Ukraine: Live Updates thread

[Smokin Joe]

I mentioned thousands -- plural.  3,000 were sent to Poland, thousands more are planned to go to neighboring NATO countries.

How many people does it take to maintain and operate those weapons systems? Those are specialties, and it will take a broad spectrum of training classes to teach everything from using the targeting systems, coordination with other units, communications, mechanical systems, repair and troubleshooting, etc. Consider teaching someone who is familiar with 1970s automotive technology (no computers) to repair and operate a current model Cadillac (over 150 processors, with the sensor systems and subroutines needed to operate the vehicle).

Now teach 1000 people the same thing. There are whole concepts that will have to be back filled in the education of those who are going to use and maintain these systems. Unlike the Javelin (fire and forget), the artillery units will have to be maintained in the field.

[libertybele]

Talk about putting words into someone else's mouth.

Good grief.

You're a laugh a minute. Do you actually read AND comprehend or just read??  Perhaps you don't understand sarcasm? 

[Kamaji]

You're a laugh a minuted. Do you actually read AND comprehend or just read??  Perhaps you don't understand sarcasm? 

Oh, I comprehend a lot more than you do.  Pray tell, do quote - not imply, quote - where @Hoodat stated, or even necessarily implied, that Zelenskyy was "perfectly innocent".

And secondly, what the hell is up with your fetishistic obsession with purity and innocence?  Spell it out.  Otherwise, the fact is that none of us is innocent, so your so-far unfounded accusations do no more than make Zelenskyy out to be the same as the rest of us.

[Hoodat]

Gee, I don't know I see the issue at hand as the U.S.A. not getting dragged into fighting a war that isn't ours to fight.

Which is precisely what those on our side are trying to avoid by helping Ukraine to stop Russia now instead of waiting for them to overrun Poland by using Lviv as a launching point.

It's not a matter of Z being a liberal; it's a matter of Z perhaps being involved politically with the U.S; perhaps inflicting damage within his own country and provoking Russia.

Perhaps being involved politically?  Can that statement be weakened any more?  How about coming up with something nefarious that Zelenskiy actually did instead of demonizing him without cause?

Investigating after the fact is sort of like signing a bill before reading the darn thing.

Only if you have zero regard for 'truth'.

[libertybele]

How many people does it take to maintain and operate those weapons systems? Those are specialties, and it will take a broad spectrum of training classes to teach everything from using the targeting systems, coordination with other units, communications, mechanical systems, repair and troubleshooting, etc. Consider teaching someone who is familiar with 1970s automotive technology (no computers) to repair and operate a current model Cadillac (over 150 processors, with the sensor systems and subroutines needed to operate the vehicle).

Now teach 1000 people the same thing. There are whole concepts that will have to be back filled in the education of those who are going to use and maintain these systems. Unlike the Javelin (fire and forget), the artillery units will have to be maintained in the field.

Ok. Thanks for the information.  That doesn't make me feel any better about the 'necessity' of having to send an additional 3,000 troops over to Poland and the plan to send 1,000's more to neighboring NATO countries.

[libertybele]

Only if you have zero regard for 'truth'.

I'm not the one advocating investigating after the facts.

[Hoodat]

Somehow broken treaties on both sides enter into the picture.

How so?  Please explain.

[libertybele]

How so?  Please explain.

If no treaties, or boundaries were compromised, would there be a conflict?

[Hoodat]

The reality, the indisputable fact, is that one country's sovereign borders have been violated, crossed by troops, and their people have been killed, their cities shelled and bombed, their territory occupied.

Claims 'justifying' that aggression are usually just so much bullshit, trying to deflect from the death and destruction wreaked upon those being invaded, and trying to make the aggressor out to be a shining liberator.

Yep.  And it sucks to see it coming from members here.

[Hoodat]

I mentioned thousands -- plural.  3,000 were sent to Poland, thousands more are planned to go to neighboring NATO countries.

That's really beautiful and all.  That's what $13.6 billion bought (which everyone here opposed).  Now again, who are the posters here advocating for US troops in Ukraine?

[Hoodat]

Let's see here ... Zelenskyy is perfectly innocent, Joe & Company have no interest in this mess, and everything will be just wonderful once Putin is destroyed and the U.S. will then be back to its normal self.  Got it.

Perhaps I could interest you in a V-8?

You asked for proof that Russia violated the Minsk accord.  I gave you proof.

