2.5 Billion Pounds of Meat Piles Up in U.S. as Production Grows, Exports Slow

[Hoodat]

2.5 Billion Pounds of Meat Piles Up in U.S. as Production Grows, Exports Slow

By Jacob Bunge     |     July 22, 2018 10:00 a.m. ET

Meat is piling up in U.S. cold-storage warehouses, fueled by a surge in supplies and trade disputes that are eroding demand.

Federal data, coming as early as Monday, are expected to show a record level of beef, pork, poultry and turkey being stockpiled in U.S. facilities, rising above 2.5 billion pounds, agricultural analysts said.

U.S. consumers’ appetite for meat is growing, but not fast enough to keep up with record production of hogs and chickens. That leaves the U.S. meat industry increasingly reliant on exports, but Mexico and China—among the largest foreign buyers of U.S. meat—have both set tariffs on U.S. pork products in response to U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and other goods. U.S. hams, chops and livers have become sharply more expensive in those markets, which is starting to slow sales, industry officials said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-piles-up-as-production-grows-and-exports-slow-1532268000


Retaliatory tariffs are causing a decrease in exports?  Oh my!  If only someone could have predicted beforehand that this would happen.

[catfish1957]

2.5 Billion Pounds of Meat Piles Up in U.S. as Production Grows, Exports Slow

By Jacob Bunge     |     July 22, 2018 10:00 a.m. ET

Meat is piling up in U.S. cold-storage warehouses, fueled by a surge in supplies and trade disputes that are eroding demand.



Retaliatory tariffs are causing a decrease in exports?  Oh my!  If only someone could have predicted beforehand that this would happen.

You mean I might be able to buy steak for under $8/lb?  Yeah that sucks.  /s

[GrouchoTex]

You mean I might be able to buy steak for under $8/lb?  Yeah that sucks.  /s

I was hoping brisket prices would drop....

[the_doc]

You mean I might be able to buy steak for under $8/lb?  Yeah that sucks.  /s

I wonder how delicious the proverbial six-dollar hamburger would taste if made from a half-pound or so of ground-up USDA PRIME TENDERLOIN FILETS, already wonderfully DRY-AGED (having spent extra time in the stockpile).

Maybe the Wagyu beef guys could put this sort of product out on the market for us.  That little merchandizing experiment could fix the reported problem that although America's appetite for me is growing, it's not growing fast enough.

[catfish1957]

I wonder how delicious the proverbial six-dollar hamburger would taste if made from a half-pound or so of ground-up USDA PRIME TENDERLOIN FILETS, already wonderfully DRY-AGED (having spent extra time in the stockpile).

Maybe the Wagyu beef guys could put this sort of product out on the market for us.  That little merchandizing experiment could fix the reported problem that although America's appetite for me is growing, it's not growing fast enough.

And OTOH....  how better to win a trade war when you opponents have to pay twice the price for meat?  And for other food items for that matter.

Kind of wonder did they think this thing through.

[the_doc]

I was hoping brisket prices would drop....

That would freak out a lot of meat purveyors in California.  Californians would quit grilling tri-tip and calling it barbecue.  California's butchers would have to figure out what to do with the sudden tri-tip surplus.

(All kidding aside, several years ago a Texas butcher said to me "Do we have any tri-tip roasts?  No, that's the stuff they try to barbecue in California.  We have no demand at all for tri-tip, so we grind it up and work it off into our various grades of hamburger meat.")

[GrouchoTex]

Funny, that my Brother-in-Law tried to find a Brisket in Colorado and was told the same thing, ground up for hamburger.
Well, I hope it all finds a market.
I had been told that the biggest losers in a tariff war would be farmers and ranchers.
I am all for the price dropping here, though.

[DCPatriot]

You mean I might be able to buy steak for under $8/lb?  Yeah that sucks.  /s

To think...the entire filet tenderloin for $40?   

[jmyrlefuller]

Must be the bird flu, porcine diarrhea and drop that drove meat prices up over the past few years have finally let up.

[catfish1957]

Funny, that my Brother-in-Law tried to find a Brisket in Colorado and was told the same thing, ground up for hamburger.
Well, I hope it all finds a market.
I had been told that the biggest losers in a tariff war would be farmers and ranchers.
I am all for the price dropping here, though.

I think we need to have a lot of cooking shows prepared ASAP grilling meat.  Then  export those  to our trading partners. 

Bring them to their knees

[GrouchoTex]

I think we need to have a lot of cooking shows prepared ASAP grilling meat.  Then  export those  to our trading partners. 

Bring them to their knees

LOL, yep, that would be funny.

