Another Senate Race Is Slipping Away ?

[HikerGuy83]

With Blake Masters down by 8 points, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is pulling ads from AZ, as well two other states.

Many see this as an admission that the headwins in AZ may be just to great for Masters. 

Or else they are hoping that private doners are going going to carry the load so they can focus on other races that need help.

I honestly don't know that much about Masters. 

But it seems like AZ will have two democratic senators until Sinema comes up for re-election in 2024.

At least the way things are going.

Per what I am reading.

[mystery-ak]

pinging @Cyber Liberty

What do you think..I have read the same about this race.

[HikerGuy83]

Masters is Trump endorsed and an election denier.

The word is that the democrats crossed lines to vote for the Trump endorsees so that they would win primaries and be easier to defeat in the general.

That is just the scuttle I've read.  Don't know if it is true.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Can you post a link to the poll and media source @HikerGuy83 ?   I'd like to dig a little deeper into both.

Thanks.

[HikerGuy83]

Can you post a link to the poll and media source @HikerGuy83 ?   I'd like to dig a little deeper into both.

Thanks.

Sure.

https://theweek.com/republicans/1015932/senate-republican-pac-cuts-ad-spending-in-at-least-4-key-battleground-races

This one discusses:

1. The ads that were pulled.
2. Alternatives that might be used.
3. How the committee has already spent a bunch of money.
4. How money is needed where candidates did not (or could not) do enough fund raising.

Here is the polling from 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/

[HikerGuy83]

Molly Hemingway lays into Mitch McConnell over his comments about candidate quality.

Unfortunately, he's already let the words out....and the left is just howling happy.....thanks Mitch.

https://thefederalist.com/2022/08/19/come-on-mitch-mcconnell-republicans-need-you-to-step-up-and-lead/

[catfish1957]

Sure.

https://theweek.com/republicans/1015932/senate-republican-pac-cuts-ad-spending-in-at-least-4-key-battleground-races

This one discusses:

1. The ads that were pulled.
2. Alternatives that might be used.
3. How the committee has already spent a bunch of money.
4. How money is needed where candidates did not (or could not) do enough fund raising.

Here is the polling from 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/

Article references NYT and Politico.  Not exactly great sources for objective news.

Despite Turtle's defeatist attitude, I wouldn't write off AZ, GA, and PA just yet.   A lot economic data to hit the news cycles between now and early November.

[HikerGuy83]

Article references NYT and Politico.  Not exactly great sources for objective news.

Despite Turtle's defeatist attitude, I wouldn't write off AZ, GA, and PA just yet.   A lot economic data to hit the news cycles between now and early November.

It's data.

538 shows Masters is down by eight points. 

That could change. 

I'd rather he were up 8 points though.

[HikerGuy83]

No updates on polls (of which I am aware).

[Cyber Liberty]

No updates on polls (of which I am aware).

I don't believe polls from people who have a stake in the election results.  That means pretty much all media-purchased polls.  Once it's understood today's polls are engineered to change public opinion rather than simply reflect it, you'll never look at polls the same way ever again.

[HikerGuy83]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/arizona-blake-masters-backtracks-abortion-scrubs-campaign-website-rcna44808

"I am 100% pro-life," Masters' website read as of Thursday morning.

That language is now gone.

Another notable deletion: a line that detailed his support for "a federal personhood law (ideally a Constitutional amendment) that recognizes that unborn babies are human beings that may not be killed."

*******************

It seems that Masters might realize that he's in trouble. 

I don't know what irritates me more. 

That he took it down or that he didn't think about it to begin with.

Taking it down will likely cost him some support. 

My question: What does Blake Masters really believe and want to do ?

This doesn't look good.

[HikerGuy83]

I don't believe polls from people who have a stake in the election results.  That means pretty much all media-purchased polls.  Once it's understood today's polls are engineered to change public opinion rather than simply reflect it, you'll never look at polls the same way ever again.

It is quite clear that many polls are set up that way.  However, all indications that there are ways to extract information from them.

Masters is altering his campaign (or so it would seem).  Why ?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

[Cyber Liberty]

It is quite clear that many polls are set up that way.  However, all indications that there are ways to extract information from them.

Masters is altering his campaign (or so it would seem).  Why ?

You do know that Mitch McConnell prefers to have Mark Kelly than an America First Republican, don't you?  Masters has to fight both the Democrat Nominee in addition to fighting the GOPe.

If you choose to believe Turtle, then that's on you.  I prefer to fight for the America Firster despite the attempts to steer us into a "No Vote."

I have a say.  I also have some control over donations made by my County's GOP.

