Thinking the unthinkable on a Second Civil War

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Mass psychosis has gripped a significant fraction of the progressive regressive elites in the wake of their shock at the election and presidency of Donald Trump.  The open embrace by California and some other jurisdictions of nullification – the doctrine that states can ignore or obstruct federal law – is recapitulating the run-up to our 19th-century Civil War.  Serious publications are taking seriously the possibility of an actual armed conflict.

The notion some on the left have that they would gain from such a conflict is insane on every level.  It would be a catastrophe of world historical dimensions, unleashing every bad actor in the world to enact its dream aggressions: China attacking Taiwan, Iran attacking Israel, and Russia restoring the old USSR borders, for starters.

But how about the question of who would win?  Kurt Schlichter on Town Hall takes a cold, hard look at the question and concludes (correctly) that the blue-staters would get their posteriors handed to them.  His article, titled "Why Democrats Would Lose the Second Civil War, Too," is must-reading, albeit unpleasant to contemplate.  I think he is highly realistic:



Do I think there will be a civil war?  No, but there could be.  This is the Age of Black Swans, and anything is possible – we could easily see the country split into red and blue.  Civil war is unlikely, but never underestimate Democrat stupidity and hatred.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/03/thinking_the_unthinkable_on_a_second_civil_war.html

Am ready for this one, as are most Americans.

[INVAR]

Leftists are imbeciles, this is known.  The wealthy and powerful that own industry, information, media and technology, rule the cities, and are of the mind that they can just buy their way to victory by empowering government to do their bidding - even if it's imposing despotism by arms, or insurgency by arms.

The unknown variable is whether or not the people in 'red states' are going to be willing to have empty shelves, no internet, a collapsed currency and endure a time of want and deprivation in such a conflict.  We know the blue state Leftists cannot and will not.  They lose their minds if the foam in their lattes is not correct.

However, money is what enables a war to be prosecuted.  Sadly Americans today from any state - are motivated by money and not by principles.

I think Americans will surrender most, if not everything for the empty promise of returning things to 'normal' as quickly as possible - by whatever means is needed to be employed, by punishing, eradicating and eliminating those that are blamed for the empty shelves and the lack of internet service.

My .02.

[TomSea]

More like when Ike and JFK sent the National Guard out.

[Free Vulcan]

A second civil war would require such a large liberal resurgence across the nation that, if they truly ever regained that support back at the ballot box, there would be no need for a civil war at that point.

Sure, you could have a despotic liberal President who could just ignore everything and strike out on their own to try and bring the country under the boot, but without major support from the other two branches, state, and local authorities that seems a short-lived fools errand.

Not that we have the money to do it anyway, and doing so would crash the economy, leading to financial collapse even faster. Even if it came as a result of a financial collapse, the FedGov would not have the resources to maintain martial law and troops everywhere for very long, and would become rather impotent at some point.

I'm more for thinking that DC is going to financially implode and the country fractures at some point, because the resulting power vacuum will demand it.

[INVAR]

I'm more for thinking that DC is going to financially implode and the country fractures at some point, because the resulting power vacuum will demand it.

I concur.

At some point, the consequences of breaking economic law and the TRILLIONS in deficit spending, is going to make the Dollar collapse as the confidence in it's fiat nature deteriorates once more and more people realize there is not enough wealth on the entire planet to cover the existing debt our government has run up.

That is when the fracturing begins in earnest as peoples are blamed and all the fear, anger and frustration is vented upon those the ensuing rage is targeted.

[LauraTXNM]

I concur.

At some point, the consequences of breaking economic law and the TRILLIONS in deficit spending, is going to make the Dollar collapse as the confidence in it's fiat nature deteriorates once more and more people realize there is not enough wealth on the entire planet to cover the existing debt our government has run up.

That is when the fracturing begins in earnest as peoples are blamed and all the fear, anger and frustration is vented upon those the ensuing rage is targeted.

I know people who voted for President Trump precisely BECAUSE they thought he would speed up the collapse.  They wanted to blow it all up and start fresh, and Trump was their surest way to get there.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

I concur.

At some point, the consequences of breaking economic law and the TRILLIONS in deficit spending, is going to make the Dollar collapse as the confidence in it's fiat nature deteriorates once more and more people realize there is not enough wealth on the entire planet to cover the existing debt our government has run up.

