Author Topic: Real Clear Politics Is Predicting A Red Wave In The Senate (Read 2162 times)

mystery-ak · « **on:** October 11, 2018, 06:15:30 pm »

Real Clear Politics Is Predicting A Red Wave In The Senate
12:55 PM 10/11/2018
Evie Fordham | Politics and Health Care Reporter

RealClearPolitics data is pointing to a red wave in the Senate this November, with recent polls showing key seats like North Dakota and Arizona going or staying red.

RealClear currently predicts that at least 49 Senate seats will be Republican and at least 44 will be Democrats, with seven toss-up races. In three of those toss-ups, recent polls contain good news for Republican candidates. If Republicans do win in the four toss-up races where they have the best chances â€” Arizona, Tennessee, Nevada and Missouri â€” the Senate could see a net gain of up to two senators, from 51 to 53.

In Arizonaâ€™s so-called â€œtoss-upâ€ race, Republican candidate Martha McSally has a 6-point lead on Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in the most recent poll from early October.

Two of the most recent Tennessee Senate race polls cited by RealClear show Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn up by five and eight points compared to Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen.

more
https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/11/red-wave-senate-real-clear/

jpsb · « **Reply #1 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:33:21 pm »

We should pick up seats in the Senate it The House where we might be in trouble.

Frank Cannon · « **Reply #2 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:36:53 pm »

Quote from: jpsb on October 11, 2018, 06:33:21 pm

We should pick up seats in the Senate it The House where we might be in trouble.

I don't see how an election that is going to add seats in one chamber isn't going to have the same effect in the other. The only places I see issues in the House are because of the states that got jammed up with Gerrymandering issues.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #3 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:38:38 pm »

Quote from: jpsb on October 11, 2018, 06:33:21 pm

We should pick up seats in the Senate it The House where we might be in trouble.

Still, really good news for all of us who are doubting RBG can last another two years.

With a 53-47 margin, better chance we can tell difi to pound sand on the next SCOTUS nominee.

Also, I am not so sure this Kav backlash might have some carryover to the House. I am guessing it will be close either way.

jpsb · « **Reply #4 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:38:45 pm »

Quote from: Frank Cannon on October 11, 2018, 06:36:53 pm

I don't see how an election that is going to add seats in one chamber isn't going to have the same effect in the other. The only places I see issues in the House are because of the states that got jammed up with Gerrymandering issues.

I hope you are right, it is vital to keep the House in GOP hands.

Frank Cannon · « **Reply #5 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:41:18 pm »

Quote from: jpsb on October 11, 2018, 06:38:45 pm

I hope you are right, it is vital to keep the House in GOP hands.

No. The vitalness is with the Senate. The Rats can take the House but without the Senate and WH they can't do a damn thing. As a matter of fact if the Rats get the House they are going to go so nutso because of all the absurd promises they made the GOP will destroy them in 2020.

austingirl · « **Reply #6 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:41:27 pm »

Quote from: Frank Cannon on October 11, 2018, 06:36:53 pm

I don't see how an election that is going to add seats in one chamber isn't going to have the same effect in the other. The only places I see issues in the House are because of the states that got jammed up with Gerrymandering issues.

I'm hoping that the anger and disgust at the democrat smear carries through November 6th. If Republicans vote straight GOP, the House may remain GOP, too.

jpsb · « **Reply #7 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:45:34 pm »

Quote from: Frank Cannon on October 11, 2018, 06:41:18 pm

No. The vitalness is with the Senate. The Rats can take the House but without the Senate and WH they can't do a damn thing. As a matter of fact if the Rats get the House they are going to go so nutso because of all the absurd promises they made the GOP will destroy them in 2020.

The border wall and immigration reform is dead if the Rats take the House. The House in rat hands
means the end of investigating the corruption in Obama's DOJ/FBI/CIA/etc. Trump's agenda is
finished if the rats take the House.

bilo · « **Reply #8 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:46:44 pm »

Quote from: Frank Cannon on October 11, 2018, 06:36:53 pm

I don't see how an election that is going to add seats in one chamber isn't going to have the same effect in the other. The only places I see issues in the House are because of the states that got jammed up with Gerrymandering issues.

