slid down the hill, out through the field, and into a sink hole.

[HikerGuy83]

Finchem got stomped.

[HikerGuy83]

AZ could have 6 of the 9 seats in the house.

To offset the giveaway to Kelly.

[HikerGuy83]

Hate to pick this scab, but Masters got creamed. 

He wasn't close. 

The blathering about polling was all wrong.

We have anaother senate seat coming up in 2024 and from what I can tell we don't have anyone worth running. 

WTH is wrong with the GOP ?

[Free Vulcan]

Hate to pick this scab, but Masters got creamed. 

He wasn't close. 

The blathering about polling was all wrong.

We have anaother senate seat coming up in 2024 and from what I can tell we don't have anyone worth running. 

WTH is wrong with the GOP ?

It was only 5%, which is a 2.5% swing, and that after being wildly outspent because Mitch pulled funds.

Masters actually did better than would normally be expected, even if the vote was on the up and up.

[HikerGuy83]

It was only 5%, which is a 2.5% swing, and that after being wildly outspent because Mitch pulled funds.

Masters actually did better than would normally be expected, even if the vote was on the up and up.

Michael Bloomberg showed that money only goes so far.

While I won't says Masters was a "bad" candidate, his campaign wasn't that great.

It seems to start out with positions that were easily framed as extreme.  He started backpeddling on some them and that wasn't lost to his opposition. 

Many GOP candidates won.

Lake (if she winds up losing)....but barely lost.

Masters got hammered, by comparison.

I only bring this up because I have to wonder who is thinking about going against Sinema in 2024 and what they are doing to prep themselves to have a good shot at unseating her.  I like Sinema, but I would prefer a solid conservative (and, of course, that is always a broad reaching term) in there instead.

Sinema barely won.....again, against a not-so-great candidate. 

I think a good Republican candidate easily wins.  But that candidate needs to be prepping now and the GOP needs to be learning from it's past mistakes in order to win.

Sinema is an incumbent which means she has some built in vitality.  It will be interesting to see if her party goes after her and how she plans to run again in 2024.  Either way, if we just show up with someone (which is how I see Masters coming onto the scene) it's not going to end well......again.

[HikerGuy83]

Masters actually did better than would normally be expected, even if the vote was on the up and up.

I think this is a testament to just how many true Republicans there are in the state.

As I said above, Master's campaign had very little appeal beyond the base. 

If you know you have that much "de facto" support just because you are Republican (and not a RINO....I certainly don't think Masters was that), you know you need to peel off others (including the McPain followers) to make up the difference.

Not an easy task, but the right candidate does it and wins.

[Free Vulcan]

Michael Bloomberg showed that money only goes so far.

Presidential campaigns are a bit different bird. You at least need to keep relatively equal with your opponent in a typical campaign if for not other reason to get your name out there. Mitch pulling his money killed Masters.

Masters got hammered, by comparison.

Still talking about small margins. A 2.5% swing might be talking 5-10 votes per precinct.

And Masters made missteps early on no doubt. Kelly made his too. By the end Masters was running a good race, but he had no money. I think he was outspent 3-1 and only lost 5%. I don't know many candidates at the Senate level that have done that.

[HikerGuy83]

Presidential campaigns are a bit different bird. You at least need to keep relatively equal with your opponent in a typical campaign if for not other reason to get your name out there. Mitch pulling his money killed Masters.

I was referencing Bloombergs 102 million spend for a 3rd term as mayor of New York.

He barely won.  And it showed money only goes so far.

[HikerGuy83]

And Masters made missteps early on no doubt. Kelly made his too. By the end Masters was running a good race, but he had no money. I think he was outspent 3-1 and only lost 5%. I don't know many candidates at the Senate level that have done that.

Masters was not a good candidate....period.

That he only lost by 5% tells you something.

I don't believe it was spending that cost him.