Electric vehicles cheaper than combustion by 2027, study predicts

[HoustonSam]

Electric vehicle generates much less waste heat.  So much less that while a heater in a tradition car uses the waste heat for the inside cabin, the electric must turn on electric heaters and pull away more energy from the batteries.

Having no experience with electric vehicles I did not know this fact; it lends some credence to the hypothesis that the at-point-of-use consumption of energy in transportation would be reduced if transportation were all by electric vehicles rather than ICE or diesel vehicles.  But I still wonder how those numbers would add up against the conversion losses in generating all that electricity.

[catfish1957]

I'll never buy an EV.  This old fashioned curmdugeon will have to have the steering wheell of his V8 truck pryed from his cold dead hands.

[thackney]

Having no experience with electric vehicles I did not know this fact; it lends some credence to the hypothesis that the at-point-of-use consumption of energy in transportation would be reduced if transportation were all by electric vehicles rather than ICE or diesel vehicles.  But I still wonder how those numbers would add up against the conversion losses in generating all that electricity.

EVs convert over 77% of the electrical energy from the grid to power at the wheels. Conventional gasoline vehicles only convert about 12%–30% of the energy stored in gasoline to power at the wheels.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml

But take the 77% and multiple by the ratio of (energy out divided by the energy in of the electrical power system) and we get

77% x  (12.97 / 36.47) = 77% x 35.6% = 27.4%

Not surprising they have comparable efficiencies.

[Idiot]

You should see some of the horror stories I've seen regarding Tesla's solar roof. They give an estimate and a time frame, then come back and push the time frame back and at the same time jack up the price. Imagine if you were deciding between the Tesla product and more traditional solar panels, and you passed on some deal on the solar panels to wait for Tesla, and then they pull this crap.

Here's an article that discusses their bait-and-switch.

Not to mention having a hail storm and having to have your shingles replaced.  The solar must all come down and reinstalled...that can't be cheap.

[BassWrangler]

I just realized they'll be cheaper by 2027 because with the Democraps in charge, gas will be $20/gallon.

[Joe Wooten]

I just realized they'll be cheaper by 2027 because with the Democraps in charge, gas will be $20/gallon.

When gasoline is $20/gal, solar panels will go up by a comparable amount because you will still need fossil fuels to make and install them. There is no free lunch

[HoustonSam]

EVs convert over 77% of the electrical energy from the grid to power at the wheels. Conventional gasoline vehicles only convert about 12%–30% of the energy stored in gasoline to power at the wheels.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml

But take the 77% and multiple by the ratio of (energy out divided by the energy in of the electrical power system) and we get

77% x  (12.97 / 36.47) = 77% x 35.6% = 27.4%

Not surprising they have comparable efficiencies.

Many thanks for your continued insight @thackney; this is the overall comparison I was looking for.  So it seems the relative merits of gasoline powered transportation versus electric powered transportation are *not* in the overall consumption of energy, but in the user's perception of performance, in the incremental infrastructure investment needed, and in the costs of materials for manufacturing the different technologies.

[Smokin Joe]

Electric vehicle generates much less waste heat.  So much less that while a heater in a tradition car uses the waste heat for the inside cabin, the electric must turn on electric heaters and pull away more energy from the batteries.

...Which is the bugaboo at this latitude. "Fighting global warming" (AKA "climate change") is a double whammy, because, if effective, we'd be back to the months of zero for a high temperature and the batteries would have to work overtime to keep the cabin temperature survivable. As it is, with approximately 130 miles between major towns, just getting there (without any loiter time for impassable road conditions or mishaps), would be questionable, and a round trip would be out of the question with current tech.

I suppose it would spell the end of mass events, because the need for charging capacity at or near the venue would put a lot of load on a localized system.

[thackney]

Many thanks for your continued insight @thackney; this is the overall comparison I was looking for.  So it seems the relative merits of gasoline powered transportation versus electric powered transportation are *not* in the overall consumption of energy, but in the user's perception of performance, in the incremental infrastructure investment needed, and in the costs of materials for manufacturing the different technologies.

[BassWrangler]

When gasoline is $20/gal, solar panels will go up by a comparable amount because you will still need fossil fuels to make and install them. There is no free lunch

Not if they're made in China 

[BassWrangler]

Electric vehicle generates much less waste heat.  So much less that while a heater in a tradition car uses the waste heat for the inside cabin, the electric must turn on electric heaters and pull away more energy from the batteries.

