Investment Tips Thread

[catfish1957]

CD rates are still less than inflation.  It's still a net money loser after inflation and taxes.

True, my point was  only used it as an example.  If you have other safe investment vehicles that yield more, that's great....  That's even more of yield differential versus your 2.5% mortgage.

[Free Vulcan]

I saw (see) it as a decent dip, and increased Au ownership.  What is really strange about the fin news the past week, is it seems only the $USD is doing well, even to the point of sapping strength from the commodities market  Even stranger are the dupes out there who think a Sovereign country that is $31T in debt, and has 129% Debt to GDP ratio, is a flight to financial safety.  It's like Bizarro World.

These still good go lower, but they are bucking the technicals of what I feel are in place, even at a 3 year inflation adjusted low.

The US is like the smartest kid on the short bus right now. I wonder how long it will last if our economy deteriorates further.

I expect metals to explode at some point, and could see that expanding to land and other real goods investments.

[catfish1957]

The US is like the smartest kid on the short bus right now. I wonder how long it will last if our economy deteriorates further.

I expect metals to explode at some point, and could see that expanding to land and other real goods investments.

Good observations.  Everybody's $10000 question is how this thing unravels. If we see commodites start rocketing up, I am betting we are on the hyperinflation express.

[Free Vulcan]

Good observations.  Everybody's $10000 question is how this thing unravels. If we see commodites start rocketing up, I am betting we are on the hyperinflation express.

The thing that really keeps coming up for me @catfish1957 is that economically we are in no mans land. The world economy has never been in this position before, and I couldn't possibly tell anyone how it might all go forward from here.

For example, while we have steep price increases in gas and food, the dollar has risen so much that import prices have dropped on many things, substantially in some cases. I think you'll see alot more of those kind of crosscurrents in the days ahead.

I think we all might end up getting whipsawed by it all.

[catfish1957]

The thing that really keeps coming up for me @catfish1957 is that economically we are in no mans land. The world economy has never been in this position before, and I couldn't possibly tell anyone how it might all go forward from here.

For example, while we have steep price increases in gas and food, the dollar has risen so much that import prices have dropped on many things, substantially in some cases. I think you'll see alot more of those kind of crosscurrents in the days ahead.

I think we all might end up getting whipsawed by it all.

For close to 30 years our government has become complicitly criminal in their fiscal responsibilty to this country.  You can only kick the can down the road so many times until the can or the sneakers disinergrate.

They have proverbially painted themselves in a corner.  When interest rates start rising, the U.S.Bills and Bonds  as investment tool will be so leveraged that the so called to flight to safety will actually become the opposite.  When public, private, and foreign government demand in U.S paper evaporates, the house of cards will start tumbling. 

The actual triggering date may be about the time world economies stop using $USD as reference currency.

The end result will be exceedingly ugly. I am talking 3rd world ugly.

[catfish1957]

Update on the precious metals dip.....

12 Jul 2022 10:10 cdt

Gold- $1728/oz.
Silver- $18.86/oz.
Platinum- $854/oz.

Lowest prices in 18 months. Taking account inflation, maybe the best price in nearly 3 years.

Shit!!!!  Anyone else watching this?

14 Jul 2022 9:03 a.m. cat

Gold- $1699.30/oz
Silver- $18.13/oz
Platinum- $817.10/oz

This defies the fundementals......    And not what to expect in an inflationary economy.

Plus a economic, politcal storm brewing for the EU, thanks to Italy.  Hang on to your hats.  $USD now actually worth more than a EURO.

[Free Vulcan]

Shit!!!!  Anyone else watching this?

14 Jul 2022 9:03 a.m. cat

Gold- $1699.30/oz
Silver- $18.13/oz
Platinum- $817.10/oz

This defies the fundementals......    And not what to expect in an inflationary economy.

Plus a economic, politcal storm brewing for the EU, thanks to Italy.  Hang on to your hats.  $USD now actually worth more than a EURO.

Very weird, in a series of economically weird things.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I see they spruced it up to 1.75% lately, with MM being 0.9%.

At this rate, we will be back to Jimmy Carter days by year end.

Just raised again to 2.25%

[IsailedawayfromFR]

CD rates are still less than inflation.  It's still a net money loser after inflation and taxes.

yes it is and is a terrible investment.
 But holding some cash is wisdom in this volatile environment and bonds and stocks can be even bigger losers.

At time capital preservation can be more important than returns.