I happened to catch Rush yesterday and he made an interesting point. The seats in most danger for the Pubs in the House are held by "moderates". If the Pubs can hold on in the House (I'm starting to think they will) the House should be more conservative.

On the Senate side only picking up 2 seats is pretty disappointing. The numbers are all in favor of the Pubs as far as the number of Rats trying to hold seats versus the number of Pubs. I think 4-5 seats is more realistic.

At this point, I don't think the polls accurately reflect the public's perception of the Rats. They are an angry mob looking to destroy anyone who gets in their way. They lack any civility, or common decency. I can't believe a majority of the country really wants at least 2 yrs of stupid investigations, attempted impeachments, and hysteria.

Frank Cannon · « **Reply #9 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:48:54 pm »

Quote from: jpsb on October 11, 2018, 06:45:34 pm

The border wall and immigration reform is dead if the Rats take the House. The House in rat hands
means the end of investigating the corruption in Obama's DOJ/FBI/CIA/etc. Trump's agenda is
finished if the rats take the House.

His agenda is going to slow to a crawl anyway. As soon as this election is over guess what starts.......the 2020 Presidential election.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #10 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:50:07 pm »

Quote from: mystery-ak on October 11, 2018, 06:15:30 pm

Real Clear Politics Is Predicting A Red Wave In The Senate

Speaking of RCP ... Check out the favorability ratings of US leaders (based on composite polling)

Favorability Ratings: U.S. Political Leaders

Favorable   Unfavorable   Spread
Donald Trump   41.5     54.5     -13.0
Nancy Pelosi   27.8     52.5     -24.7
Paul Ryan     30.7     52.3     -21.6
Chuck Schumer   29.3     43.0     -13.7
Mitch McConnell   22.8     47.5     -24.7

Trump beats them all.

bilo · « **Reply #11 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:52:01 pm »

Quote from: catfish1957 on October 11, 2018, 06:38:38 pm

Still, really good news for all of us who are doubting RBG can last another two years.

With a 53-47 margin, better chance we can tell difi to pound sand on the next SCOTUS nominee.

Also, I am not so sure this Kav backlash might have some carryover to the House. I am guessing it will be close either way.

I doubt the Pubs will tell difi anything especially if Grassley is still chairman.

I think the Kavanaugh backlash will have a big effect. I think the mob mentality of the Rats and their calls for violence scare a lot of people, especially moms with sons. It could be wishful thinking, but other than deep blue states I don't think the Rats are going to add a lot of seats.

jpsb · « **Reply #12 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:54:06 pm »

Quote from: Frank Cannon on October 11, 2018, 06:48:54 pm

His agenda is going to slow to a crawl anyway. As soon as this election is over guess what starts.......the 2020 Presidential election.

True, off to the bar for my afternoon Scotch.

jpsb · « **Reply #13 on:** October 11, 2018, 06:58:41 pm »

Quote from: bilo on October 11, 2018, 06:52:01 pm

I doubt the Pubs will tell difi anything especially if Grassley is still chairman.

I think the Kavanaugh backlash will have a big effect. I think the mob mentality of the Rats and their calls for violence scare a lot of people, especially moms with sons. It could be wishful thinking, but other than deep blue states I don't think the Rats are going to add a lot of seats.

I'm hearing a rumor the Lindsey Gram is going to take over SJC. And there's a decent chance DiFi
might lose. With two rats running for that seat R's get to decide who wins. I hope all the R's in
Cali vote her out by voting for her opponent.

bilo · « **Reply #14 on:** October 11, 2018, 07:00:58 pm »

Quote from: jpsb on October 11, 2018, 06:58:41 pm

I'm hearing a rumor the Lindsey Gram is going to take over SJC. And there's a decent chance DiFi
might lose. With two rats running for that seat R's get to decide who wins. I hope all the R's in
Cali vote her out by voting for her opponent.

