Author Topic: Report: It’s YOUR Fault: Fed Says Americans Who “Hoard Money” Are To Blame For Poor Economy  (Read 5272 times)

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Report: It’s YOUR Fault: Fed Says Americans Who “Hoard Money” Are To Blame For Poor Economy

Posted By Mac Slavo On September 7, 2014 @ 9:30 pm In Economy and Finance,Editor's Choice,Featured | No Comments


hoarding-money [1]

Despite arguments to the contrary from the Obama administration, mounting evidence suggests that the U.S. economy is rapidly falling [2] back into negative growth territory. More Americans are out of the workforce than ever before, median household incomes are at levels not seen since 1967 [3], and consumer spending is coming to a veritable standstill. The crisis is apparently so significant that a Federal Reserve governor recently said U.S. policymakers are crafting regulations that will force bank depositors to cover any losses [4] should their financial institutions fail.

The question that many are asking is, how did this happen? How, after six years of recovery efforts and trillions of dollars printed, is it possible that the economy is not booming again?

This week the Federal Reserve published a report that claims to have figured it out and it turns out that the renewed economic downturn has nothing to do with foreign outsourcing, high taxation, increased health care costs for business or rising consumer prices for food and energy.

No, according to the Fed it is your fault. Apparently, you are not spending enough money. In order for the economy to recover you need to stop hoarding cash now and get out there and start buying more homes, cars, vacations, and electronics. Otherwise, you’ll only have yourself to blame when the system comes unhinged.

From the St. Louis Federal Reserve [5]:


The issue has to do with the velocity of money, which has never been constant, as can be seen in the figure below . If for some reason the money velocity declines rapidly during an expansionary monetary policy period, it can offset the increase in money supply and even lead to deflation instead of inflation.



During the first and second quarters of 2014, the velocity of the monetary base2 was at 4.4, its slowest pace on record. This means that every dollar in the monetary base was spent only 4.4 times in the economy during the past year, down from 17.2 just prior to the recession. This implies that the unprecedented monetary base increase driven by the Fed’s large money injections through its large-scale asset purchase programs has failed to cause at least a one-for-one proportional increase in nominal GDP. Thus, it is precisely the sharp decline in velocity that has offset the sharp increase in money supply, leading to the almost no change in nominal GDP



So why did the monetary base increase not cause a proportionate increase in either the general price level or GDP?

The answer lies in the private sector’s dramatic increase in their willingness to hoard money instead of spend it. Such an unprecedented increase in money demand has slowed down the velocity of money

Top tier economists, it seems, are unable grasp why consumers have decided to hoard – in other words, save – their money even though the central bank is engaged in an unprecedented monetary expansion.

The answer is simple, really, and you don’t need to look at detailed government charts and statistics to figure it out.

American consumers have been absolutely pummeled over the last decade.

We are losing so many jobs that newly created minimum wage jobs touted by the Obama administration aren’t even making a dent.

Moreover, the price of food, electricity, gas and other essentials have risen so sharply that we’re paying nearly double for those items today than we did a decade ago.

And, as recently noted by The Economic Collapse Blog [6], over 77 million Americans currently have debt collection accounts and 25% of Americans have absolutely no emergency cash whatsoever.

It’s not so much that Americans are “hoarding” money, a phrase that suggests greedy people all over the country are stacking piles of cash under their mattresses. It’s that most Americans don’t have any money left to spend.

The Daily Bell [7] says that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government are now creating a new narrative to be spewed by their mainstream media propaganda arms, wherein the blame for this will fall squarely on the American people:


Sometimes Federal Reserve white papers attract attention and this one does because of the term “hoarding money.” This is a startling phrase and – who knows – perhaps it marks the beginning of a new meme.

Certainly the word “hoarding” is a popular one with government officials. When governments are uncomfortable with the actions of citizens for whatever reason, the term “hoarding” is often applied to stigmatize certain behaviors and encourage others.

