1. Needing to gather a lot more signatures than required has been normal for at least since the early 80. This is because signature validity is checked, and many are ineligible or are attempts to sabotage ballot initiative efforts with phony signatures.
2. This petition determines whether a recall election will take place, nothing more.
3. In a recall election voters will decide two things. The first is whether Newsom is recalled. The second - which only matters if Newsom is recalled - is who would replace Newsom (Newsom could not be one of the candidates).
4. If there will be a recall election I don't have a feel for whether Newsom would be booted out. Sadly, if he is: 1.) a Dem-to-be-named-later would probably replace him; 2.) if a good conservative R is a candidate, "Moderate" Rs will make sure the R vote is split by getting a RINO on the ballot (like they did with Ahhhnold the RINO)); "Moderate" Rs have proven they loath and hate conservative Rs more than Dems time after time after ... . I'd love to be proven wrong on that point.