Texas Scorecard By Grant Hillman August 27, 2019
A majority of nonwhite Christians in Texas self-identify as “conservative.†So, why do they vote for Democrats? Where’s the Disconnect?In the decades following the “counter-cultural†social revolutions of the 1960s, the Republican Party has claimed to have cornered the market, not just on conservative political ideologies but on self-identified Christian voters as well. The peak of the Republican/Christian crossover was arguably during the 1980s, as Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush turned the Evangelical Christian surge into three consecutive terms of Republican control in the White House.
However, nothing lasts forever.
The Trump era of journalism has produced an onslaught of articles and studies heralding the evolution of a brand-new America: a more ethnically diverse, socially progressive, and less Christian America.
Democrats celebrate this vision, as their party bets its future on intersectionality—the theory that discrimination by class, race, gender, religion, and sexual orientation are related and should be combated together. As per the recent debates, the plethora of Democrat candidates competing for the 2020 nomination seem to view themselves as the saviors of these “oppressed†classes. A large source of the “oppression†they allude to comes from the traditional Christian worldview.
One would think Republicans would notice this trend and scramble to appeal to traditionally Christian voting demographics. Yet Democrats still have a monopoly on many groups who would otherwise be considered “socially†conservative.
The Pew Research Center conducted a nationwide Religious Landscape Study in 2014, which included polling of over 2,500 adults in Texas. With all individuals considered, a plurality of all Texas Christians leans Republican (43 percent), while 37 percent lean Democrat. A plurality also identifies as conservative (44 percent), while just 18 percent of those polled identify as liberal. A majority of those polled (57 percent) believe abortion should be illegal in most or all cases, and a majority (53 percent) oppose same-sex marriage.
At first glance, this picture looks good for Republicans. With 77 percent of Texans identifying with some Christian denomination and much of this constituency espousing socially conservative views, it should not be difficult to harbor support from all groups occupying this sphere. Closer analysis of the data, however, paints a different picture.
Articles heralding massive demographic shifts within Texas and prophesying the doom of Lone Star State Republicans have become a media constant since the near miss of “Betomania†last November. While much of the coverage on this issue is highly sensationalized and exploited for partisan gain, the underlying theme cannot be ignored away.
While 44 percent of Texas Christians affiliate with either the “Evangelical†or “Mainline†Protestant denominations (which are historically considered to be primarily “whiteâ€), the growing ethnic diversity in Texas places more importance on the historically “nonwhite†denominations—this includes “black†Protestantism and Catholicism, with the latter demographic being highly populated by Hispanics.
This is where things start to go wrong for Texas Republicans. While a plurality of black Protestants and Catholics in Texas self-identify as politically conservative (both 34 percent), each constituency has a solid allegiance to the Democrat Party (45 percent for Catholics, 74 percent for black Protestants).
More:
https://texasscorecard.com/state/wheres-the-disconnect/