'Hard to explain': Scientists struggle to figure out plunging COVID cases

[mystery-ak]

'Hard to explain': Scientists struggle to figure out plunging COVID cases

Feared post-holiday surge never materialized; positive tests have dropped roughly to October levels.



By Daniel Payne

Updated: March 2, 2021 - 10:20pm


Scientists are struggling to explain the major, ongoing drop in Covid cases nationwide, with experts pointing to a variety of explanations including possible herd immunity, compliance with mitigation orders and rising vaccination rates as possible causes.

Positive Covid tests skyrocketed throughout the fall and winter, with positive tests reaching a high of just under 300,000 one day in early January.

Following that peak, cases tumbled downward in what was effectively an unbroken decline in positive test results for two months. Daily cases late last week reached levels not seen since October. The decline appears to have leveled off, but rates remain significantly lower than at the beginning of January.

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[PeteS in CA]

This being March 2nd, not February 2nd, I'd say that the causes include:

* Ever-increasing numbers of people who have recovered and thus have "natural" immunity;

* Ever-increasing numbers of people who have been vaccinated (on February 2nd this population was much less significant);

* People adjusting their habits ... maybe.

Herd immunity is not like a switch, it's a trend. Between recovered people an those vaccinated, we are steadily approaching the point where the population of the susceptible is small and sparse enough that Covid will become rare. Herd immunity will also mean that new variants will become fewer as the hosts necessary for variant-producing mutations become fewer.

[mountaineer]

Yeah, that's tough. The various flu viruses never live forever. Who knew?

[Right_in_Virginia]

Two words:  Herd immunity.