This isn’t the first time government officials and their quasi-government counterparts have targeted “hoarders” as evil doers. They have done it before and the evidence suggests they are going to do it again as soon as the right crisis takes hold.

In 2012 President Obama signed a an Executive Doomsday Order [8] that was designed specifically to target “hoarders” during a national emergency:


While millions of people have been preparing [9] for the possibility of a catastrophic event by relocating to rural homesteads or farms, as well as stockpiling food, water, personal defense armaments and other essential supplies, with the intention of utilizing these preparations if the worst happens, the latest executive order signed by President Obama on March 16, 2012 makes clear that in the event of a nationally deemed emergency all of these resources will fall under the authority of the United States government.

The signing of the National Defense Resources Preparedness executive order [10] grants the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Labor, the Department of Defense and other agencies complete control of all US resources, including the ability to seize, confiscate or re-delegate resources, materials, services, and facilities as deemed necessary or appropriate to promote the national defense as delegated by the following agencies

But what is hoarding? According to David Spero of Code Green Prep [11], it’s whatever they say it is. Right now, tens of millions of Americans are unable to put food on the table or pay their most basic expenses, yet the Federal Reserve claims that we’re hoarding money. In an emergency, they’ll make similar claims.


Hoarding of Just About Anything Can Be Banned





These definitions are written in to the 1950 War and National Defense (sic) Production Act, and so let’s see what the act itself has to say for itself.


Go directly to section 2072 [12].  That’s the key part from our perspective.


§2072. Hoarding of designated scarce materials

In order to prevent hoarding, no person shall accumulate (1) in excess of the reasonable demands of business, personal, or home consumption, or (2) for the purpose of resale at prices in excess of prevailing market prices, materials which have been designated by the President scarce materials or materials the supply of which would be threatened by such accumulation. The President shall order published in the Federal Register, and in such other manner as he may deem appropriate, every designation of materials the accumulation of which is unlawful and any withdrawal of such designation.

So the President can simply say that anything more than (for example) a week’s supply of food (and all the other things listed) is an amount ‘in excess of the reasonable demands of personal consumption’ and then order the Army to impound everything you have in excess of that amount.


Now, as we face a crisis in America on a scale never before seen, the government is attempting to change the story. In the end, when the worst of it hits and people start rioting in the streets because they can’t afford food or shelter, they’ll turn the blame on the “hoarders” who have selfishly saved cash and precious metals, stored long-term foods for an emergency, and prepared to deal with [13] the very situation the politicians, central bankers and business elite have created.


Once the meme is pushed in earnest across the media networks, it will only be a matter of time before the crowds turn their attention to those greedy hoarders who ’caused this crisis in the first place.’


Those who hoard resources illegally will have their supplies seized and will likely be detained for actions akin to terrorism, while those who see something and say something will be rewarded with a cut of the booty.


This may sound outlandish, until you consider that this is how all tyrants and authoritarian governments have operated since the beginning of human civilization.


Hoarders beware. They’ll be coming for you.

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Delivered by The Daily Sheeple [14]


Contributed by Mac Slavo of www.SHTFplan.com [15].

When it hits the fan, don’t say we didn’t warn you. Mac Slavo is the editor of SHTFplan.com [15], a resource hub for alternative news, contrarian commentary and strategies that you can take to protect yourself from the coming global paradigm shift.


Article printed from The Daily Sheeple: http://www.thedailysheeple.com

URL to article: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/report-its-your-fault-fed-says-americans-who-hoard-money-are-to-blame-for-poor-economy_092014

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/report-its-your-fault-fed-says-americans-who-hoard-money-are-to-blame-for-poor-economy_092014/hoarding-money

[2] rapidly falling: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/economist-this-is-far-from-over-they-know-there-is-a-problem-coming_09032014

[3] not seen since 1967: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/the-recession-is-coming-economist-warns-its-beyond-control-i-dont-see-what-will-save-it-at-this-point_05222014

