New York update: hospital occupancy rates (the state's best proxy for infection rates) continue to follow the bell curve. 13 days before Easter matches 13 days after.
If this continues, the stay-home order will likely expire on time, as by then the rates would roughly be the same as March 11—the day the first actions (closing the college campuses) were taken—except by that point, there wouldn't be anywhere near as many hidden infections like there were floating about March 11.
To further elaborate...
Note the risk of infection. Let's assume that anyone who goes to the hospital goes at the first sign of symptoms, which isn't true but it gives the minimum lead time between infection and hospitalization. We know the average is 5½ days. So today's hospitalizations reflect infections from 5 to 6 days ago. Likewise, the counterpart on the other side of the bell curve reflects infection risk from 5½ days before that.
So, consider the apex was April 12, Easter. We are, now, 14 days past that day. 14 days before that was March 29. Factor in the infection delay twice, and you get 11 days before that or March 18.
Now, let's consider the expiration of the stay-home order, May 15. That's 33 days after April 12. 33 days before that was March 10. 11 days before that was... February 28, a full two weeks before most of the state outside New Rochelle was paying attention to this. And unlike then, when testing was painfully slow, we now have testing quick enough to know within a day whether or not someone is infected.
It's a simplistic way of looking at it, but if I'm Cuomo, I see no reason to extend the stay-home order beyond its current expiration date, especially if this is going to be a phased re-opening.