Actually, the newer ones use heat pumps. My Tesla is before that change, and the heater is a big range reducer. On The newer ones with the heat pump, that's much less if an issue.

[thackney]

Actually, the newer ones use heat pumps. My Tesla is before that change, and the heater is a big range reducer. On The newer ones with the heat pump, that's much less if an issue.

Thanks for that update.  I understand heat pumps work well when there is not a drastic difference in temperature.  I wonder if they also have resistive type heaters for temperature extremes; my parents home in Ohio does that when the heat pump won't keep up.

[Smokin Joe]

Thanks for that update.  I understand heat pumps work well when there is not a drastic difference in temperature.  I wonder if they also have resistive type heaters for temperature extremes; my parents home in Ohio does that when the heat pump won't keep up.

When they take these to Antarctica or the North Pole and survive extensive travel with them, maybe I will consider one for home use in North Dakota.

[GtHawk]

Many thanks for your continued insight @thackney; this is the overall comparison I was looking for.  So it seems the relative merits of gasoline powered transportation versus electric powered transportation are *not* in the overall consumption of energy, but in the user's perception of performance, in the incremental infrastructure investment needed, and in the costs of materials for manufacturing the different technologies.

Don't forget another important variable, convenience. With a gas powered vehicle you don't have to schedule lengthy recharging stops on a long trip. Last year I drove over 900 miles straight through with just minutes needed for refueling, let me know when I can do that in an EV.

[DB]

Don't forget another important variable, convenience. With a gas powered vehicle you don't have to schedule lengthy recharging stops on a long trip. Last year I drove over 900 miles straight through with just minutes needed for refueling, let me know when I can do that in an EV.

Well... You "can" do it with EVs too... Just like the pony express did it with horses...

[Smokin Joe]

Well... You "can" do it with EVs too... Just like the pony express did it with horses...

What a great leap forward. 

[roamer_1]

When they take these to Antarctica or the North Pole and survive extensive travel with them, maybe I will consider one for home use in North Dakota.

I heard that.

[thackney]

Don't forget another important variable, convenience. With a gas powered vehicle you don't have to schedule lengthy recharging stops on a long trip. Last year I drove over 900 miles straight through with just minutes needed for refueling, let me know when I can do that in an EV.

I am still surprised that there is not an effort to have a small generator/trailer available to rent that would charge the car for long driving events like a vacation trip.  Something you may only want once a year.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Actually bigger problem is that it takes all night to charge one of these things.

[thackney]

Actually bigger problem is that it takes all night to charge one of these things.

Bigger yet is all night to find out it did NOT charge.

[catfish1957]

Bigger yet is all night to find out it did NOT charge.

As all owners of cell phones, we know that'll never happen right?   

[thackney]

As all owners of cell phones, we know that'll never happen right?   

And in the coming future, it does charge overnight, then the utility decides it needs that power back more than you do.

Could Car Batteries Back up Our Electrical Grid?
https://www.designnews.com/could-car-batteries-back-our-electrical-grid-0

[Hoodat]

Actually bigger problem is that it takes all night to charge one of these things.

Do you prefer one that charges in 5 min?  Consider how much power that will take and how much energy passes through that connection in just 5 minutes time.  I wouldn't want to be standing anywhere near that.

Think cellphone lithium battery fire - times ten million.

[BassWrangler]

Actually bigger problem is that it takes all night to charge one of these things.

well that's not true. When I get home from work, I plug in my Tesla, and it’s typically charged in 50 minutes. Now my workplace is only 30 minutes from my house, but the way the charging works, it's slower as you get closer to fully charged.

 If I am on a road trip, I charge at a SuperCharger, and depending on how much charge I need to get to the next one, it will be somewhere between 10 minutes and 30 minutes to charge. I typically go get a coffee or something to eat.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Do you prefer one that charges in 5 min?  Consider how much power that will take and how much energy passes through that connection in just 5 minutes time.  I wouldn't want to be standing anywhere near that.

Think cellphone lithium battery fire - times ten million.

Yeah, and gasoline is perfectly safe and nothing bad ever happens from it. There are some kinks to be certain in electric vehicles, but they'll grow in acceptance and the kinks will be worked out over time.