[4] bank depositors to cover any losses: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/fed-vice-chairman-warns-your-bank-may-seize-your-money-to-recapitalize-itself_08272014

[5] St. Louis Federal Reserve: http://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/what-does-money-velocity-tell-us-about-low-inflation-in-the-u-s/

[6] The Economic Collapse Blog: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/21-ways-to-end-the-phrase-americans-are-so-broke_072014

[7] The Daily Bell: http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/35616/Hoarding-Money-A-New-Meme/

[8] Executive Doomsday Order: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/executive-doomsday-order-obama-authorizes-gov-to-seize-farms-food-processing-plants-energy-resources-transportation-skilled-laborers-during-national-emergency_03182012

[9] millions of people have been preparing: http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/doomsday-report-three-million-preppers-in-america-are-getting-for-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it_02112012

[10] National Defense Resources Preparedness executive order: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/03/16/executive-order-national-defense-resources-preparedness

[11] Code Green Prep: http://codegreenprep.com/2013/06/preppers-beware-our-hoarding-can-be-deemed-illegal/

[12] section 2072: http://law.justia.com/codes/us/2010/title50/app/defensepr/sec2072/

[13] prepared to deal with: http://amzn.to/TwaloQ

[14] The Daily Sheeple: http://www.TheDailySheeple.com/

[15] www.SHTFplan.com: http://www.SHTFplan.com



Offline Relic

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See: Jimmy Carter, malaise.

Offline GourmetDan

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When the banks start failing, it will be known as 'bail-in' as opposed to 'bail-out'.  Bail-in means that depositor cash (which is technically debt) is turned into marginally marketable bank shares.  Usually with a haircut.

It was tested in Cyprus and is official EU bank policy since the Spanish debt crisis.

It will likely make an appearance in the U.S. as well...


"The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left." - Ecclesiastes 10:2

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Offline MACVSOG68

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When the banks start failing, it will be known as 'bail-in' as opposed to 'bail-out'.  Bail-in means that depositor cash (which is technically debt) is turned into marginally marketable bank shares.  Usually with a haircut.

It was tested in Cyprus and is official EU bank policy since the Spanish debt crisis.

It will likely make an appearance in the U.S. as well...

Sounds like it's best to keep deposits below the guarantee threshold. 
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Offline GourmetDan

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Sounds like it's best to keep deposits below the guarantee threshold.

Depends on how much you trust the banks and the government...


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Offline MACVSOG68

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Depends on how much you trust the banks and the government...

Don't trust the banks, but if the government fails, where do you go to buy milk and bread, and what do you use to pay for it?
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Offline alicewonders

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Don't trust the banks, but if the government fails, where do you go to buy milk and bread, and what do you use to pay for it?

My guess is that at that point, the government will step in and start distributing food and other necessities, because no one will have currency to buy them.  We all know where it goes from there. 

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Offline GourmetDan

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Don't trust the banks, but if the government fails, where do you go to buy milk and bread, and what do you use to pay for it?

If it gets that far, that's a different set of problems.

The point was that your reliance on the 'guarantee threshold' might not hold.

It's a long way from the guarantee threshold failing to an actual government failure, IMO...


"The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left." - Ecclesiastes 10:2

"The sole purpose of the Republican Party is to serve as an ineffective alternative to the Democrat Party." - GourmetDan

Oceander

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Don't trust the banks, but if the government fails, where do you go to buy milk and bread, and what do you use to pay for it?

It's not so much a matter of finding where to buy milk and bread as much as it is a question of what do you use to pay for it.  Absent some widely accepted medium of exchange, buying/selling drops back to barter.  Tobacco used to be, and still is in some places, one of the more stable currencies of exchange.

Offline MACVSOG68

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If it gets that far, that's a different set of problems.

The point was that your reliance on the 'guarantee threshold' might not hold.

It's a long way from the guarantee threshold failing to an actual government failure, IMO...

