BREAKING......US has launched dozens of tomahawks on Syria

[r9etb]

With Russia there, I doubt if anyone considers Syria so precious for a regime change that they'd want to upset Putin and all the possible ramifications, doesn't that make sense?

I'm not so sure about Libya and Gaddaffi, that's a different situation and maybe we should not have overthrown him.

But Russia just being in Syria makes that situation much more riskier, so what does common sense say?

The question is: is there a Syrian government without Assad?  If Assad is gone, does that make things better or worse?

The fact that the other side in this war is heavily jihadi-oriented has to be taken into account.

[bigheadfred]

With Russia there, I doubt if anyone considers Syria so precious for a regime change that they'd want to upset Putin and all the possible ramifications, doesn't that make sense?

I'm not so sure about Libya and Gaddaffi, that's a different situation and maybe we should not have overthrown him.

But Russia just being in Syria makes that situation much more riskier, so what does common sense say?

Tyrants like  Mopar Ghaddafi,  Sodom Hussein, and Basher Assad are the only way to control those people. When those rules decide it is time to perform slaughter in their countries I am good with that.

[EC]

70 miles just might be doable.

@EC
@r9etb

Depends on the accuracy at 70 miles. That's classified, of course, but since they're unpowered, terminal corrections are going to be pretty limited. 

[bigheadfred]

The question is: is there a Syrian government without Assad?  If Assad is gone, does that make things better or worse?

The fact that the other side in this war is heavily jihadi-oriented has to be taken into account.

Nation building/regime change was a fantastic success in Iraq. It mattereth not if ISIS is defeated. Another 20 groups are vying to take their place.

If not now, anything replacing Assad will be another puppet for Russia/Iran so why bother? A destabilized Syria keeps it from being a solid base for some of the factions most currently worrisome to Israel.

[DiogenesLamp]

I saw this comment on another website.

Al from da Nort on April 7, 2017 at 2:18 pm said:

As someone who has had responsibility for troop training for WMD defense during the Cold War (and hence some, thankfully theoretical, knowledge of the subject). this attack has a number of false flag indicators. None of these indicators is dispositive but they are also consistent with ISIS being behind a WMD attack on one single village, either genuine or simulated. Evidence:

– Some of the symptoms demonstrated on camera by the apparently tragically dying casualties are entirely consistent with the claimed Nerve Agent GB (aka Sarin) but are all voluntary nerve controlled (twitching & lolling head). GB is not a choking agent yet some appear to choke. And the involuntary nerve controlled symptoms that cannot be faked (e.g. complete pupil dilation and loss of urinary and bowel control) are not so evident in the footage, though this could happen shortly after filming stopped.

– The casualties are apparently all civilian, mostly children: No ‘fighter’ casualties are shown, in or out of uniform, though they might exist: So a not well-guarded target. We don’t know whose side, if any, the village was on: There are so many.

– The casualties are few in number (for a WMD attack) suggesting a single point release, if real, such as can be done any number of ways, some not requiring anything more technically complex than hand delivery, either surreptitious via delayed action bomb or overt via suicide bomber. No aircraft or artillery need be involved, thought they might be.

– Reports are that the attack began with a loud explosion in a bakery, consistent with any of the above. Yet high explosives are not used in WMD attack because they tend to burn up and over-scatter the agent (GB is actually a liquid with a deadly vapor stage, when concentrated). So only enough low-velocity explosive to break the munition casing is used. Everybody working on the ‘supply side’ knows this but ISIS may not.

– Agent GB is both highly toxic and persistent, usually for days, yet the responders and camera crew show no care for their own protection nor any knowledge of WMD response. They are wearing absorptive hoodies, not even a repellant painter’s suit, and no gloves or mask for some of them. Yet skin contact with a 3 – 5 mm drop of liquid GB is fatal: Or inhalation of the vapor from one. Their filmed decontamination efforts are useless at best, dangerous to both victims and responders. Two possibilities: They are extremely careless and stupid or purposeful frauds.

– The Islamists have a long history of creating fake atrocities for the ‘benefit’ of credulous Western reporters, particularly but not exclusively contra the Israeli’s during the many and various intifadas, particularly on the Syrian front, IIRC.