[HikerGuy83]

You do know that Mitch McConnell prefers to have Mark Kelly than an America First Republican, don't you?  Masters has to fight both the Democrat Nominee in addition to fighting the GOPe.

If you choose to believe Turtle, then that's on you.  I prefer to fight for the America Firster despite the attempts to steer us into a "No Vote."

I have a say.  I also have some control over donations made by my County's GOP.

Mitch has needed to go for quite some time.  I sometimes wonder if he isn't possesed by the Spirit of John McStain. 

And true conservatives (which is not all Trump endorsees) have always had to fight to the RINO's in the part as well as the democrats. 

They do and they often win. 

That should be cause for hope.

Masters, IME, shot himself in one foot and has the gun pointed at the other. 

He's changing his site.  Is he hoping people don't notice...in today's world ?

Something's gotta give and right now it does not look good for Masters....he's handing them a grenade they can use to blow him up.

[GtHawk]

Where are his hands?

[Hoodat]

With Blake Masters down by 8 points standing up against RINOs that sold us out two years ago, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is pulling ads from AZ

There, fixed it.

[GtHawk]

Mitch has needed to go for quite some time.  I sometimes wonder if he isn't possesed by the Spirit of John McStain. 

And true conservatives (which is not all Trump endorsees) have always had to fight to the RINO's in the part as well as the democrats. 

They do and they often win. 

That should be cause for hope.

Masters, IME, shot himself in one foot and has the gun pointed at the other. 

He's changing his site.  Is he hoping people don't notice...in today's world ?

Something's gotta give and right now it does not look good for Masters....he's handing them a grenade they can use to blow him up.

Bitch, er, Mitch doesn't want a republican majority, and certainly not of the MAGA kind because then he would have to actually produce. with a democrat majority B, er Mitch can continue being a paper tiger all roar and no bite and the stupid republican will continue to say 'wow that Mitch is working so hard for us, too bad he doesn't have a majority'.

[libertybele]

The GOP can take the House in the mid terms but if the DEMS gain seats in the Senate well, you can kiss your derriere good-bye.

[Cyber Liberty]

Mitch has needed to go for quite some time.  I sometimes wonder if he isn't possesed by the Spirit of John McStain. 

And true conservatives (which is not all Trump endorsees) have always had to fight to the RINO's in the part as well as the democrats. 

They do and they often win. 

That should be cause for hope.

Masters, IME, shot himself in one foot and has the gun pointed at the other. 

He's changing his site.  Is he hoping people don't notice...in today's world ?

Something's gotta give and right now it does not look good for Masters....he's handing them a grenade they can use to blow him up.

There is no way in Hell I will vote for Kelly. I also don't back seat drive candidates I support,  nor do I fret about their tactics.

[Cyber Liberty]

There, fixed it.

The RNSC is not pulling ads. That's a lie told to people who don't do research so they won't vote for conservatives.

[HikerGuy83]

Bitch, er, Mitch doesn't want a republican majority, and certainly not of the MAGA kind because then he would have to actually produce. with a democrat majority B, er Mitch can continue being a paper tiger all roar and no bite and the stupid republican will continue to say 'wow that Mitch is working so hard for us, too bad he doesn't have a majority'.

Why is he even around ?

He's starting to remind me of Pelosi.

[HikerGuy83]

The RNSC is not pulling ads. That's a lie told to people who don't do research so they won't vote for conservatives.

Seems just about everyone is reporting they are.

And this was from one of the articles:

“We’re leaving the door wide open in Arizona, but we want to move additional resources to other offensive opportunities that have become increasingly competitive, as well as an unexpected expense in Ohio,” said Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law. “We think the fundamentals of this election strongly favor Republicans, we see multiple paths to winning the majority, and we are going to invest heavily and strategically to achieve that goal.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/26/shifting-strategy-senate-gop-super-pac-cancels-ad-buys-in-arizona-alaska-00053965

[HikerGuy83]

The GOP can take the House in the mid terms but if the DEMS gain seats in the Senate well, you can kiss your derriere good-bye.

If that happens, we better pray for Clarence Thomas's health.

[Bigun]

Seems just about everyone is reporting they are.

And this was from one of the articles:

“We’re leaving the door wide open in Arizona, but we want to move additional resources to other offensive opportunities that have become increasingly competitive, as well as an unexpected expense in Ohio,” said Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law. “We think the fundamentals of this election strongly favor Republicans, we see multiple paths to winning the majority, and we are going to invest heavily and strategically to achieve that goal.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/26/shifting-strategy-senate-gop-super-pac-cancels-ad-buys-in-arizona-alaska-00053965

You do know that just about all American media is owned by just six corporations, don't you?

