Calm Down, Breathe Through Your Nose - Covid19 NO BIG DEAL

[Hoodat]

Here's some relevant information:

Here’s What It’s Like to Survive Coronavirus in Wuhan

~snip~

(Jan 21)  The first four days of the illness were brutal. “I suffered from a high fever and pains that tortured every part of my body,” said Ye. He spent the days watching Japanese cartoons to distract from the discomfort.

~snip~

(Jan 28)  A week after the symptoms first began, Ye appeared to be reaching a turning point.

~snip~

(Jan 28) The young student’s condition was steadily improving when he finally secured one of the coveted test kits on Jan. 29, which confirmed he had the virus. His doctor gave him a five-day course of the antiviral drug Aluvia and sent him back to his three-bedroom apartment for quarantine

https://time.com/5783838/coronavirus-symptoms-wuhan-survivor/


Feb 7:  Tested negative.  Forced into government quarantine
Feb 12:  Released

So we are looking at somewhere between 12 and 17 days for full recovery.  But the only reason this person got counted at all is because they received a test.  And although this is but a single case, it indicates that the rises in new cases we are seeing today will result in rises in recoveries two weeks from now.

[catfish1957]

Okay, I don't know what some messages mean and they were deleted, but I hope someone is controlling the "Member Editorials" forum because, as said about 12 hours ago, there is more where this belongs. I hate doing this but it seems necessary.

Deletion via fox guarding hen house.  [redacted]

[truth_seeker]

I like Anecdotes, and this is a good one. 

As stated elsewhere, mife wife's friend in Harbin China messaged today their 6 week confinement ended today.

(She's part of a dog rescue/adoption non-profit moving animals from China (where they might be dinner, to the US and Canada where they become pets).

[ChemEngrMBA]

The people panicking and citing American fatalities in two figures as frightening to them are the same ones who dressed up as vaginas and called President Trump "stupid."   They're the same ones who don't know which bathroom to use.  They blamed Joe Biden's bribery of top Ukrainian officials on President Trump and predicted his removal from office in months of insane ranting, which continues apace for what history will note as comparably goofy to the Y2K panic of 1999.

[catfish1957]

The people panicking and citing American fatalities in two figures as frightening to them are the same ones who dressed up as vaginas and called President Trump "stupid."   They're the same ones who don't know which bathroom to use.  They blamed Joe Biden's bribery of top Ukrainian officials on President Trump and predicted his removal from office in months of insane ranting, which continues apace for what history will note as comparably goofy to the Y2K panic of 1999.

When this is all said and done, there is some significant 'splaining to do.  We just loss over $10 trillion dollars in market value, and getting ready to see disruptions in our lives that I have not seen in my 63 years. 

If this is a False alarm I hope the pitch forks come out enmasse. 

[Formerly Once-Ler]

<sigh>

@Hoodat  I went back and reread your post.  It sounds like I'm missing your point about the recoveries...

Again, that number is never going to go down.  It can only go up.

 

Recoveries will only go up too.

A more useful statistic would be the ratio of recoveries to deaths.  At some point, this number will rise, and then eventually level out.  Today, it stands at 11.06. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Closed Cases 160

74 (46%) Recovered / Discharged
86 (54%) Deaths

I might not be as good with the maths as you, but where are you getting your figures for "11.06" percent or is that supposed to be 11:06 which I'm also not calculating?  By my count over 100% as many people are dead vs recovered.  Is that better?

But you do everyone a disservice by posting death numbers being updated several times each day when the counting of recoveries lags far behind.

I don't want to disservice anyone.  Please help me calculate the ratio you desire.  Additionally, I have learned the counting lags far behind for recoveries, but you still want that factored into my non-death figures, yes?

Perhaps you should count the number of people who have it and are still alive or on their way to recovery.  It may not push the political narrative you want, but it would certainly boost the morale on this forum.