I'm not sure it's that far at all.  The FDIC is guaranteeing $5.4 trillion in deposits; and then there's the federal credit union deposit guarantees.  If that fails and the government can't pay the guarantees, what do most people do for money?
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Offline MACVSOG68

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It's not so much a matter of finding where to buy milk and bread as much as it is a question of what do you use to pay for it.  Absent some widely accepted medium of exchange, buying/selling drops back to barter.  Tobacco used to be, and still is in some places, one of the more stable currencies of exchange.

I have a neighbor who has a very large gun and ammo collection, as well as gold and silver.  He believes those will be the exchange mechanisms.  But the grocery stores have to have stock.  Where does it come from, and how do they make change?  The real nightmare scenario.
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Offline GourmetDan

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I'm not sure it's that far at all.

OK... so I think it's a long way from a guarantee threshold failure to a government failure and you don't...    :shrug:


« Last Edit: September 08, 2014, 11:44:07 am by GourmetDan »
"The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left." - Ecclesiastes 10:2

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Offline MACVSOG68

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OK... so I think it's a long way from a guarantee threshold failure to a government failure and you don't...    :shrug:

Of course you left out the reason why...
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Offline GourmetDan

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Of course you left out the reason why...

Apparently congratulations are in order...

 :hands:


"The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left." - Ecclesiastes 10:2

"The sole purpose of the Republican Party is to serve as an ineffective alternative to the Democrat Party." - GourmetDan

Oceander

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I have a neighbor who has a very large gun and ammo collection, as well as gold and silver.  He believes those will be the exchange mechanisms.  But the grocery stores have to have stock.  Where does it come from, and how do they make change?  The real nightmare scenario.

I'll grant the issues of getting stock to market, although that can be a problem whether or not government fails - a natural disaster of sufficient size can result in empty shelves.  In smaller towns and villages that are more directly connected to farms and the like, the supply issue is likely to be less of a problem (ceteris paribus - i.e., so long as gangs of the starving from places like NYC don't arrive there first).

As far as media of exchange go, I'm not sure if guns, ammo, gold, or silver are likely to be that attractive to the local green-grocer - or the farmer with whom the grocer trades.  Gold or silver can become dangerous if word gets out that a merchant accepts those items as the "bad guys" are likely to assume that the merchant has a comparatively large supply and therefore will target his/her store and home.  Ammunition would also be problematic because of all the different calibers out there - if all you have are 22LRs, how do you make change for three .45s if the buyer doesn't have a 22LR at home?  Storing it can also become problematic.  Finally, the "bad guys" are likely to be attracted to what they view as a lightly guarded arsenal as they are to a merchant with gold and/or silver on site.

My better guess is that we would quickly - assuming that a new status quo developed at the barter level - go back to what we did for much of the early part of this country in rural areas:  negotiable IOUs.  A system like that relies primarily on personal trust, both between the exchangors, and within the local community, that the issuer of a given IOU will be good for it when called on it.  If a bartering economy became more developed, one might see "banks" after a fashion springing up that would in effect act as exchanges where one could "promise" or "pledge" one's goods and/or services (certain services can be fungible if backed by reliable paper), in exchange for private bank notes from that bank.  The notes could then be used as a medium of exchange within the local community.  At that point, gold and silver would probably start to come back into play, but they would quickly end up being assets used to back up a bank's private notes, they wouldn't be used directly for exchange.

Offline EC

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Don't forget, you can exchange goods for services, as well.
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Oceander

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Don't forget, you can exchange goods for services, as well.

Didn't forget it at all.  But accepting services as payment - particularly services to be performed in the future - requires a little higher degree of trust than accepting goods in kind.  That is where an "IOU" type economy might be useful; if I can pledge to provide a certain type of service, and get unit notes that I can then use to exchange my future services for goods today, then exchanging services for goods becomes more doable.

Offline EC

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I agree on a much higher level of trust being needed, but I do like the note system. It's a bit less cumbersome than direct swaps at the time.