[catfish1957]

yes it is and is a terrible investment.
 But holding some cash is wisdom in this volatile environment and bonds and stocks can be even bigger losers.

At time capital preservation can be more important than returns.

Agree...

Almost 5 years ago, I scored some Jumbos yielding 3.75%  Good investment at the time, while inflation was at 1-2%, and being able to park some capital into the safety, and decent level of liquidity.    There is kind of an art and strategy, in getting the best in class rates....  (1) $ volume (2) go for long length (3) Take Jumbo option (4) Negotiate the heck out it, even if you have to move the money.  These guys didn't want that.

But right now CD's and their interest rate/inflation spread is the worst I have ever seen it in my entire life.  These poor banks and Credit Unions are about to get squeezed, and that may be one of the biggest financial news events in the near future.

Right now for me, Gold is looking really good at $1700/oz.

[DefiantMassRINO]

2008 was a real eye opener for me.

I had never seen Money Market Funds "break the buck" prior.  I was not aware that Money Market Funds could loose principal.

The bank withdrew our Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) even though we had over 40% equity in our home.  We had to take out a home equity loan @8%, which we quickly repaid.

The time I need cash the most may be the same time that is least available.  I started hoarding cash.  Some investment professionals would say this was a less than optimal deployment of my capital.  My main motivation was to be able to sleep at night knowing I could pay my bills and keep my home if the fit hit the shan again.

Now, I have too much cash.  Now I am incrementally deploying my cash to pay down my mortgage, dollar cost acquire stocks, and contribute to my employer 401-K and my Roll-Over IRA from a previous employer.

My investing guiding principles are to only risk money I can afford to lose (learned this gambling at the dog track) and to be able to sleep at night knowing I'll have access to cash should I need it.

At certain points in life, preservation of capital is more important than return on capital.  The credit market seizing in 2008 was one such time.

Cash is a (psychological and financial) hedge against uncertainty.

[catfish1957]

Cash is a (psychological and financial) hedge against uncertainty.

I have no faith in the $USD right now.  That is why my recent tendencies for flight to safety has been towards precious metals.

[catfish1957]

Not exactly an investment tip, but for those of us that watch the markets, is anyone else noticing the bump in stock indicies and at least some stabilzation of interest rates.  Commodites too, have not only not spiked, but are seeming to ease.

Wall Street and its sentiment is by far the best barometer of how elections are going.  Not wanting to get everyone's hopes too far up, but I think a GOP takeover of the house and senate is now baked into market performance and sentiment.

This pretty much cooks Pedo Joe's agenda the next few years, unless our resident RINOs. betray us.

[Bigun]

Not exactly an investment tip, but for those of us that watch the markets, is anyone else noticing the bump in stock indicies and at least some stabilzation of interest rates.  Commodites too, have not only not spiked, but are seeming to ease.

Wall Street and its sentiment is by far the best barometer of how elections are going.  Not wanting to get everyone's hopes too far up, but I think a GOP takeover of the house and senate is now baked into market performance and sentiment.

This pretty much cooks Pedo Joe's agenda the next few years, unless until our resident RINOs. betray us.

Fixed it!

[DefiantMassRINO]

In the short term, a Dem victory would be a windfall for energy companies - they'd be able to further maximize profits on existing long-term capital investments.

I like to keep an eye on energy pipeline companies and refiners.  Biden won't allow new ones to come online, so, the existing ones will only increase in value as the government-created energy supply deficit continues.

I also recently bought some silver coins (2021 Royal British Mint 2oz Silver Bullion Queen's Beasts Completer 5lb coin) for neumistic reasons more than melt value:



I was just enthralled with the quality and level of artisanship in the design.

[catfish1957]

Friendly reminder, that this is the week to kick the tires on the portfolio, and make moves that will impact your taxes, (be it distirbutions, capital gains, etc.) and investment direction for '23.

I am still in Bear expectation mode.  Not wanting to appear to be crying "Wolf", but the matter of correction is not a matter of if, but of when.

[catfish1957]

Not a recommendation, as everyone should understand the risk, but there are a some hardware/chip stocks out there that have been so beaten down in the overall trashed tech sector, that the are yielding almost 5% in divys alone.  Check 'em out if you have some discrectionary play in your portfolio.

 

[catfish1957]

In the short term, a Dem victory would be a windfall for energy companies - they'd be able to further maximize profits on existing long-term capital investments.

