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Author Topic: Arizona LD 26 Blowout  (Read 6135 times)

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Offline HikerGuy83

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Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« on: November 08, 2020, 11:55:53 pm »
The house I purchased in the Mesa area is a smaller house in an older section of town.  I have not paid much attention to legislative district until recently. 

It is in LD 26. 

On November 3rd 2020, the two democrats got roughly 36,000 votes each.  The two republicans got approximately 16,000 votes each.  That is a little over 30% of the vote. 

In the senate, the democratic nominee slaughtered his GOP opponent by about the same percentage. 

In neighboring LD 25, the GOP senator won with 58% of the vote.  The two GOP members of the house won against one democrat by about the same margin.

What's with LD 26 ?

I was incredulous.

So I did some digging.

LD 12 to the east of 25.....is GOP heavy.  I don't think the democrats ran anyone for the house.  The same for LD 16. 

In LD 24, the GOP was creamed.  In LD 10, the GOP didn't bother.

I am going to go back and look at vote talleys.

This was interesting.



« Last Edit: November 09, 2020, 12:40:37 am by HikerGuy83 »
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2020, 02:29:44 am »
I see the problem.  Here's the map of LD 26:



Tempe is ASU, a College Town.  The really large part in the Northeast is the Fort McDowell Indian Res (leftist).  Most of the part that's Mesa is the "Latino" area, the oldest part of town.  Bottom line:  Not Happy Hunting Grounds for Republicans.  There is a "nice" part of Mesa in the district, I hope that's where you live.

LD 25 is all dense tract development with homes around $500K.  A lot of people who can afford (and tolerate) houses like that, heavy advantage GOP.

LD 12 is a lot like 25 in demographics for the most part in that part of Gilbert, Queen Creek (part of QC is in Pinal County) is still mostly farmland, but there's a lot of new growth there.  Call QC a mixture of farmers and a bedroom community. 

LD 16 surprises me a bit if it's heavy GOP, that's Apache Junction, again not part of Maricopa County.  There are a lot of snowbird retirees living in mobile homes, so it's only a small surprise.

I don't know where 10 or 24 are.  My old district is LD 17.  They went for Hillary in 2016, part of why I was happy to vacate the premises when I did.  Looks like Mesnard, the Republican got Senator, but we split the Representatives with the Rats.
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Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2020, 07:05:27 pm »
I would be upset if the GOP has basically ceded these districts.

I will start checking on committee precinct people.

Do you know where to find the listing for the precincts (and where to find a precinct map) ?
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2020, 07:12:08 pm »
Quote from: HikerGuy83 on November 09, 2020, 07:05:27 pm
I would be upset if the GOP has basically ceded these districts.

I will start checking on committee precinct people.

Do you know where to find the listing for the precincts (and where to find a precinct map) ?

Probably on the GOP website for the Peoples Republic of Maricopa.  It may take a phone call.  As a citizen you are entitles to know who the PCs are.  When you established residency you can get yourself appointed as a PC.  Easy peasy, just contact the Chair of your LD's (that's easy to find out) and he'll appoint you.  There are always vacancies.
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For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
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Offline The_Reader_David

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2020, 07:12:31 pm »
You have heard of gerrymandering -- the ideal of which is to create a (very) few absurdly safe districts for the other party, and lots of merely safe districts for one's own party.  With modern computing power and precinct level data this can usually be done without creating absurdly shaped districts like the eponymous salamander-shaped district of yore.
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2020, 07:21:33 pm »
Quote from: The_Reader_David on November 09, 2020, 07:12:31 pm
You have heard of gerrymandering -- the ideal of which is to create a (very) few absurdly safe districts for the other party, and lots of merely safe districts for one's own party.  With modern computing power and precinct level data this can usually be done without creating absurdly shaped districts like the eponymous salamander-shaped district of yore.

Impossible!  AZ has an "independent" redistricting commission! 

:mauslaff:
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For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2020, 10:19:20 pm »
Have not had a lot of time to look further into this. 

I am going to try and figure out how many precincts are in this LD.
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2020, 10:41:14 pm »
Quote from: HikerGuy83 on November 13, 2020, 10:19:20 pm
Have not had a lot of time to look further into this. 

I am going to try and figure out how many precincts are in this LD.

Good question.  Dozens, at least.  My old Precinct in Chandler was 1/2 of a 1 square mile block.
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For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2020, 10:51:34 pm »
While looking around I found this: https://azld26.com/

I went in through the "Contact Us" section and await their response. 

I don't want to embarrass them by asking how the GOP gets killed in LD26.
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Offline DB

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2020, 11:32:56 pm »
Quote from: HikerGuy83 on November 08, 2020, 11:55:53 pm
The house I purchased in the Mesa area is a smaller house in an older section of town.  I have not paid much attention to legislative district until recently. 

It is in LD 26. 