[HikerGuy83]

You do know that just about all American media is owned by just six corporations, don't you?

So, if the RNSC ran adds.....what are you telling us ?

[HikerGuy83]

There is no way in Hell I will vote for Kelly. I also don't back seat drive candidates I support,  nor do I fret about their tactics.

Everyone gets to make their own call.

I certainly have no interest in Kelly. 

I am also not going to ignore disingenuous behaviour by people like Masters. 

[Bigun]

So, if the RNSC ran adds.....what are you telling us ?

I'm telling you that they ALL sing off the same sheet of music because they are ALL owned by the same people.

Candidates buy ad space where they can get it.

[Bigun]

So, if the RNSC ran adds.....what are you telling us ?

The RNSC is run by Mitch Mc Connell. Blake didn't kiss McConnell's ring.  Do you think the bastards in Washington should be able to select your representatives for you?

[Bigun]

Everyone gets to make their own call.

I certainly have no interest in Kelly. 

I am also not going to ignore disingenuous behaviour by people like Masters.

Anyone who votes for ANY Democrat for anything now is beyond stupid!

[HikerGuy83]

I'm telling you that they ALL sing off the same sheet of music because they are ALL owned by the same people.

Candidates buy ad space where they can get it.

And the people they quoted:

1. were lying
2. didn't say what was reported
3. or they are really pulling the ads.

Masters is behind. 

I can't help that.

[HikerGuy83]

The RNSC is run by Mitch Mc Connell. Blake didn't kiss McConnell's ring.  Do you think the bastards in Washington should be able to select your representatives for you?

The RNSC is a symptom, not a cause.

So far, the AZ GOP has had little success in getting people into the senate chamber on our behalf.

McSally...loses twice.

Masters isn't looking so good.

I doubt they'll unseat Sinema.

Boy, do I get depressed.

[Bigun]

I have a VERY low tolerance for Democrat trolls!

[HikerGuy83]

The RNSC is run by Mitch Mc Connell. Blake didn't kiss McConnell's ring.  Do you think the bastards in Washington should be able to select your representatives for you?

I realize that many don't like it when we look inward and ask just how we are screwing this up. 

But we seem to be (screwing it up).

The whole Lake/Robson fight was really just a joy to watch [heavy dose of sarcasm].

[Cyber Liberty]

Seems just about everyone is reporting they are.

And this was from one of the articles:

“We’re leaving the door wide open in Arizona, but we want to move additional resources to other offensive opportunities that have become increasingly competitive, as well as an unexpected expense in Ohio,” said Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law. “We think the fundamentals of this election strongly favor Republicans, we see multiple paths to winning the majority, and we are going to invest heavily and strategically to achieve that goal.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/26/shifting-strategy-senate-gop-super-pac-cancels-ad-buys-in-arizona-alaska-00053965

Politico is an enemy of Republicans. I'm disappointed to hear where you get your news, frankly.

[HikerGuy83]

Politico is an enemy of Republicans. I'm disappointed to hear where you get your news, frankly.

Yes, we've been through this before....so you can save it. 

I get my news from a lot of places.

You called the statement they are pulling ads a lie. 

Care to share those links ?

[HikerGuy83]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nrsc-books-2-2-million-arizona-wisconsin-ads-controversy-canceled-spots

[Cyber Liberty]

Yes, we've been through this before....so you can save it. 

I get my news from a lot of places.

You called the statement they are pulling ads a lie. 

Care to share those links ?

Nope.  I'd be happy if you quoted JUST ONE Source that doesn't hate us.

[Hoodat]

Seems just about everyone is reporting they are.

Is this your emotions talking?  Or do you have a link to a news account that really says this?

[Hoodat]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nrsc-books-2-2-million-arizona-wisconsin-ads-controversy-canceled-spots

NRSC books more than $2.2 million in Arizona, Wisconsin ads after controversy over canceled spots

From your link:

GOP Senate campaign group blasts 'false' New York Times report on ad spending

Gee, the NY Times lied about Republicans.  Who saw that coming?

[Cyber Liberty]

From your link:

GOP Senate campaign group blasts 'false' New York Times report on ad spending

Gee, the NY Times lied about Republicans.  Who saw that coming?

Be patient. He's looking up links from the WaPo and NYT.

[HikerGuy83]

From the Fox link:

According to The Times' piece, the NRSC canceled roughly $10 million in ad buys across multiple media markets in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin due to "a likely sign of financial troubles" stemming from slowing online contributions.

"This is false, as I told Shane," NRSC communications director Chris Hartline tweeted, referencing the article's author, Shane Goldmacher.