– Cui Bono_? Tillerson just said the other day that Assad’s leaving was not completely necessary. So he might be slipping off the hook. Then this attack happens right after. It doesn’t much help Assad but most benefits ISIS, who are clearly capable of poisoning a few dozens of (likely) hostile civilians for momentary advantage using the nerve agents they have claimed to possess. It divides their various enemies’ backers (US & Russia), induces injury to their near enemy who seems ascendent (Assad) and inspires fear in their other near enemies (the various other Sunni militias).

And, contra all points above, Assad really could be so stupid. A rogue act by a few subordinates is pretty unlikely since WMD storage and handling is dangerous and any storage bunkers are well guarded.

[r9etb]

Nation building/regime change was a fantastic success in Iraq. It mattereth not if ISIS is defeated. Another 20 groups are vying to take their place.

Actually, after the surge it was indeed a success... until Obama pissed it all away.

If not now, anything replacing Assad will be another puppet for Russia/Iran so why bother? A destabilized Syria keeps it from being a solid base for some of the factions most currently worrisome to Israel.

Actually, a destabilized Syria, like a destabilized Libya, or a destabilized Yemen, or a destabilized Iraq, is a great place for jihadi groups to take root. 

[DiogenesLamp]

Nation building/regime change was a fantastic success in Iraq. It mattereth not if ISIS is defeated. Another 20 groups are vying to take their place.

Time to pull out my favorite old David P. Goldman article. 

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2014/8/12/shermans-300000-and-the-caliphates-3-million/

This new Thirty Years War has its origins in a demographic peak and an economic trough. There are nearly 30 million young men aged 15 to 24 in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran, a bulge generation produced by pre-modern fertility rates that prevailed a generation ago. But the region's economies cannot support them. Syria does not have enough water to support an agricultural population, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of farmers into tent cities preceded its civil war. The West mistook the death spasms of a civilization for an "Arab Spring," and its blunders channeled the youth bulge into a regional war.

...

Three million men will have to die before the butchery comes to an end. That is roughly the number of men who have nothing to go back to, and will fight to the death rather than surrender.

[EC]

I saw this comment on another website.

Interesting, thanks.

Sarin is not persistant, however. It evaporates and disperses quickly, per the CDC. They rate it as an immediate but short lived threat in the open air, as does the MOD.

Author may be conflating Agent GB with Agent VX on that point? He does say it's been a while for him.

Still, it's an interesting take.

[Suppressed]

Only in the northeast. Mentioned before, Kurds won't fight outside what they consider their borders unless there is a very compelling reason. They're odd that way. It's rather nice, compared to the land grabbing of the other players in the area.

Yeah, if only more in the world were like that.

>cough, cough<

[INVAR]

I saw this comment on another website.

Al from da Nort on April 7, 2017 at 2:18 pm said:

As someone who has had responsibility for troop training for WMD defense during the Cold War (and hence some, thankfully theoretical, knowledge of the subject). this attack has a number of false flag indicators. None of these indicators is dispositive but they are also consistent with ISIS being behind a WMD attack on one single village, either genuine or simulated. Evidence:

– Some of the symptoms demonstrated on camera by the apparently tragically dying casualties are entirely consistent with the claimed Nerve Agent GB (aka Sarin) but are all voluntary nerve controlled (twitching & lolling head). GB is not a choking agent yet some appear to choke. And the involuntary nerve controlled symptoms that cannot be faked (e.g. complete pupil dilation and loss of urinary and bowel control) are not so evident in the footage, though this could happen shortly after filming stopped.

– The casualties are apparently all civilian, mostly children: No ‘fighter’ casualties are shown, in or out of uniform, though they might exist: So a not well-guarded target. We don’t know whose side, if any, the village was on: There are so many.

– The casualties are few in number (for a WMD attack) suggesting a single point release, if real, such as can be done any number of ways, some not requiring anything more technically complex than hand delivery, either surreptitious via delayed action bomb or overt via suicide bomber. No aircraft or artillery need be involved, thought they might be.

– Reports are that the attack began with a loud explosion in a bakery, consistent with any of the above. Yet high explosives are not used in WMD attack because they tend to burn up and over-scatter the agent (GB is actually a liquid with a deadly vapor stage, when concentrated). So only enough low-velocity explosive to break the munition casing is used. Everybody working on the ‘supply side’ knows this but ISIS may not.