In time, you'd even have denominations. Someone who can keep your car going (for a bad example) or who can be relied upon to come out day or night to tend to the sick is going to be worth "more" than someone who milks the cows. I can see it, in small communities bringing back the practice of shunning though, for constant trust breakers.
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Offline alicewonders

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I agree on a much higher level of trust being needed, but I do like the note system. It's a bit less cumbersome than direct swaps at the time.

In time, you'd even have denominations. Someone who can keep your car going (for a bad example) or who can be relied upon to come out day or night to tend to the sick is going to be worth "more" than someone who milks the cows. I can see it, in small communities bringing back the practice of shunning though, for constant trust breakers.
 

I have a friend that grew up in Alabama in the sixties.  His father was a doctor, and it was rather normal that he got paid in chicken and stuff from his patient's farms.  He did house calls too!
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Oceander

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I have a friend that grew up in Alabama in the sixties.  His father was a doctor, and it was rather normal that he got paid in chicken and stuff from his patient's farms.  He did house calls too!

That's the way it used to work in a lot of small towns (and small economies).  It's also the way things worked in rural communities, where farmers could go 11 months without getting paid for their crops:  until they got hard currency for their goods they needed some sort of way to pay for their daily expenses, and it was usually either barter or some sort of informal scrip or negotiable paper system.  That's actually part of what led to the Constitutional Convention:  small rural states often gave into the pressure from farmers and issued scrip money that, in the end, they usually tried to cram down the throats of out-of-state lenders, who had lent in hard currency (gold/silver) and expected to get paid back in same; the farmers' inability to do so often led to nasty farm foreclosures and auctions, with ensuing violence.

Oceander

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I agree on a much higher level of trust being needed, but I do like the note system. It's a bit less cumbersome than direct swaps at the time.

In time, you'd even have denominations. Someone who can keep your car going (for a bad example) or who can be relied upon to come out day or night to tend to the sick is going to be worth "more" than someone who milks the cows. I can see it, in small communities bringing back the practice of shunning though, for constant trust breakers.


That is, to a degree, how many small, isolated economies end up working.  Many of the colonial era economies in the rural states operated that way de facto since the farmers didn't get hard currency, if at all, until they sold their crops and since the local economies revolved around the farmers, the rest of the economy went without hard currency as well.

Offline MACVSOG68

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Apparently congratulations are in order...

 :hands:

Well...I hate to be modest...
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Offline GourmetDan

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Well...I hate to be modest...

Yes... I know that...    :silly:


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Offline MACVSOG68

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Good discussion Oceander, EC and Alice.  Was on jury duty yesterday and missed the real discussion on the thread.  I do find the concept of the IOU note interesting, but there would be some issues, namely what backs it up other than trust. California tried that and banks stopped taking them, and that was just a budget crisis, not a currency crisis. 

Not having access to currency is worse than just printing tons of currency, so that's what the government would have to do, even at the risk of hyperinflation.  We can once again talk about "not being worth a continental".  And obviously the government would have to keep the banks afloat to distribute the monopoly money.  The only real faith people have in our government is based on a viable system of currency IMHO.  The rest of what Uncle Sam does is still supported by money.

Interestingly, the dollar is continuing to strengthen against the Euro.  Is that less of a good sign for us or more of a bad sign for the EU?   :pondering: 
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Offline alicewonders

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Good discussion Oceander, EC and Alice.  Was on jury duty yesterday and missed the real discussion on the thread.  I do find the concept of the IOU note interesting, but there would be some issues, namely what backs it up other than trust. California tried that and banks stopped taking them, and that was just a budget crisis, not a currency crisis. 

Not having access to currency is worse than just printing tons of currency, so that's what the government would have to do, even at the risk of hyperinflation.  We can once again talk about "not being worth a continental".  And obviously the government would have to keep the banks afloat to distribute the monopoly money.  The only real faith people have in our government is based on a viable system of currency IMHO.  The rest of what Uncle Sam does is still supported by money.

