This information came to me in an email:
In June 2019, “…State Republican Chairman James Dickey presented a comprehensive report on the
preparations for the 2020 election.
‘RED ALERT TEXAS’ is the 2020 Objective to win Texas for President
Trump because ‘There is no path to a Republican White House victory without Texas.’"
The presentation reviewed polling data post 2018 election that showed a slightly higher favorable response for
Senator Ted Cruz (50%) than President Trump (48%) in Texas. The Republican National Committee reported
that "there are too few existing paths to 270 electoral votes for our presidential nominee.......We need to
aggressively work.....where we have infrastructure advantages over the Democrats based on our foothold in the
governorships.....this requires an early commitment to building the team." In 2016 Trump won 306 electoral
votes.
A 2020 loss of Texas reduces Trump's total to 268 electoral votes, 2 short of the required total of 270
votes.
Dickey reported that in 2018 a total of 8,371,655 votes were cast in the Texas race for United States Senator.
Cruz received 4,260,553 votes (50.89%) and O'Rourke 4,045,632 (48.33%). According to his presentation, The
Presidential Election Voter Spread in Texas (percent margin of victory) was: Year 2000- 21.32%; 2004-
22.87%; 2008-11.77%; 2012- 15.72% and 2016- 8.99%. Six suburban counties in 2018 (Tarrant, Collin,
Denton, Montgomery, Fort Bend, and Williamson) cast 23.5% of Senator Cruz's total vote with Montgomery
County leading the way with 137,395, which was 72.28% of the county's total.
In 2018 Republicans lost two Congressional races, one in the Houston area and one in the Dallas area. There
were nine Congressional races narrowly won by Republicans. In a worst-case scenario, it is possible that
Republicans could hold only thirteen Congressional Districts after the 2020 election, giving the Democrats
twenty three of the thirty six seats.
Here are the projections for Voter Registration and Voter Turnout in 2020.
Austin Area- 2018 Registered Voters 1,242, 338
2020 Projected Increase 242,747
2020 Projected Registered Voters 1,484.085
2020 Projected Voter Turnout 1,007,526
% of Total = 8.7%
Dallas/Fort Worth Area- 2018 Registered Voters 3,895,590
2020 Projected Increase 677,991
2020 Projected Registered Voters 4,573,581
2020 Projected Voter Turnout 2,988,689
% of Total = 26.0%
Houston Area- 2018 Registered Voters 3,523,856
2020 Projected Increase 611,743
2020 Projected Registered Voters 4,135,599
2020 Projected Voter Turnout 2,619,476
% of Total = 22.8%
San Antonio Area- 2018 Registered Voters 1,299,676
2020 Projected Increase 235,667
2020 Projected Registered Voters 1,535,343
2020 Projected Voter Turnout 931,929
% of Total = 8.1%
Statewide Totals- 2018 Registered Voters 15,793,257
2020 Projected Increase 2,575,357
2020 Projected Registered Voters 18,368,614
2020 Projected Voter Turnout 11,480, 595
What must we do to win? RED ALERT TEXAS recommends:
Turnout 6 million Republicans in 2020
Identify and register Republican voters
Recruit candidates for every position on the ballot
Hire 50 field representatives
Open 6 campaign headquarters throughout the state
Improve messaging
Fund campaign cost of $3 million
Request RNC fund one-half of the cost of the campaign
Victoria33