I'd like to believe it is higher productivity per well or faster drilling but your idea has more merit
I think it is a combination of factors.
Fewer exploration wells are being drilled when the ROI looks grim in view of unconventional resources, DUCs, and prices likely staying relatively low in the future. DIscounts in areas where takeaway capacity is limited are a further drag on development and completions.
DUCs are at an all time high, about half of those in the Permian Basin, and there are still takeaway capacity issues there, and everywhere else, for that matter. Infrastructure still hasn't caught up. Between prices and capacity issues, those will likely keep the DUC count high.
In addition, drilling has become far more efficient in just the past few years: 300 ft./hr used to be considered really good, now 500 ft./hr is the standard in the Bakken/Three Forks play. So one rig can do 4 wells in 6 weeks tops, (with casing strings and liner, from surface), where 4 wells took a year in the 80s, and were only vertical wells. That incredible increase in performance and tool reliability means that rigs can drill as much as double (or more) their number could just 10 years ago.
So, the emphasis of the industry shifts, from drilling to infrastructure to handle the new capacity, to compltions, depending on which is lagging, and as it lags, the competition in the shrinking seectors to perform as never before is intense. The production and midstream sectors are about the only part of the industry I expect to see steady growth in the near term. I expect the rest will maintain current levels in developmental drilling.
