Ex-Fed Chief Janet Yellen: 'Impossible to Know at This Point How Deep the Recession Will Be' Janet Yellen, the former head of the Federal Reserve, said the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic "has been rapid and sharp...different than any we've ever experienced in America."
And it's sure to get worse before it gets better, she told a video conference hosted by the Brookings Institution on Monday:
Frankly, it's impossible to know at this point how deep the recession will be. It depends critically on long the period of social distancing lasts. The hope is that lockdown can be lifted in May, and activity will begin to normalize in the early summer.
For the longer period of confinement, it certainly seems possible. There could be a second wave of infections after activity resumes. Every indication, so far, suggests there will be a huge plunge in output in the second quarter. The decline will be reported at an annual rate and could easily be 20 percent or higher.
I expect a very large rise in unemployment. The 3.3 million initial unemployment claims that were reported last Thursday suggests that the unemployment rate may already have spiked to 5.5 percent or so. That would be a two-percentage-point increase from February...............
https://www.cnsnews.com/article/national/susan-jones/ex-fed-chief-janet-yellen-impossible-know-point-how-deep-recession