[roamer_1]

You mean I might be able to buy steak for under $8/lb?  Yeah that sucks.  /s

EIGHT BUCKS a pound? Really?

[Fishrrman]

Title:
"2.5 Billion Pounds of Meat Piles Up in U.S. as Production Grows, Exports Slow"

Lower domestic prices -- drastically, if need be.
The surpluses will sell off quickly.

Isn't that how "supply and demand" is supposed to work?

[roamer_1]

Title:
"2.5 Billion Pounds of Meat Piles Up in U.S. as Production Grows, Exports Slow"

Lower domestic prices -- drastically, if need be.
The surpluses will sell off quickly.

Isn't that how "supply and demand" is supposed to work?

And what does that do to the rancher, who bought the cow high, fed it for two years, expecting a return?

[DCPatriot]

And what does that do to the rancher, who bought the cow high, fed it for two years, expecting a return?

The same thing that happens to the unlucky home buyer at the start of a housing crash.   

[RoosGirl]

EIGHT BUCKS a pound? Really?

That's cheap for beef for the more popular cuts.  Choice ribeye here runs about $11/lb and even skirt steak, which has become en vogue, is that much.

[roamer_1]

That's cheap for beef for the more popular cuts.  Choice ribeye here runs about $11/lb and even skirt steak, which has become en vogue, is that much.

Holy crap! Guess I'll keep rollin my own... 

[Suppressed]

The same thing that happens to the unlucky home buyer at the start of a housing crash.   

New slogan for 2020....

"Trump: he's like a housing crash!"

[roamer_1]

New slogan for 2020....

"Trump: he's like a housing crash!"

Ain't it great? The whole West tips over, but back east gets cheap meat for a minute or two.
Nothing like a manufactured crisis to pick winners, eh?

[Suppressed]

Ain't it great? The whole West tips over, but back east gets cheap meat for a minute or two.
Nothing like a manufactured crisis to pick winners, eh?

Makes up a bit for the east-coast-subsidized public grazing land, I guess.

[roamer_1]

Makes up a bit for the east-coast-subsidized public grazing land, I guess.

There is no 'subsidized public grazing'. There is Range.

[Suppressed]

There is no 'subsidized public grazing'. There is Range.

Leased at far below the market rate.  Compare private and public rates, and the costs to the federal government to administer these lands, and you see the subsidy.

https://www.blm.gov/programs/natural-resources/rangelands-and-grazing/livestock-grazing

LIVESTOCK GRAZING ON PUBLIC LANDS

[...]

In Fiscal Year 2015, the BLM was allocated $79 million for its rangeland management program.  Of that figure, the agency spent $36.2 million, or 46 percent, on livestock grazing administration.  The other funds covered such activities as weed management, rangeland monitoring, planning, water development, vegetation restoration, and habitat improvement.  In 2015, the BLM collected $14.5 million in grazing fees.  The receipts from these annual fees, in accordance with legislative requirements, are shared with state and local governments.

Yeah, for every dollar collected in fees, $2.50 is spent...with taxpayers making up that ridiculous subsidy.   Market value is far higher than what ranchers are charged.  See https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/jrm/article/viewFile/9843/9455 (Torell, L. A., N. R. Rimbey, L. W. Van Tassell, J. A. Tanaka, and E. T. Bartlett. 2003. "An evaluation of the federal grazing fee formula." J. Range. Manage. 56: 577-584.)

Check out the vertical axes on this graph (from 2003...it's only gotten worse since then!):



While private land goes up, public land fees barely budge.  Heck, in 2017, the fee was $1.87 per AUM (Animal Unit Month), and then in 2018 it's down to $1.41/AUM.

And yes, only Western states get this subsidy.

[roamer_1]

Leased at far below the market rate.  Compare private and public rates, and the costs to the federal government to administer these lands, and you see the subsidy.

Those lands would do nothing but lie fallow otherwise. And no one else is going to use it. You and the bunny-huggers seem to be the only ones who have a problem with it.

Hey, I got an idea, Howabout the feds give the land back to the states as the Constitution demands? Then Montana can deal with its open range as it sees fit. And you can stop thinking it is any of your business.

[montanajoe]

Those lands would do nothing but lie fallow otherwise. And no one else is going to use it. You and the bunny-huggers seem to be the only ones who have a problem with it.

Hey, I got an idea, Howabout the feds give the land back to the states as the Constitution demands? Then Montana can deal with its open range as it sees fit.....

Yep...

[jmyrlefuller]

And what does that do to the rancher, who bought the cow high, fed it for two years, expecting a return?

It gives that rancher an expensive lesson he should have learned in middle school: BUY LOW, SELL HIGH!