I like to keep an eye on energy pipeline companies and refiners.  Biden won't allow new ones to come online, so, the existing ones will only increase in value as the government-created energy supply deficit continues.

I also recently bought some silver coins (2021 Royal British Mint 2oz Silver Bullion Queen's Beasts Completer 5lb coin) for neumistic reasons more than melt value:



I was just enthralled with the quality and level of artisanship in the design.

Nice dip in Silver right now....  $20.35/ oz

[mountaineer]

The latest from the company with which Mr. M and I have some investments:

Midyear outlook: Expect a bumpy ride before sailing gets smoother

... While it may be tempting for investors to let down their guard during the inevitable bear market rally, we continue to believe now is the time for investors to prepare for it by keeping their seatbelts fastened. By that, I mean we’re maintaining our guidance to remain defensive in portfolio positioning.

For help with determining what you may want to do with your portfolio to get ready for the coming months, I recommend reading our Midyear Outlook. It offers detailed guidance with a focus on the following four asset types.

Equities. Our view is that corporate revenue growth will stall in the remainder of 2023 as the economy likely falls into a moderate recession. Throw in fixed costs that take time for companies to reduce at a time of declining sales as well as stubborn input and wage costs, and we expect operating margins to continue declining toward pre-COVID-19 levels. We see these factors weighing on earnings in 2023 and early 2024, and our S&P 500 Index target ranges reflect that: 4,000 – 4,200 for year-end 2023 and 4,600 – 4,800 for year-end 2024.

We continue to prefer quality stocks and defensive sectors, and favor U.S. large-cap equities over mid- and small-caps. Playing defense at the sector level includes a preference for the Materials, Health Care, and Energy sectors.

Once the recession appears fully priced in to market valuations, we expect an opportunity to position for a 2024 recovery. Our 2024 targets anticipate that U.S. small-cap equities will outpace U.S. mid-cap equities, which in turn will outgain U.S. large-cap equities.

Fixed income. We believe the next 6 to 18 months will present fixed income with two distinct environments: recession and recovery. Against this backdrop, we favor a barbell strategy that emphasizes short term and long term. We envision positive returns for both taxable and municipal bonds through year-end.

Headwinds are rising in credit markets, and we prefer to focus on bond quality. We favor government securities, particularly U.S. Treasuries, and we believe that investment-grade corporates should retain strength. In contrast, we find high-yield securities to be currently overpriced and suggest caution given that spreads are set to widen further.

Real assets. We believe 2023 may see a short-term price pause before the resumption of a long-term commodity bull super-cycle (a multiyear period in which commodity prices climb together as a family). Even under the pressure of a global economic slowdown, we foresee modest upside for prices from current levels and stronger performance in 2024.

Our outlook for a weaker U.S. dollar should support gold and precious metals prices. We believe the bull super-cycle is very likely to produce performance across all sectors.  ...

Wells Fargo Advisors

[catfish1957]

Just an editioral point on my behalf........

The Big 7 of Tech Stocks in the  S & P 500 make up 27% of the Market Cap of The S & P 500

Where's the antitrust zeal we've seen the past 90 or so years?  That's how entrenched the socialist dims have put a stranglehold on us by enabling an  industry that has put them in power into perpetuity.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Investing is no different than any other form of gambling ... only play with money you can afford to lose.  Any investment could go to $0 at any time.

This is a time when oversized entrenched monopolies, duopolies, and oligopolies have competitive advantage because of their sizes, capitalization, and access to credit.

[catfish1957]

Investing is no different than any other form of gambling ... only play with money you can afford to lose.  Any investment could go to $0 at any time.

This is a time when oversized entrenched monopolies, duopolies, and oligopolies have competitive advantage because of their sizes, capitalization, and access to credit.

And the FTC with their complicit dim masters seem to be giving Big Tech a pass.....

But watch the gnashing of teeth, when the same clowns start parsing the Exxon-Pioneer and Chevron-Hess acquistions.  Again, these 4 in combo don't exceed $1T in market cap.

My point is that the FTC is highly suspect in their application of scope, and it's bias iis deeply entrenched in furthering left wing causes.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Agree...

Almost 5 years ago, I scored some Jumbos yielding 3.75%  Good investment at the time, while inflation was at 1-2%, and being able to park some capital into the safety, and decent level of liquidity.    There is kind of an art and strategy, in getting the best in class rates....  (1) $ volume (2) go for long length (3) Take Jumbo option (4) Negotiate the heck out it, even if you have to move the money.  These guys didn't want that.