That is when the fracturing begins in earnest as peoples are blamed and all the fear, anger and frustration is vented upon those the ensuing rage is targeted.

But our debt is denominated in dollars, not wealth.  There's an infinite number of dollars available.

[Free Vulcan]

But our debt is denominated in dollars, not wealth.  There's an infinite number of dollars available.

But would anyone want those dollars in that situation, and would they have any value?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

What I would see is a constitutional crisis (a real one) and having the military take over. All bets would be off then.

[edpc]

In the first CW, the South had an army with better trained marksmen and horsemen.  The North had industry.  Thanks to their own policies, a Blue State coalition would have neither.

[INVAR]

But our debt is denominated in dollars, not wealth.  There's an infinite number of dollars available.

Yes.  Dollars grow on trees.





Let us pray there is no drought in our future.

[goatprairie]

In the first CW, the South had an army with better trained marksmen and horsemen.  The North had industry.  Thanks to their own policies, a Blue State coalition would have neither.

The North had plenty of people with firearms experiencee. The Iron Brigade was mostly made up of farmers from the Midwest.
The North had the industry and the manpower.  That prevailed in the end.

[goatprairie]

I've read a few columns by even some conservative columnists who talk about fighting the armed forces as well as liberals. Undoubtedly, which has been the case in just about every civil war in history, various factions of the military will take sides.
It's not like conservatives would be fighting the entire military.

[driftdiver]

But would anyone want those dollars in that situation, and would they have any value?

Oh I dunno let's ask the Wermacht

[Concerned]

I've seen no reason to believe there's going to be a second civil war.  Even the author of the piece linked in the OP said he didn't think there would be another one.

[edpc]

I've read a few columns by even some conservative columnists who talk about fighting the armed forces as well as liberals. Undoubtedly, which has been the case in just about every civil war in history, various factions of the military will take sides.
It's not like conservatives would be fighting the entire military.

They can have all the Wesley Clarks and Bradley Mannings they want.

[goatprairie]

I've seen no reason to believe there's going to be a second civil war.  Even the author of the piece linked in the OP said he didn't think there would be another one.

Neither do I.  There are nuts on both sides, but the great bulk of Americans have pretty much the same interests.

[INVAR]

Neither do I.  There are nuts on both sides, but the great bulk of Americans have pretty much the same interests.

Do we?

As time goes on, I am beginning to discover that is not the case at all.

Unless it's cable, beer, porn, unlimited internet access and pizza.

[Frank Cannon]

So the Left would be the South because they want to keep the flow of slaves going to clean their toilets and mow their lawns?

[WingNot]

I want a uniform.  What will it look like.  Something in Blue.  Blue is the new red.

[Free Vulcan]

I've read a few columns by even some conservative columnists who talk about fighting the armed forces as well as liberals. Undoubtedly, which has been the case in just about every civil war in history, various factions of the military will take sides.
It's not like conservatives would be fighting the entire military.

I can say this, even if we could round up a million highly motivated, highly trained troops, (highly unlikely) there'd be one for approximately 350 people. In my county of 35K for instance, that would translate to about 100 troops to cover just over 400 sq. miles. Very thin coverage.

And it would be horribly expensive. It would be devastating on the economy. Tax revenues would plunge. It would be a question of how long the govt could sustain such an action before no one would lend it money to continue. We have an expensive, hi-tech military that requires insane amounts of money to keep it supplied and it's toys operating.

My guess is 6 months tops, the after that DC would have so little funds to do anything the governors of the states would be in charge from there.

[Frank Cannon]

I want a uniform.  What will it look like.  Something in Blue.  Blue is the new red.

Here ya go.....

[WingNot]

Here ya go.....

ewe...   

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

But would anyone want those dollars in that situation, and would they have any value?

As far as paying off the debt, it really doesn't matter.

As far as rolling over and issuing new debt, I'm going with yes.  I don't say that because it makes one iota of sense to me, but if Argentina(!) can issue 100 year bonds and people will buy them???

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Yes.  Dollars grow on trees.

Let us pray there is no drought in our future.

There won't be.

Right now, there is a theoretical limit on the amount of dollars we can "print" because they have to be backed up by new debt.  If no one wants to buy our debt, no new dollars.

Fortunately, the rules are enforced by politicians and banksters, and we can trust them not to simply change the rules if there is a risk of their fix getting cut off.

"From time to time the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of patriots and central bankers"  -- Aaron Burr