SOURCE:
FORBESURL:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasdelbeccaro/2016/10/05/what-if-hillary-wins-trump-my-predictions-about-2017-beyond/#42c87c5b2c9aby: Thomas Del Beccaro
The election is just weeks away. The candidates have staked out their positions more or less. Everyone knows, however, that there is a wide gap between promises and performance. There is also the reality that any president has to deal with Congress and world events.
Its was once said that “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Maybe so, but given this article is about politics, perhaps Eric Hoffer’s quote is more apt: “The only way to predict the future is to have power to shape the future.” That is what elections are about.
Here are my predictions about what some of the next 4 years will be like – depending on who wins.
Prediction #1. The House and Senate stay in the hands of Republicans this November. The nature of our current divisions in this Divided Era, including the red state/blue state divide, gerrymandering and the benefits of incumbency, along with the fact that even if Hillary won, she will not have coattails, means that the House and Senate stay in the hands of Republicans.
Prediction #2 – If Hillary wins . . .
Hillary, as I have written before, is more ideological and has less governing experience than Bill Clinton – she is more like Obama than Bill. Give her credit, she is not shy about her plans if she wins. She wants higher taxes and more spending. On foreign policy, people claim she is more of a hawk than Obama – but the reality of that is not so clear and likely won’t play out initially for her in 2017 because she will want to concentrate on domestic policy – UNLESS there is a foreign policy crisis.
Continued Gridlock. Our Founders actually wanted gridlock. They didn’t want government progressing too quickly in one direction or another.
If the House remains in the hands of Republicans, Washington D.C. will still be a place of intense gridlock. Hillary, like Obama when he was elected, has never governed nor built a coalition. That is a special skill – and quite needed in this Divided Era. Remember that Obama has no legislative victories of significance since the 2nd year of his presidency when the House went Republican. Don’t look for that dynamic to change under Hillary. As such, look for Hillary to “govern” like Obama’s last 6 years – through regulations, executive orders and a compliant Supreme Court.
Healthcare or Immigration? What will be Hillary’s first big push? If Hillary tries to deal with a mega issue like healthcare or immigration right out of the gate (it won’t be tax reform), she could get a big victory if Republicans play ball or she could ground her presidency to a halt in a battle royal. Even if she does get a deal, it is unlikely she would get many more.
Prediction: A healthcare deal is struck given the implosion of Obamacare. Something has to be done. It is also likely that the Republican base will not be happy about it.
Before you decry that gridlock, keep in mind the one-term presidency of John Adams, our second president, had far worse invective and turmoil than our last 16 years combined. After the Aliens and Sedition Act (which outlawed dissent and was used to jail newspaper owners and politicians), Jefferson actually worried the end of our new system of government was at hand – and he was likely far more serious about his views than you are of yours.
Bottom Line: More Gridlock.
The Economy.Today, the spending of our state and local governments is 37% of the economy. Our spending in response to regulations and government mandates exceeds 12% of the economy. In other words, half our economy is either government spending or our reaction to it. That is draining the private sector and therefore wilting our national economy. That didn’t happen over night. 50+ years of spending growth by both parties is to blame. That is why our 50-year growth rate slide is occurring.
The only way to change that dynamic is to either
(1) shrink the government sector or (2) grow the private sector.Under a Hillary presidency, neither will occur. Republicans over the last 8 years have not reformed any major government program. Would they do so under Hillary?
Easy prediction: our governments will spend more 4 years from now than they do today and we will have more regulations – and that will weaken the economy and long term growth even further.
Will the private sector grow? Easy prediction – not much faster than it is today. It is doubtful meaningful tax reform will pass. Hillary is committed to the same environmental agenda as Obama and the EPA will be just as empowered.
Bottom line: The government sector will not be getting smaller under Hillary and therefore look for weak economic growth much like we have had the last 8 years.
The Stock Market. John Tamny is fond of saying that the stock market likes Washington gridlock. He is probably right. My Prediction: Overall, if Hillary wins, the economy will likely be in the same shape it is today (weak growth), Fed policies will likely be close to where they are now (in response to the weak growth), and therefore, the stock market likely will drift higher.
Cold War Aftermath. It was always going to be true, that a post Cold War world would present more varied challenges than before the Cold War ended. Also, the magnitude of the problems in the Middle East were brought on, in part by our ridiculous domestic energy policy over the last 50 years, which enriched our enemies or those funding them. No next president will have an easy solution to those challenges.
As for Hillary, it is not likely she will want to make foreign policy her priority. She wants to change America not the world. Domestic oriented presidents attempt to make their mark and use their political capital on domestic issues first and hope foreign policy does not get in their way. As a result:
Under Hillary, we would be lucky if the Middle East was roughly the same as it is now. It likely will be significantly worse as Iran grows bolder.
ISIS will likely be close to the same if not larger and concentrate more on branching out so as to not be in one place and therefore present a single target. Sadly, Hillary’s lack of emphasis on foreign affairs in the end will lead to more terrorism long-term.