She sure is a disgusting piece of work.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #15 on:** October 11, 2018, 07:05:59 pm »

Quote from: jpsb on October 11, 2018, 06:58:41 pm

I'm hearing a rumor the Lindsey Gram is going to take over SJC. And there's a decent chance DiFi
might lose. With two rats running for that seat R's get to decide who wins. I hope all the R's in
Cali vote her out by voting for her opponent.

It could happen. She's under fire from both sides. The Pubbies have nobody to vote for, and the Rats in CA are farther to the left than DiFi, and prefer the Rat running against her.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #16 on:** October 11, 2018, 07:09:34 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on October 11, 2018, 07:05:59 pm

It could happen. She's under fire from both sides. The Pubbies have nobody to vote for, and the Rats in CA are farther to the left than DiFi, and prefer the Rat running against her.

Honestly, her little Blasey - Ford stunt may be the one biggest factor with dims losing seats. I'll bet money she loses the seat.

Suppressed · « **Reply #17 on:** October 11, 2018, 07:13:04 pm »

Quote from: catfish1957 on October 11, 2018, 06:50:07 pm

Paul Ryan 30.7 52.3 -21.6

Funny thing is how Ryan is hated by both sides. The Left says he's too conservative. The Right says he's too liberal.

Frank Cannon · « **Reply #18 on:** October 11, 2018, 07:16:13 pm »

Quote from: Suppressed on October 11, 2018, 07:13:04 pm

Funny thing is how Ryan is hated by both sides. The Left says he's too conservative. The Right says he's too liberal.

The Left said that Charlie Dent and Kasich were too Conservative. That's no yardstick for anything.

bilo · « **Reply #19 on:** October 11, 2018, 07:21:11 pm »

Quote from: Suppressed on October 11, 2018, 07:13:04 pm

Funny thing is how Ryan is hated by both sides. The Left says he's too conservative. The Right says he's too liberal.

It's what conservatives think that matters. The Pub party has moved to the right, thanks to the Tea party and obama.

It's good he's retiring. He was terrible. He reflected the sore loser wing of the Pub party. After Trump won he should have gotten behind Trump in a big way and all he did was "hedge his bets". If anything the Kavanaugh inquisition should have shown the few Pubs that didn't already realize it that the Rats are radical leftists who will destroy anyone who gets in their way.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #20 on:** October 11, 2018, 07:23:43 pm »

Quote from: catfish1957 on October 11, 2018, 07:09:34 pm

Honestly, her little Blasey - Ford stunt may be the one biggest factor with dims losing seats. I'll bet money she loses the seat.

I don't see it. RCP average has her up by 17.

catfish1957 · « **Reply #21 on:** October 11, 2018, 07:24:31 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on October 11, 2018, 07:23:43 pm

I don't see it. RCP average has her up by 17.

Sorry, I meant her committee chair seat.

Emjay · « **Reply #22 on:** October 11, 2018, 07:39:55 pm »

Quote from: catfish1957 on October 11, 2018, 06:38:38 pm

Still, really good news for all of us who are doubting RBG can last another two years.

With a 53-47 margin, better chance we can tell difi to pound sand on the next SCOTUS nominee.

Also, I am not so sure this Kav backlash might have some carryover to the House. I am guessing it will be close either way.

The Kav fiasco was a huge negative for democrats and people have not forgotten it. I think we'll keep majorities in both houses.

As for Ruth Bader Ginsburg, I don't see her lasting another year. She seems to be in the latter stages of dementia.

cato potatoe · « **Reply #23 on:** October 11, 2018, 08:00:23 pm »

Quote from: bilo on October 11, 2018, 06:52:01 pm

I doubt the Pubs will tell difi anything especially if Grassley is still chairman.

In a recent interview, Grassley said that were a Supreme Court vacancy to occur in 2020, he would follow the Biden rule. He needs to be replaced after the midterms.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #24 on:** October 11, 2018, 08:12:57 pm »

Quote from: catfish1957 on October 11, 2018, 07:24:31 pm

Sorry, I meant her committee chair seat.

Hmmmm. She's "ranking member," and only gets Chair if the Rats win the Majority. I'm sure Chuckie Schumie will go down seniority lines when picking Chairs.