After Russia’s Ukraine invasion, 7 assumptions the US and NATO allies should drop
By MICHAEL W. JOHNSON
on March 18, 2022 at 9:04 AM
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced a hard look at long-held theories about deterrence strategies in Europe. In the op-ed below, RAND researcher Michael W. Johnson explains he says why so many assumptions were wrong and what NATO can do now to update its strategic thinking — as well as its future security.
The ongoing Russian war against Ukraine is a human tragedy on multiple levels. On a devastating personal level, many Ukrainian people have lost their lives, loved ones, homes, jobs, and freedoms because of it. On a geostrategic level, Western leaders by now should have lost many previous assumptions regarding foreign policy and defense strategies related to deterring Russia.
To its credit, NATO deployed a single battalion in each Baltic state as well as Poland as a signal of its commitment two years after Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. Yet, if in February Russia had attacked west into the Baltics on short warning, instead of going south into Ukraine, then NATO would not have been ready to deny Russian objectives and prevent a rapid fait accompli.
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/after-russias-ukraine-invasion-7-assumptions-the-us-and-nato-allies-should-drop/
