A note of caution: The Atlanta Fed's tracker has shown to have reliability issues in the past. In particular, the model's sensitivity to the ISM manufacturing index has led the gauge astray multiple times, causing growth to be overstated. And note that the ISM numbers were the principle impetus for the raise in growth projections.
Since 2015, ISM boosts have caused the Atlanta Fed to overstate growth by 0.8 percentage point on average, including 1.9 percentage points in the fourth-quarter tracking on Nov. 1, according to CNBC calculations.
I will concede this, even if they overstate it by 1 percentage point, or even 1.5 percentage points, That would still be way above 3% growth!