On November 3rd 2020, the two democrats got roughly 36,000 votes each.  The two republicans got approximately 16,000 votes each.  That is a little over 30% of the vote. 

In the senate, the democratic nominee slaughtered his GOP opponent by about the same percentage. 

In neighboring LD 25, the GOP senator won with 58% of the vote.  The two GOP members of the house won against one democrat by about the same margin.

What's with LD 26 ?

I was incredulous.

So I did some digging.

LD 12 to the east of 25.....is GOP heavy.  I don't think the democrats ran anyone for the house.  The same for LD 16. 

In LD 24, the GOP was creamed.  In LD 10, the GOP didn't bother.

I am going to go back and look at vote talleys.

This was interesting.

I live in LD 25 and congressional district 5.
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Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2020, 07:18:38 pm »
Quote from: DB on November 25, 2020, 11:32:56 pm
I live in LD 25 and congressional district 5.

Do you participate in the Mesa LD25 group ?
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Offline DB

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2020, 09:01:14 pm »
Quote from: HikerGuy83 on November 27, 2020, 07:18:38 pm
Do you participate in the Mesa LD25 group ?

No. I've only been here a little over two years.
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Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2020, 06:48:02 am »
It appears to be a pretty active group (all things considered).

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Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2020, 07:47:11 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on November 09, 2020, 07:12:08 pm
Probably on the GOP website for the Peoples Republic of Maricopa.  It may take a phone call.  As a citizen you are entitles to know who the PCs are.  When you established residency you can get yourself appointed as a PC.  Easy peasy, just contact the Chair of your LD's (that's easy to find out) and he'll appoint you.  There are always vacancies.

So I reached out to Raymond Jones, the chair of LD26.

Do you know him ?
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2020, 08:36:18 pm »
Quote from: HikerGuy83 on December 06, 2020, 07:47:11 pm
So I reached out to Raymond Jones, the chair of LD26.

Do you know him ?

No.  It's been a while, and I was never in a Mesa District.   :shrug:
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For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Online Hoodat

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2020, 08:38:04 pm »
Quote from: HikerGuy83 on November 27, 2020, 07:18:38 pm
Do you participate in the Mesa LD25 group ?

I once participated in an LSD25 group.
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If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.     -Dwight Eisenhower-

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Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #16 on: December 06, 2020, 09:43:24 pm »
Quote from: Hoodat on December 06, 2020, 08:38:04 pm
I once participated in an LSD25 group.

Do you still live in LD25 ?
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Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #17 on: December 06, 2020, 09:44:10 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on December 06, 2020, 08:36:18 pm
No.  It's been a while, and I was never in a Mesa District.   :shrug:

They say they meet every month.

Do you know if that is some kind of leadership team or is it open to the public ?
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Offline DB

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2020, 09:52:41 pm »
Quote from: HikerGuy83 on December 06, 2020, 09:43:24 pm
Do you still live in LD25 ?

He's messing with you... LSD25...
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2020, 09:19:47 am »
Quote from: HikerGuy83 on December 06, 2020, 09:44:10 pm
They say they meet every month.

Do you know if that is some kind of leadership team or is it open to the public ?

The Chairman of the District will tell you.  The monthlies I used to go to in Chandler were open to invited guests.  The meetings are for all PCs.  It's not a "leadership meeting," those are Executive Sessions with just the officers, usually held just before the regular meetings.
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For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #20 on: December 07, 2020, 10:56:38 am »
Quote from: DB on December 06, 2020, 09:52:41 pm
He's messing with you... LSD25...

Who is messing with who ????

:)
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Online Hoodat

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #21 on: December 07, 2020, 12:58:14 pm »
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If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.     -Dwight Eisenhower-

"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."     -Ayn Rand-

Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #22 on: December 11, 2020, 11:15:06 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on December 07, 2020, 09:19:47 am
The Chairman of the District will tell you.  The monthlies I used to go to in Chandler were open to invited guests.  The meetings are for all PCs.  It's not a "leadership meeting," those are Executive Sessions with just the officers, usually held just before the regular meetings.

Looking forward to his response.

I am interested to see what his take is on the one sided victories.

I did notice that one of the reps is seen as a full blown SJW and has had to stave off challenges by moderate democrats.

Might be time to get people to change affiliations and primary this guy.
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Offline HikerGuy83

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #23 on: December 20, 2020, 08:57:58 pm »
Still no response. from the chairman.

Bummer
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Arizona LD 26 Blowout
« Reply #24 on: December 20, 2020, 09:18:54 pm »
Quote from: HikerGuy83 on December 20, 2020, 08:57:58 pm
Still no response. from the chairman.

Bummer

It's the election fiasco and the holidays.

Let's see if things warm up.  If not, I can get hold of Kelli to help get the guy off the dime.  You may be finding out why the GOP is such crap in your district.  If things go as planned, she'll be a lot more willing to listen to me in a few weeks. 

All Officers of the various parts of the Party are up for Officer elections at the first meeting in January. 
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For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:
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