[Smokin Joe]

Ok. Thanks for the information.  That doesn't make me feel any better about the 'necessity' of having to send an additional 3,000 troops over to Poland and the plan to send 1,000's more to neighboring NATO countries.

We do have an agreement with the NATO countries. While it is unlikely that they will actually be wrapped up in the fight, bolstering our presence there might be seen as a statement of intent to honor the Treaty, and is more of a deterrent. Besides, those troops could be busy right now training the local troops, taking inventories, checking systems, and prepping for reinforcement arrival if such should prove to be necessary. Making sure things are set up to run as smoothly as possible is a good idea, and insurance against getting caught with our britches down should the need ever arise. The more smoothly the NATO countries can function together, the less likely they will have to do so.

[Hoodat]

I'm not the one advocating investigating after the facts.

What facts?  Those seem to be in extremely short supply in your posts.  Lots of feelings.  But no facts.

[Hoodat]

If no treaties, or boundaries were compromised, would there be a conflict?

Russia is the party violating the boundaries.  Your hypothetical question is pointless.  How about actually answering the question asked instead of replacing it with something your feelings are more comfortable with.

[Mod2]

Let's try to stick to the topic. As noted many times previously, the topic of this thread is not other TBR members.

[Hoodat]

We do have an agreement with the NATO countries. While it is unlikely that they will actually be wrapped up in the fight, bolstering our presence there might be seen as a statement of intent to honor the Treaty, and is more of a deterrent. Besides, those troops could be busy right now training the local troops, taking inventories, checking systems, and prepping for reinforcement arrival if such should prove to be necessary. Making sure things are set up to run as smoothly as possible is a good idea, and insurance against getting caught with our britches down should the need ever arise. The more smoothly the NATO countries can function together, the less likely they will have to do so.

Not to mention that NATO itself has been directly threatened by Putin.

[Hoodat]

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 30

Apr 30, 2022 - Press ISW


Download the PDF

Mason Clark, Karolina Hird, and George Barros

April 30, 5:15pm ET

Further Russian reinforcements to the Izyum axis are unlikely to enable stalled Russian forces to achieve substantial advances.  Elements of unspecified Eastern Military District units and several air-defense assets are reportedly deploying from Belgorod to the Izyum front to support likely degraded Russian units attempting to advance south of the city. These forces are unlikely to enable Russian forces to break the current deadlock, as Russian attacks remain confined to two major highways (toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove) and cannot leverage greater numbers. Several successful Ukrainian counterattacks out of Kharkiv city in the last 72 hours have additionally recaptured a ring of suburbs north and east of the city and may additionally force Russian forces to redeploy units intended for the Izyum axis to hold these positions. Russian forces appear increasingly unlikely to achieve any major advances in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct wider counterattacks in the coming days.

Key Takeaways

• A Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv City will likely alleviate pressure on parts of the city that have suffered the most from Russian shelling and may force Russian troops from Izyum to re-deploy northward to support forces maintaining the partial encirclement of Kharkiv.
  
  
• Additional Russian forces are deploying to the Izyum front but are unlikely to enable any major advances.
  
  
• Russian troops did not make any confirmed advances to the southwest or southeast of Izyum or to the west of the Donetsk-Luhansk frontline.
  
  
• Russian forces in Kherson are pausing major offensive operations to improve their tactical positions and regroup to prepare for a renewed offensive to capture the administrative borders of Kherson.
  
  
• Russian occupation forces in Mariupol announced plans to consolidate their control over the city and intend to return Ukrainian citizens forcibly deported into Russia at some point in the future.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-30

[sneakypete]

Word.

@Hoodat

Ditto!

[Kamaji]

Heroic ‘Ghost of Kyiv’ fighter doesn’t actually exist, Ukraine admits

By Jackie Salo
May 1, 2022

The “Ghost of Kyiv” is a myth, Ukrainian officials admitted over the weekend.

After several news outlets last week identified the legendary, mysterious, hero fighter pilot as a 29-year-old dad recently killed in battle with the Russians, military officials acknowledged Saturday that there was no such person.

“The ghost of Kyiv is a superhero-legend, whose character was created by Ukrainians!” Ukraine’s Air Force Command wrote on Facebook.

