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Brace for Impact
The Editors July 01, 2020
T here are many, many ways to try to measure the 2020 presidential race. How well is Donald Trump doing in the states he needs to win compared to Joe Biden, such as Arizona and Michigan? (Not well.) How well is Donald Trump doing with the demographic groups he needs to retain, such as suburban moms and the elderly? (Not well.) Does the campaign have a record of accomplishment that energizes his base and a vision for the future that excites independents? (Not really.) Is the country going through a crisis? (Yes.) But is it giving the incumbent high marks for handling it, indicating an unwillingness to change horses before the race? (No, not at all.)
Those indicators are all ominous for Donald Trump. It’s ominous for Republicans attached to him, and for the conservative causes that rise and fall with the GOP’s fortunes.
Since the beginning of this campaign, I’ve preferred a simpler understanding. Donald Trump was the most broadly unpopular presidential nominee in his party’s history. And, unlike Hillary Clinton, the same cannot be said of Joe Biden. Four years ago, the polls were basically correct. On a popular-vote level, they were well within the most likely scenarios pollsters envisioned. But Trump played a blinder in what Michael Moore called the Brexit States: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Currently polls have Biden up in Michigan by double digits.
According to reporting at Politico, Trump knows he is currently running behind Joe Biden, and he is searching for an advantage. Maybe even a new nickname to replace “sleepy Joe.â€
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