Interestingly, the dollar is continuing to strengthen against the Euro.  Is that less of a good sign for us or more of a bad sign for the EU?   :pondering:

It must be more of a bad sign for the EU, I see nothing here that is a good sign for us.

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Offline EC

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Interestingly, the dollar is continuing to strengthen against the Euro.  Is that less of a good sign for us or more of a bad sign for the EU?   :pondering:

The overall 3rd quarter economic figures for the Eurozone are supposed to be pretty dire, according to pre - reports. People are getting their money out while they can, and the GBP can only take so much.

There is also pretty widespread speculation that Scotland will break away, and they've been told in no uncertain terms that if they do, the Bank of England will no longer back or honor their currency, leaving the only possible backer to be the European Central Bank. A new country, having to basically build an entire infrastructure from scratch is going to cause huge problems.

Same thing happened the last time the EU expanded. The Euro dropped.
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Offline MACVSOG68

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It must be more of a bad sign for the EU, I see nothing here that is a good sign for us.

You're probably right.  It is interesting though that gold and silver are far lower than they've been in recent years, which indicates a more valuable dollar.  Deflation comes to mind.  I'm not a fan of rules of thumb, but one is in inflation, buy gold; in deflation, hoard dollars.  But yeah, the EU does seem to be shaky at best. 
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Offline EC

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That is, to a degree, how many small, isolated economies end up working.  Many of the colonial era economies in the rural states operated that way de facto since the farmers didn't get hard currency, if at all, until they sold their crops and since the local economies revolved around the farmers, the rest of the economy went without hard currency as well.

It would certainly work in rural areas. But ... what about manufacturing? Still need raw materials digging and refining and machining and assembling. How would those workers be "paid." Even if the country got knocked back to the Amish level of technology, you still need steel for tools, miners to dig the coal to make the tools, transportation.
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Offline MACVSOG68

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The overall 3rd quarter economic figures for the Eurozone are supposed to be pretty dire, according to pre - reports. People are getting their money out while they can, and the GBP can only take so much.

There is also pretty widespread speculation that Scotland will break away, and they've been told in no uncertain terms that if they do, the Bank of England will no longer back or honor their currency, leaving the only possible backer to be the European Central Bank. A new country, having to basically build an entire infrastructure from scratch is going to cause huge problems.

Same thing happened the last time the EU expanded. The Euro dropped.

Well the GBP is continuing to climb against the Euro.  But that's interesting about Scotland.  I thought only one poll favored independence.  Are there more?  What would Scotland's economy look like on its own?  I know it still makes whiskey (thank God), and then there's fishing, some oil, tourism and government spending.  Anything else to keep it afloat?  Why would it have to build an entire infrastructure from scratch?
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Offline MACVSOG68

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It would certainly work in rural areas. But ... what about manufacturing? Still need raw materials digging and refining and machining and assembling. How would those workers be "paid." Even if the country got knocked back to the Amish level of technology, you still need steel for tools, miners to dig the coal to make the tools, transportation.

A handful could make it, but the vast majority couldn't...thus making the handful quite vulnerable.  Those who hate the government and its institutions at all levels would soon be pleading for government engineered stability.
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Well the GBP is continuing to climb against the Euro.  But that's interesting about Scotland.  I thought only one poll favored independence.  Are there more?  What would Scotland's economy look like on its own?  I know it still makes whiskey (thank God), and then there's fishing, some oil, tourism and government spending.  Anything else to keep it afloat?  Why would it have to build an entire infrastructure from scratch?

Not much fishing any more, most of the deep sea trawlers work out of Grimsby now. Oil, sure, but the rigs aren't owned by the Scots, nor are the pipelines. Government spending is always there, but where does the government get the money to spend? There is ship building, but that can be shifted to Portsmouth quite easily after the current hulls are complete.

As for infrastructure - they're going to have to replace the NHS, for one thing. Build their own central banking system from scratch. A lot of the UK call centers are located in Scotland - contacts will have to be renegotiated. All the airports are owned by an English company.