Russia will be no less bold than today, because frankly they have no reason to change. The US is not presenting an aggressive military challenge to them (that is a factual assessment not partisan) and the US is not presenting an economic challenge either. Remember, it was the economic challenge that won the Cold war. If we are not intent on undermining their ability to project power by reducing the power of their economy by unleashing our own economy – especially the energy sector, then Russia will remain in the same place it is today if not be more provocative.
The Supreme Court. It depends, does it not? If Hillary wins, Republicans may well approve of Obama’s standing pick or maybe Obama withdraws the pick knowing Hillary would pick an even more liberal justice? Hillary’s next pick would then cement what I call the Era of Social Justices, i.e. a Supreme Court driven less by the Constitution and more by a desire to right the societal wrongs they perceive.
Social Tension. If history teaches us anything, economic opportunity and social tension are opposite ends of a seesaw. When the former falls, the latter rises. Economic opportunity will not rise significantly under Hillary and therefore we are left with the same dynamic we have today – only worse because it will have dragged on for 4 more years.
Beyond that, Hillary said in her first debate that she believes “we all” have a problem with “implicit bias.” She will push that agenda and fans the flames of social discord for political reasons. There is no reason to believe, that Hillary Clinton as president won’t be like Obama on this issue.
Bottom line: Our social fabric will continue to fray.
Prediction #3. If Trump Wins.Gridlock Eases – for better or for worse. If Trump wins, the House and the Senate will definitely be in Republican hands. The Senate Republicans, however, won’t have a filibuster proof majority. Yes, if Trump wins, more legislation will emerge out of the Senate (it already has since Republicans took over). The question is whether that will result in government reform or just more spending. Initially, Trump will rely far less on executive actions as well (other than repealing many of Obama’s orders). Also, look for VP Mike Pence to shoulder significant duties and make the president’s domestic agenda run smoother. Trump, if anything, is a delegator.
The Economy: There is a real difference between Trump and Hillary on the economy. Trump will push for tax reform and will push for regulatory reform. The amount he gets depends on whether he is willing to build a national coalition around the need for it after he wins. Those will be his first acts. The economy will do better than it is now if those reforms are passed and the private sector will grow at a greater rate than it is now. That means the public sector will likely shrink below those 37%/12% marks and the lower it gets the better the long-term growth prospects. This is one area where the results will be rather different. On the other hand, if Trump leads with a trade war that divides the nation and will hurt the economy, he could ground his presidency to a near halt from day one and jeopardize the Republicans 2018 Midterm prospects. As for the stock market, broad based growth could lead to less market growth because investment money will find more places to get returns than just the market.
Foreign Policy. Trump would make foreign policy more of a priority than Hillary. He will push to eliminate ISIS. That will result in greater tension internationally in the short-term. But if he is successful, it is much better in the long-term. The question becomes how does the World deal with a dispersed ISIS. The greatest challenge facing a Trump presidency will be how to build a world-wide coalition on that issue and how to do the same to deal with an emboldened Iran.
It is possible under Trump that our relationship with Russia could be reset – something Obama/Hillary tried to do. However, Russia doesn’t reset things with weak partners. It respects and responds to power not words. It is also very possible that Russia continues its current path given that ISIS and Iran present the greatest acute challenges to us. Keep in mind that Russia acts more rationally based on power and ISIS and Iran operate on more fanatical grounds to say the least.
The Supreme Court. Despite the worries, the reality is patently true that Trump is now concerned with the nature of the Supreme Court like he never was before. Of all the lasting impacts and differences between the two candidates, this will be the largest. Trump would likely get 3 picks and steer the Court slightly away from the last 3 Obama picks.
Social Tension. Economic opportunity likely will be greater under a Trump presidency. So will the emphasis on law and order. For the reasons stated above, a Trump presidency offers the opportunity to ease the current level of tension.
Bonus comment on Temperament. Much has been made of the temperament of the two candidates. Let’s be clear, BOTH have issues. Donald is not as disciplined as many would like. But the first six letters of the word temperament is temper – and Hillary has a volatile and explosive temper – just ask the Secret Service.
The Midterm Elections of 2018. Government debt will be higher in two years than it is today. Social Security and Medicare obligations will be higher in two years than today. Our defense costs will be higher in two years than today. The need for government reform will be higher two years than today. If Hillary wins, and if the Republicans start to propose real reforms to programs, they can retain the House/Senate in the 2018 Midterms if not increase their numbers. If they do not, voters may tire of their promises and heed Hillary’s call to end gridlock. If Trump wins, and tax and regulatory reforms are passed, Republicans will increase their numbers because the economy will be better than today. If spending goes up too much, however, those increases could be limited.
As for this election, I look at it this way: Trump has a long history of delegating authority to those best able to do certain tasks. Hillary does not. Hillary will not be able to court Congress because it is her way or the highway. Trump has Pence. This isn't saying much, but Donald therefore trumps Hillary.