It's right at the link I provide each time, but I can do that!!!
A morale boosting 4,503 infected but still living 

Or you could calculate the ratio of cases to recoveries.  When it rises, it means new cases are outpacing recoveries.  But when it begins to drop, it means we are past the hump.  And once we stop getting new cases, this ratio will move closer to 1.  Today it stands at 2.30. 

Cases 4,503 divided by recovered 74 = 60.85 times as many cases . . . Sorry, I don't get the relevance.  Perhaps you mean 74 recoveries out of 4503 cases which equals 1.64% .  That is a much tinier number.   I can see why you like this ratio.   A massive rise in testing will results massive increases in confirmed cases and sink that number like the Hindenburg all while ignoring fatalities. 

I too celebrate the 74 recovered, and a pray they do not suffer lasting injury.

Thanx for struggling with me to make yourself understood.

[roamer_1]

When this is all said and done, there is some significant 'splaining to do.  We just loss over $10 trillion dollars in market value, and getting ready to see disruptions in our lives that I have not seen in my 63 years. 

If this is a False alarm I hope the pitch forks come out enmasse.

But there is no downside for the Chicken Littles...
If the projected numbers don't materialize - 200k-1.2m - The chicken Littles will claim the preventive measures worked.

When in reality, the inflated numbers the projections were made from belie the true infection v. death percentage, probably by an order of magnitude, and the virus merely ran its course, as it would have anyway (100k deaths or less).

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Sunday

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/politics/coronavirus-us-president-donald-trump-fauci-politics/index.html

Trump claims coronavirus is under control -- contradicting reality and his own top expert

Trump flagrantly contradicted Fauci's warnings at a White House briefing Sunday at which he celebrated the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates to 0% to help the shocked economy.

"It's a very contagious virus, it's incredible, but it's something we have tremendous control of," the President said.

Monday

https://www.france24.com/en/20200316-trump-admits-coronavirus-not-under-control-as-new-guidelines-unveiled-for-americans

Trump admits coronavirus 'not under control', says crisis may last all summer

When asked when the pandemic would subside, Trump said that “if we do a really good job" the crisis could pass by July or August, a far less optimistic take than in his earlier predictions that it could be over within weeks.

“We will rally together as one nation and we will defeat the virus,” the US president added. “We can turn the corner and turn it quickly.”

Trump also, for the first time, acknowledged that the virus, which has battered the global markets, may send the nation's economy into a recession, a potentially brutal blow for an incumbent in an election year.

Cheers to the President for figuring this out so quickly.  It's a much better message than the one I quote as a signature.  Anybody catch the Dow numbers today?

[ChemEngrMBA]

Trump claims coronavirus is under control -- contradicting reality and his own top expert

I find your perpetual cynicism extremely offensive not to mention inaccurate.

1.  Captain Edward Smith of the Titanic was THE "top expert" in commanding passenger liners when he sank it killing 1,512 people.
2.  Captain Jacob Van Zanten was THE "top expert" at KLM Royal Dutch Airlines when he took off and slammed into TWA's 747 at Tenerife, killing 583, the world's worst aviation disaster.

I have a long list of "top experts" being dead wrong.  It's the Fallacy of the Argument From Authority, which of course YOU claim to be.

ciao   TO my Ignore List with you

[Formerly Once-Ler]

I find your perpetual cynicism extremely offensive not to mention inaccurate.

noted

1.  Captain Edward Smith of the Titanic was THE "top expert" in commanding passenger liners when he sank it killing 1,512 people.
2.  Captain Jacob Van Zanten was THE "top expert" at KLM Royal Dutch Airlines when he took off and slammed into TWA's 747 at Tenerife, killing 583, the world's worst aviation disaster.

I'm glad you are not claiming the captain of our ship of state is an expert.

I have a long list of "top experts" being dead wrong.  It's the Fallacy of the Argument From Authority, which of course YOU claim to be.