But right now CD's and their interest rate/inflation spread is the worst I have ever seen it in my entire life.  These poor banks and Credit Unions are about to get squeezed, and that may be one of the biggest financial news events in the near future.

Right now for me, Gold is looking really good at $1700/oz.

going back to your old post, the missus and I have been buying I bonds for past several years in order to have safe and significant portion of portfolio built up.

Was fairly robust returns which cooled off lately. This is our ultimate fall back retirement portion if all goes to hell.

What do you think of this, as well as your remark about how good gold looked at $1700/oz?
@catfish1957

[catfish1957]

going back to your old post, the missus and I have been buying I bonds for past several years in order to have safe and significant portion of portfolio built up.

Was fairly robust returns which cooled off lately. This is our ultimate fall back retirement portion if all goes to hell.

What do you think of this, as well as your remark about how good gold looked at $1700/oz?
@catfish1957

Talk about gold looking at $1700.  I stocked up, until it hit $2200.  Wrongly, I thought that would be at or near the ceiling.  $3K/oz. is insane, and this is more of function how worth our dollars are becoming diluted. Gold right now...no thanks.  Afraid that inflation is becoming entrenched, and even with all the good stuff Trump/Musk is doing, there are still some strong continued inflation pressures for at least a year (and again IMO). 

If you do happen want to add to your gold position PM me.  I have an auction house I use  that has zero % commission, and has free shipping.  Typically when I do win  lots, it is usually 5-10% above spot.  Has  num gold, modern, and bar.  Silver looks like a better value, but it takes up too much damned space.

If you have a decent capital base, consolidate and negotiate.  We were able to play hard ball with one Credit Union and got 5.2% on a CD recently.  5YR.  And the Fed?  Flip a coin.  My guess a year from now on the long bond?  No more than 50 bp + or - where it is now.
But as far as equities, and I know I sound like a broken record....   This market has now for 6 years been seriously oversold.   Until we get a decent correction, I am staying on the sideline, unless I see something that has some potential. 

Wife is bugging me to get some more farmland.  Returns.....  Crops and capital gain have been awesome.  My biggest fear is if you lose a good tenant/contract farmer, those numbers can go to sh__ pretty quick

@IsailedawayfromFR

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Talk about gold looking at $1700.  I stocked up, until it hit $2200.  Wrongly, I thought that would be at or near the ceiling.  $3K/oz. is insane, and this is more of function how worth our dollars are becoming diluted. Gold right now...no thanks.  Afraid that inflation is becoming entrenched, and even with all the good stuff Trump/Musk is doing, there are still some strong continued inflation pressures for at least a year (and again IMO). 

If you do happen want to add to your gold position PM me.  I have an auction house I use  that has zero % commission, and has free shipping.  Typically when I do win  lots, it is usually 5-10% above spot.  Has  num gold, modern, and bar.  Silver looks like a better value, but it takes up too much damned space.

If you have a decent capital base, consolidate and negotiate.  We were able to play hard ball with one Credit Union and got 5.2% on a CD recently.  5YR.  And the Fed?  Flip a coin.  My guess a year from now on the long bond?  No more than 50 bp + or - where it is now.
But as far as equities, and I know I sound like a broken record....   This market has now for 6 years been seriously oversold.   Until we get a decent correction, I am staying on the sideline, unless I see something that has some potential. 

Wife is bugging me to get some more farmland.  Returns.....  Crops and capital gain have been awesome.  My biggest fear is if you lose a good tenant/contract farmer, those numbers can go to sh__ pretty quick

@IsailedawayfromFR

And I bonds?  I do not plan on getting into physical assets like gold as I already am deluged in physical assets by owning oil stocks that have physical assets backing them up.

I have plenty of real estate and have seen it more than triple in value since I retired 10 years ago.

Key is to have a low holding cost, so it must be farmland as taxes are 1/10 that of non-ag.  I care not for losing a reliable tenant as there are others out there who will rent.

It will not go down in value.  And what is happening around East Texas, a low-cost place to own land, is that farms are being purchased for astronomical prices by investment houses and then carved up into 5-20 acre parcels for individuals who wish to get out of the big metroplexes of Dallas/Houston and own some countryside place of their own.

That is a big trend as people are planning their retirement outside the cities.

@catfish1957