Tennessee alarm bell rings for GOP: Marsha Blackburn's lead wiped out in two shock Senate polls
by Daniel Chaitin
| November 02, 2018 09:30 PM
Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., and former Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, are tied in two new polls out for the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee days before the midterm elections.
One of the polls, from East Tennessee State University, shows the candidates at 44 percent apiece among likely voters, according to the Tennessean. The second, from Nashville-based Targoz Strategic Marketing, found 48 percent of likely and early voters support each candidate. Early voting ended in the state on Thursday.
Republicans view Tennessee as a "firewall" state protecting them from the loss of the chamber. With the current balance of power 51 to 49 and Democrats looking highly likely to lose North Dakota, the GOP could afford to lose Arizona and Nevada while failing to pick up Florida, Missouri or Indiana and still survive with 50 seats and Vice President Mike Pence's casting vote. That calculation would be swept away by losing Tennessee.
The new polling is a break from the recent slate of surveys showing Blackburn with an advantage. The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, which does not include these two new surveys, shows Blackburn up 6.8 percentage points.
The Tennessean notes that the ETSU poll shows Bredesen has an advantage with independent voters, 46 percent to Blackburn's 35 percent, as well as with women, 51 percent to 38 percent. Blackburn, meanwhile, leads with men 57 percent to Bredesen's 35 percent.
President Trump is scheduled to give Blackburn a late boost when he participates in a rally at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga on Sunday.
Blackburn and Bredesen are vying to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn.
The ETSU survey was conducted by phone from Oct. 22-29 with 610 likely voters. It had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/marsha-blackburns-lead-erased-in-tennessee-senate-polls-released-days-before-midterm-elections