– Agent GB is both highly toxic and persistent, usually for days, yet the responders and camera crew show no care for their own protection nor any knowledge of WMD response. They are wearing absorptive hoodies, not even a repellant painter’s suit, and no gloves or mask for some of them. Yet skin contact with a 3 – 5 mm drop of liquid GB is fatal: Or inhalation of the vapor from one. Their filmed decontamination efforts are useless at best, dangerous to both victims and responders. Two possibilities: They are extremely careless and stupid or purposeful frauds.

– The Islamists have a long history of creating fake atrocities for the ‘benefit’ of credulous Western reporters, particularly but not exclusively contra the Israeli’s during the many and various intifadas, particularly on the Syrian front, IIRC.

– Cui Bono_? Tillerson just said the other day that Assad’s leaving was not completely necessary. So he might be slipping off the hook. Then this attack happens right after. It doesn’t much help Assad but most benefits ISIS, who are clearly capable of poisoning a few dozens of (likely) hostile civilians for momentary advantage using the nerve agents they have claimed to possess. It divides their various enemies’ backers (US & Russia), induces injury to their near enemy who seems ascendent (Assad) and inspires fear in their other near enemies (the various other Sunni militias).

And, contra all points above, Assad really could be so stupid. A rogue act by a few subordinates is pretty unlikely since WMD storage and handling is dangerous and any storage bunkers are well guarded.

Pretty well sums up my discernment and concerns about this whole situation.  How would the responders know what kind of nerve agent was dispersed and how to dress in order to treat and film the survivors?  If in fact they knew it was sarin and not vx - that would explain the choice of safety attire.

The only beneficiary of a chemical gas attack on Syrians is ISIS/Caliphate.  Assad loses big time and not even Russia is going to risk standing by someone using WMDs on civvies.

But common sense no longer exists in this world.

[bigheadfred]

Actually, after the surge it was indeed a success... until Obama pissed it all away.

Actually, a destabilized Syria, like a destabilized Libya, or a destabilized Yemen, or a destabilized Iraq, is a great place for jihadi groups to take root.

Then let us destabilize Saudi Arabia.

[bigheadfred]

Actually, after the surge it was indeed a success... until Obama pissed it all away.

Actually, a destabilized Syria, like a destabilized Libya, or a destabilized Yemen, or a destabilized Iraq, is a great place for jihadi groups to take root.

Actually, it was that pissant Bush that is to blame. For the whole freaking mess. The only way to keep Iraq somewhat stable was to stable tens of thousands of troops there.  A brilliant proposition. Just think of the stories your great great grandchildren could tell of their deployment to Iraq.

[TomSea]

The question is: is there a Syrian government without Assad?  If Assad is gone, does that make things better or worse?

The fact that the other side in this war is heavily jihadi-oriented has to be taken into account.

That's more of an issue of two years ago.

Most sources say Assad is the biggest killer over there, most sources say refugees flee because of Assad.

[Cyber Liberty]

Then let us destabilize Saudi Arabia.

Why?  The Wasabi already run the place.

[TomSea]

Actually, it was that pissant Bush that is to blame. For the whole freaking mess. The only way to keep Iraq somewhat stable was to stable tens of thousands of troops there.  A brilliant proposition. Just think of the stories your great great grandchildren could tell of their deployment to Iraq.

Actually, if Assad, Iran and such actors had not obstructed the situation, Iraq may have turned out much better.

Bush almost expanded the war into Syria because the Jihadists operated from Syria, had camps there, planned attacks there. The same Jihadists that are now, for all intent, ISIS and AQ.

[bigheadfred]

Time to pull out my favorite old David P. Goldman article. 

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2014/8/12/shermans-300000-and-the-caliphates-3-million/


...

"Tragic" as it sounds the demise of 300 million of them wouldn't give me pause.  Importing any of them here does.

[bigheadfred]

Actually, if Assad, Iran and such actors had not obstructed the situation, Iraq may have turned out much better.

Bush almost expanded the war into Syria because the Jihadists operated from Syria, had camps there, planned attacks there. The same Jihadists that are now, for all intent, ISIS and AQ.

Same ting as Cambodia.