The reputed hero had been credited with taking out as many as 40 Russian aircraft until he was shot down March 13 while battling an “overwhelming” number of enemy forces, the Times of London had reported.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2022/05/01/heroic-ghost-of-kyiv-fighter-doesnt-actually-exist-ukraine-admits/

[Kamaji]

Resolution would allow US military to fight if Russia uses nukes, other WMDs

By Mark Moore
May 1, 2022

Rep. Adam Kinzinger on Sunday said he has introduced a resolution to authorize US military force if Russia uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons in Ukraine — calling the scenario a “clear red line.”

Kinzinger (R-Ill.) revealed on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that he introduced the resolution, which, if passed by Congress, would give President Biden the authorization to allow the US to help militarily Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.

“I don’t think we need to be using force in Ukraine right now. I just introduced an AUMF, an authorization for the use of military force, giving the president basically congressional leverage for permission to use it if [weapons of mass destruction] — nuclear, biological or chemical — are used in Ukraine,” Kinzinger told host Margaret Brennan.

The Air Force veteran, who twice served in Iraq, said the authorization would provide Biden leverage while also serving as a deterrent to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The resolution wouldn’t “compel the president to [use military force]. It just says if [WMDs are] used, he has that leverage. It gives him a better flexibility, but also it is a deterrent to Vladimir Putin,” the congressman said.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2022/05/01/us-military-would-be-allowed-to-fight-if-russia-uses-nukes-other-wmds-resolution/

[sneakypete]

How many people does it take to maintain and operate those weapons systems? 

@Smokin Joe

I know very little about modern,or even 1960's artillery pieces. What I DO know is that the typical high school graduate of today is a lot less educated than the typical high school graduate of the 60's.

I also know that the one thing high school kids all over the world can do now is play video games,and I SUSPECT they will have very little trouble operating the modern field piece because it is a hell of lot easier to "dial in" a target in the digital world of today than in the "operate the elevation crank and look up the chart to see how many powder bags we have to throw in to hit a target in "x grid". I would be shocked if the modern arty grunts have to do much more than punch in the grid codes,and the arty computer will tell them how many power bags to use and what degree of elevation. Hell,I doubt they even have to crank in any elevation these days. The computer probably does it for them.

It's kind of like driving a car with an automatic transmission when all you have driven are standard transmission cars. It will take some getting used to and a little instruction,but it ain't rocket science.

Now,I have no doubt the commissioned cannon cockers are MUCH more educated on the systems than the "field hands" are that actually shoot the guns,but it can't be all that complicated to just operate the damn things.  Especially not compared to the old "pre-computer" days.

Maybe some modern day "Red Leg" can step into this conversation and set us all straight with actual knowledge?

[Hoodat]

Rep. Adam Kinzinger on Sunday said he has introduced a resolution to authorize US military force if Russia uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons in Ukraine — calling the scenario a “clear red line.”

Adam Kinzinger is an idiot.  Perhaps he needs a refresher on the Constitution.

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe

I know very little about modern,or even 1960's artillery pieces. What I DO know is that the typical high school graduate of today is a lot less educated than the typical high school graduate of the 60's.

I also know that the one thing high school kids all over the world can do now is play video games,and I SUSPECT they will have very little trouble operating the modern field piece because it is a hell of lot easier to "dial in" a target in the digital world of today than in the "operate the elevation crank and look up the chart to see how many powder bags we have to throw in to hit a target in "x grid". I would be shocked if the modern arty grunts have to do much more than punch in the grid codes,and the arty computer will tell them how many power bags to use and what degree of elevation. Hell,I doubt they even have to crank in any elevation these days. The computer probably does it for them.

It's kind of like driving a car with an automatic transmission when all you have driven are standard transmission cars. It will take some getting used to and a little instruction,but it ain't rocket science.

Now,I have no doubt the commissioned cannon cockers are MUCH more educated on the systems than the "field hands" are that actually shoot the guns,but it can't be all that complicated to just operate the damn things.  Especially not compared to the old "pre-computer" days.

Maybe some modern day "Red Leg" can step into this conversation and set us all straight with actual knowledge?

I get that, but maintaining those systems when the video game doesn't work is as different from looking under the hood of that 1970 Camaro and looking under the hood of the latest version.

Keeping all the 'gee whiz' working is the hardest part. In lieu of that, being able to work out some ballistics on a piece of ration box might come in handy...

[sneakypete]

Adam Kinzinger is an idiot.  Perhaps he needs a refresher on the Constitution.

@Hoodat

Not to mention bitch-slapped in public until he wets his pants for even trying to get such a thing accepted as a part of the conversation.

[Hoodat]

May 1 - per MFA of Ukraine