http://washingtonexaminer.com/what-ted-cruz-would-be-risking-by-running-for-president-in-2016/article/2554119?utm_campaign=Washington%20Examiner:%20Opinion%20Digest&utm_source=Washington%20Examiner:%20Opinion%20Digest%20-%2009/30/14&utm_medium=emailWhat Ted Cruz would be risking by running for president in 2016
By Philip Klein | September 29, 2014 | 4:56 pm
With his frequent trips to the early primary states and recent staff changes, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tex., is looking increasingly like somebody intending to run for president in 2016 — and it's easy to see why he would be tempted to do so.
The next Republican race is going to be wide open, with no clear frontrunner, and the limited polling that exists on 2016 suggests Cruz would be starting out right in the mix with other candidates. If he declines to run and a Republican goes on to win the presidency, the earliest he'd be able to try would likely be in 2024 — and by that point, he could have to contend with whoever served as vice president for eight years.
If Cruz jumps into the race next year, he'd be doing so at a time when he's still viewed as a rock star among many conservatives. But if he has to wait 4, 8, or 12 years, a lot could change. He could start to look old and entrenched, part of the institution of Washington. His star could fade, and somebody else could rise up to replace him in the hearts of conservative activists. Were he to run in 2016, Cruz would have the same level of Senate experience as Barack Obama did in 2008, and Obama's victory validated the strategy of striking while the iron's hot.
Cruz may be thinking to himself, "If Obama could do it, why can't I?"
Though running for president in 2016 represents an opportunity for Cruz, it also represents a potentially huge risk, because a run could undermine his long-term effectiveness as a Senator. Cruz is a focal point of the effort to make sure there's a critical mass of conservatives in the Senate pushing the agenda to the right. If a Republican is elected president in 2016, conservatives will still need strong conservative leadership from within Congress.
If Cruz runs and his candidacy flames out, it could hinder this goal. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is an example of somebody whose profile shrank substantially due to an unsuccessful presidential run. Right now, a lot of Cruz's power rests in the fact that he has the ability to rally masses of conservative activists around his cause. But if he runs for the GOP presidential nomination and does poorly, his Republican establishment adversaries could conclude that his support is a mile deep but an inch wide, thus he can be easily ignored. That would deal a greater blow to his ability to advance a conservative agenda than if he declined to run and instead exerted influence from the outside.
(Note: I am aware that Cruz wrote a Facebook post to tamp down the rumors about his presidential ambitions, but it's a pretty good rule of thumb to dismiss what politicians say about their intentions, one way or another. Cruz said that he and his wife, "have not made any decisions about political plans past the mid-term elections." But not having made any decisions about a presidential run is a lot different from having decided against running for president.)