********************

I believe the "false" claim was about it being about financial troubel.

That rebuttle existed in the Politico add. 

The claim that they pulled the adds has not been rebutted, as far as I am concerned.

I forgot how rabid this board can be when it comes to counter discussion.

[Hoodat]

From the Fox link:

According to The Times' piece, the NRSC canceled roughly $10 million in ad buys across multiple media markets in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin due to "a likely sign of financial troubles" stemming from slowing online contributions.

"This is false, as I told Shane," NRSC communications director Chris Hartline tweeted, referencing the article's author, Shane Goldmacher.

********************

I believe the "false" claim was about it being about financial troubel.

If you had simply continued on to the very next sentence, you would have gotten your answer:

"The NRSC is not cancelling spending. There is money being moved from the I.E. side back to the NRSC side of the wall," he added. "Nothing in this story is accurate. The NRSC has already spent $36 million on TV and has tens of millions more reserved."

Heck, he even tweeted it.

https://twitter.com/ChrisHartline/status/1559254143348391938


So again, I am not sure why you continue to cling to false DNC talking points.

[HikerGuy83]

On another site, someone has an article showing Kelly dwarfing Masters in fundraising.....50 mill to 4 mill. 

OpenSecrets has it at 52 million to 5 million.

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2022&id=AZS1

[Hoodat]

On another site, someone has an article showing Kelly dwarfing Masters in fundraising.....50 mill to 4 mill. 

OpenSecrets has it at 52 million to 5 million.

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2022&id=AZS1

That's really beautiful and all.  But this has zero connection to the false claim that the GOP is cutting back on spending in Arizona.  Let's stick with one false DNC talking point at a time, shall we?

[HikerGuy83]

Fox News/Beacon has Masters trailing by 8 points. 

[HikerGuy83]

https://ktar.com/story/5213300/blake-masters-says-he-wont-apologize-for-abortion-stance-after-campaign-website-scrubbing/

Masters has softened the harder edges of his confrontational style and moved toward the center on key issues since emerging atop a crowded GOP field in this month’s primary.

He said he’s been going on the attack to clarify his abortion stance with the general election against Democrat Mark Kelly about two months away.

The Republican posted an ad on Twitter on Thursday that said he supported commonsense regulation around abortion.

Masters also said Kelly’s abortion views were extreme, takes he has since added to his website.

Kelly called the June Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade “a giant step backward for our country.”

“I added some language to [the website] that points out Mark Kelly calls me a pro-life extremist and I’m pro-life, I don’t make apologies for that,” Masters said.

“But I added some language to call him out, actually, that they’re lying about me and my position because they’re the extremists.”

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This seems pretty reasonable to me. 

He needs to hammer Kelly over his statements on Roe. 

Allowing the people of the states to make their own choices is a step backwards ?

Kelly is a puppet.

[Cyber Liberty]

Fox News/Beacon has Masters trailing by 8 points.

Good!  The poll is the usual media poll lie, but it helps our side to run like we're 8 points behind.

[Cyber Liberty]

https://ktar.com/story/5213300/blake-masters-says-he-wont-apologize-for-abortion-stance-after-campaign-website-scrubbing/

. . .



^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This seems pretty reasonable to me. 

He needs to hammer Kelly over his statements on Roe. 

Allowing the people of the states to make their own choices is a step backwards ?

Kelly is a puppet.

Didn't you post you were unhappy about Blake changing the content on his campaign website?

[HikerGuy83]

 

Article references NYT and Politico.  Not exactly great sources for objective news.

Despite Turtle's defeatist attitude, I wouldn't write off AZ, GA, and PA just yet.   A lot economic data to hit the news cycles between now and early November.

Well, the NYT is nothing I ever read and accept as gospel. 

But I looked around and the story was being covered pretty thoroughly.

The dispute from what I can read is that the times hinted that this was due to money troubles.

That, from what I can tell, is what the NRSC is disputing.

They pulled the ads from the battleground states to use it other places.

They've also already spent a lot of money. 

The NRSC disputes that they are cutting funding.

They've never said they didn't cut in the states mentioned in the OP.

Of course, some here don't get the difference as it doesn't fit the narrative.

Chris Hartline keeps denying things...but he'll never say they didn't pull adds in the state. 

Of course this is "fake news", as I said, everyone is publishing it.

Then you have Fox reporting that:

FIRST ON FOX – The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Friday is releasing new ads in Wisconsin and Arizona for a total of more than $2.2 million in spending days after other canceled ads led to media stories about alleged fundraising issues.

So they seem to say the ads were canceled. 

I guess they rate with the NYT.