I'm no expert.  I think the guys Trump gathered to combat this virus, and be ignored by him, are the experts.

ciao   TO my Ignore List with you

  Great President Trump impersonation.

[Neverdul]

I find your perpetual cynicism extremely offensive not to mention inaccurate.

1.  Captain Edward Smith of the Titanic was THE "top expert" in commanding passenger liners when he sank it killing 1,512 people.
2.  Captain Jacob Van Zanten was THE "top expert" at KLM Royal Dutch Airlines when he took off and slammed into TWA's 747 at Tenerife, killing 583, the world's worst aviation disaster.

I have a long list of "top experts" being dead wrong.  It's the Fallacy of the Argument From Authority, which of course YOU claim to be.

ciao   TO my Ignore List with you

@DeerSlayer
@Once-Ler

Actual picture of DeerSlayer putting people on his Ignore List



Before you put me on ignore Slayer:

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,395010.msg2168476.html#msg2168476

@TomSea – could you please also move the above to Member Editorials. Thanks!

[Gefn]

I like Anecdotes, and this is a good one. 

As stated elsewhere, mife wife's friend in Harbin China messaged today their 6 week confinement ended today.

(She's part of a dog rescue/adoption non-profit moving animals from China (where they might be dinner, to the US and Canada where they become pets).

Off topic, but bless your friend @truth_seeker for saving those animals. I think in this case, I speak for everyone here.

[Hoodat]

Actual picture of DeerSlayer putting people on his Ignore List

You got that right.

[ChemEngrMBA]

Actual picture of DeerSlayer putting people on his Ignore List

Oh my but aren't YOU clever! 
1.  You misnamed yourself.  Your post was terribly dull.  Here's why.
2.  Message boards don't involve listening.  You READ them.

That wasn't difficult, was it?  Try thinking before you post your giggly but inane retorts.

I'll bet you voted for Hillary.  Here's something for you:

http://HatefulHillary.blogspot.com

[Cyber Liberty]

Oh my but aren't YOU clever! 
1.  You misnamed yourself.  Your post was terribly dull.  Here's why.
2.  Message boards don't involve listening.  You READ them.

That wasn't difficult, was it?  Try thinking before you post your giggly but inane retorts.

I'll bet you voted for Hillary.  Here's something for you:

http://HatefulHillary.blogspot.com

Hey, lighten up!  Extend to others the latitude you expect to be extended to you.  We're all in this together.

[Cyber Liberty]

Off topic, but bless your friend @truth_seeker for saving those animals. I think in this case, I speak for everyone here.

That speaks for me, but I can't speak for the others.  I can't imagine the pain of seeing a Good Dawg with love in his eyes cringing in a pen, waiting to be slaughtered.  Folks who can rescue pets like that are far greater than I am, in the "heart" department.

[ChemEngrMBA]

Hey, lighten up!  Extend to others the latitude you expect to be extended to you.  We're all in this together.

She ridicules me and you ask ME to "lighten up"?

Why don't you extend some latitude to those who don't take such bullshit lying down.

And NO, we're NOT all in this panic mode  together.  I refuse to play the panic game when 85 is about three orders of magnitude below the flu deaths of two years ago.

[Cyber Liberty]

She ridicules me and you ask ME to "lighten up"?

Why don't you extend some latitude to those who don't take such bullshit lying down.

And NO, we're NOT all in this panic mode  together.  I refuse to play the panic game when 85 is about three orders of magnitude below the flu deaths of two years ago.

People have different perceptions.  One man's panic is another's caution.  And, you will notice I extend a whole lot of latitude, as an Admin and Mod.  If I did not, I'd have been sacked by the boss lady some time ago.

I would not ask something of anybody if I'm not prepared to do it myself.

[Hoodat]

@Hoodat  I went back and reread your post.  It sounds like I'm missing your point about the recoveries...

