Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050
Posted on May 19, 2021 by curryja | 2 Comments
by Judith Curry
Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy.
The International Energy Agency has just published a document ‘NetZero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.‘ This document provides a comprehensive assessment of the challenges of reaching NetZero carbon emissions by 2050, along with clear milestones for meeting this challenge.
The IEA report describes their analysis of the trajectory that our emissions is currently on. Policies that have actually been implemented (STEPS) versus the trajectory that would be achieved if all countries met their current commitments (APC) are shown in the diagram below. The implication of the IEA STEP scenario is that if policies that have already been implemented are maintained, the global carbon dioxide emissions three decades from now will be similar to what they are today.
https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/19/projecting-manmade-climate-change-scenarios-to-2050/#more-27556