Iraq would never have been a success. Those people hate each other too much. Yesterday, today, and tomorrow. All of our fixes will fail with people like that.

[bigheadfred]

Actually, a destabilized Syria, like a destabilized Libya, or a destabilized Yemen, or a destabilized Iraq, is a great place for jihadi groups to take root.

What I mean is Hezbollah is helping Assad instead of the other way around. A strong Syria may mean a stronger Hezbollah. Maybe not.

A destabilized Saudi Arabia throws a monkey wrench in their ability to fund as much terrorism as they do, @Cyber Liberty.

Destabilize the whole damn place. Be a great excuse to turn them all to glass. And then we can fight it out with whoever for the oil. Since oil is the only reason we are even dicking around with these people. Look at the mass murder going on in Africa. The whole damn world is silent as MILLIONS there are/have been slaughtered.

[ABX]

Important info if you haven't seen it yet.
http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,257562.0.html

[Cripplecreek]

Important info if you haven't seen it yet.
http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,257562.0.html

I use tineye for reverse photo searches. Lots of fake pics being used.

https://tineye.com/

[ABX]

Regarding earlier discussion on how they were able to use the runway so soon after, this supposedly shows areas of missile impacts. It looks like they missed most of the runways.

[bigheadfred]

http://www.livescience.com/58603-how-tomahawk-missiles-work.html
Syria Bombing: How Do Tomahawk Missiles Work?
By Tia Ghose, Senior Writer | April 7, 2017 04:23pm ET

 Sophisticated navigation

To navigate, the missiles use a combination of digital scene matching and global positioning system (GPS) to pinpoint their targets with better accuracy. Digital scene matching takes images captured by the missile while in flight toward its target and matches them to images taken prior to the flight, during mission planning, according to a 1994 paper describing digital scene matching from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, which helped design the system. Another aspect of the system's navigation is a tool called terrain contour matching. This system compares images from a previously acquired contour map and compares them with measurements that a radar altimeter makes on board the missile. Based on input for the terrain-matching algorithm, the system can update its inertial navigation system — a set of sensors, such as accelerometers and gyroscopes to measure rotation — to reorient itself.

Tomahawk missiles can also make real-time updates to their position.

"The missile is sending constant emails back to the controlling agency; then the controlling agency can send updated guidance via essentially a data email back to the missile," Harmer said.

[LonestarDream]

Depends on the accuracy at 70 miles. That's classified, of course, but since they're unpowered, terminal corrections are going to be pretty limited. 

Apropos to our discussion. 


With advanced Russian aircraft and air defense systems present, there was absolutely no way America was going to deliver the type of ordnance required to put those runways out of service. JDAM bomb-equipped B-2 stealth bombers—of which the U.S. has only 20, and with “stealth” technology that might not actually be so stealthy anymore—would be an expensive and risky proposition to send in against the latest and greatest Russian air defense systems, especially if the intent were to actually knock the airfield out of commission and actually make a tangible statement. (And in that case, it would, unlike the Tomahawk strike.)

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/why-firing-tomahawk-missiles-at-syria-was-a-nearly-usel-1794113103

[LonestarDream]

Regarding earlier discussion on how they were able to use the runway so soon after, this supposedly shows areas of missile impacts. It looks like they missed most of the runways.

There not likely aiming for the runways.

[EC]

Apropos to our discussion. 


With advanced Russian aircraft and air defense systems present, there was absolutely no way America was going to deliver the type of ordnance required to put those runways out of service. JDAM bomb-equipped B-2 stealth bombers—of which the U.S. has only 20, and with “stealth” technology that might not actually be so stealthy anymore—would be an expensive and risky proposition to send in against the latest and greatest Russian air defense systems, especially if the intent were to actually knock the airfield out of commission and actually make a tangible statement. (And in that case, it would, unlike the Tomahawk strike.)

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/why-firing-tomahawk-missiles-at-syria-was-a-nearly-usel-1794113103

  Thank you, Sir. I appreciate the follow-up on this.

It makes sense - was leery of the stand off range anyways (I do know the effective range of the S-400 defence system: it's pretty impressive, assuming everything works.) Didn't realize the US was so short on B-2s though. Tend not to worry too much about allied stuff unless some's been jacked by the scum.