@Once-Ler

In relative terms, there is a lag between a death and a recovery.  Let's say 10 people are confirmed as infected at the same time.  On day 5, one dies.  The others do not.  Yet the others won't be counted as 'recovered' until day 21.  Thus for 16 days, stats will show 1 death (10%) and 0 recoveries (0%).  Only after Day 21 will the stats show 90% recovery.

Once enough time has passed and recoveries begin to be counted (as is the case in Hubei), we will have more complete (and more accurate) data.  But until that happens, showing only death data (with wildly disproportionate test samples throughout the world) will give the false impression that fatality rates are much higher than they really are.

Closed Cases 160

74 (46%) Recovered / Discharged
86 (54%) Deaths

I might not be as good with the maths as you, but where are you getting your figures for "11.06" percent or is that supposed to be 11:06 which I'm also not calculating?  By my count over 100% as many people are dead vs recovered.  Is that better?

My numbers were global numbers from the Johns Hopkins website - not US numbers.  US figures numbers are premature because testing is not widespread, thus not indicative of the population as a whole, and because we haven't yet reached the 'recovered' state for most patients.  The '11.06' is a ratio, not a percentage.  11.06 to 1.  Today, it has dropped to 10.75.  The case-to-recovery ratio has risen to 2.35.   Both are currently heading in the wrong direction, which shows that the disease is still spreading faster than the recoveries.  When case-to-recovery begins to fall, it means that the spread has slowed down globally.  And when recoveries-to-death ration begins to rise, it means we are getting a more accurate assessment for the morbidity rate of this disease.

Incidentally, the recovery-death ratio in Hubei is now 18.00.  I believe the US will do even better.  Look for final numbers in the 30s.

I too celebrate the 74 recovered, and a pray they do not suffer lasting injury.

Thanx for struggling with me to make yourself understood.

My communications skills are not the best, but I will always try.  Thanks for your patience.  My overall point is that you can't determine who will win a basketball game after the first 3 minutes of play.

[TomSea]

85? That's about all one has, how many full flu-seasons? Oh, none. Gee.

No seasons with already a lot of preventative measures in play, not allowing cruise ships to dock, screening at airports, etc. etc.

Plus the fact corona is more lethal and contagious than most strains of flue.

85, 85, do I heard 90,  Sounds more like an auction.


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[Neverdul]

She ridicules me and you ask ME to "lighten up"?

Why don't you extend some latitude to those who don't take such bullshit lying down.

And NO, we're NOT all in this panic mode  together.  I refuse to play the panic game when 85 is about three orders of magnitude below the flu deaths of two years ago.

Trust me Deery, I don't need to ridicule you as you do such a good job of it yourself.

 

[Formerly Once-Ler]

My communications skills are not the best, but I will always try.  Thanks for your patience.  My overall point is that you can't determine who will win a basketball game after the first 3 minutes of play.

Thanx for your substantive reply.  I didn't disagree with anything enough to want to pursue it.  Stay healthy @Hoodat

[ChemEngrMBA]

Trust me Deery, I don't need to ridicule you as you do such a good job of it yourself.

IF that were true, then why did you ridicule me, and now contradict yourself, "Neverdul" (sic).

The point of this thread, which obviously you have yet to discern, is to give people facts and deter them from the
irrational panic.  So far, you and others like you have only detracted from common sense and dissemination of facts contrary to the panic.   

[musiclady]

IF that were true, then why did you ridicule me, and now contradict yourself, "Neverdul" (sic).

The point of this thread, which obviously you have yet to discern, is to give people facts and deter them from the
irrational panic.  So far, you and others like you have only detracted from common sense and dissemination of facts contrary to the panic.

You’ve done a heck of a lot of ridiculing here for a newcomer.

Take a step back and think twice about accusing conservatives of voting for Hillary because they have a different view on things than you do.

That’s verboten here, in case you’re too new to know that.

[libertybele]

Good grief ... squabbling between TBR members at a time like this.