Then there is the vexed question of Balmoral. The Queen is rather fond of that place and owns it outright, as in it is hers, not the Crowns.

Edit - oops, forgot. They are going to need their own military too.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 11:29:42 am by EC »
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Offline MACVSOG68

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Not much fishing any more, most of the deep sea trawlers work out of Grimsby now. Oil, sure, but the rigs aren't owned by the Scots, nor are the pipelines. Government spending is always there, but where does the government get the money to spend? There is ship building, but that can be shifted to Portsmouth quite easily after the current hulls are complete.

As for infrastructure - they're going to have to replace the NHS, for one thing. Build their own central banking system from scratch. A lot of the UK call centers are located in Scotland - contacts will have to be renegotiated. All the airports are owned by an English company.

Then there is the vexed question of Balmoral. The Queen is rather fond of that place and owns it outright, as in it is hers, not the Crowns.

Edit - oops, forgot. They are going to need their own military too.

Interesting, thanks.  But the voters would also be aware of the issues wouldn't they?
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It would certainly work in rural areas. But ... what about manufacturing? Still need raw materials digging and refining and machining and assembling. How would those workers be "paid." Even if the country got knocked back to the Amish level of technology, you still need steel for tools, miners to dig the coal to make the tools, transportation.

Therein lies part of the reason why barter economies generally remain small agricultural economies.

That being said, miners usually have access to "hard" commodities that can be used as a fungible medium of exchange - gold and silver aren't the only metals that have been used.  Also, since metal implements are useful to farmers, miners and farmers can set up a mutually beneficial exchange system in which food is bartered for metal goods.

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Interesting, thanks.  But the voters would also be aware of the issues wouldn't they?

Scotland has more than it's fair share of LIVs. And despite being in the Union for a long time, they really don't like the English much.
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Good discussion Oceander, EC and Alice.  Was on jury duty yesterday and missed the real discussion on the thread.  I do find the concept of the IOU note interesting, but there would be some issues, namely what backs it up other than trust. California tried that and banks stopped taking them, and that was just a budget crisis, not a currency crisis. 

Not having access to currency is worse than just printing tons of currency, so that's what the government would have to do, even at the risk of hyperinflation.  We can once again talk about "not being worth a continental".  And obviously the government would have to keep the banks afloat to distribute the monopoly money.  The only real faith people have in our government is based on a viable system of currency IMHO.  The rest of what Uncle Sam does is still supported by money.

Interestingly, the dollar is continuing to strengthen against the Euro.  Is that less of a good sign for us or more of a bad sign for the EU?   :pondering: 


There are issues with private notes, including private bank notes as well as IOUs.  Most of those problems don't show up in small, closed economies, however.  That is how the concept of negotiable instruments developed.  For the most part regular people no longer use many negotiable instruments; the exception being personal checks, but even then personal checks are usually only negotiated once - when they're deposited or cashed at a bank.  Technically speaking, a personal check can be used to pay another third party - provided that third party will accept it - if the holder endorses the check and hands it to the third party; in fact, they can technically be negotiated multiple times, with each holder endorsing it at the time it's negotiated.

Warehouse receipts are another form of scrip currency that used to be used but aren't much anymore.

Basically, the system of fiat paper currency we have now is of very recent vintage and has only a few historical precursors.  Most currency systems beforehand were usually systems of privately issued notes - banks typically issued them because banks held a fungible asset that could be readily traded in place of the bank's notes - gold and silver - but the colonies, and then the states - prior to the Constitution - also issued various scrip currencies; in the agricultural states scrip would be issued to farmers and collateralized with the farmer's crops in the field.  In fact, one of the goals of the Constitutional Convention was doing away with state-issued scrip, in part because many of the states that issued scrip also tended to try and force creditors, especially out of state creditors, to accept that scrip in full satisfaction of the debts owed to those creditors.  Since out of state creditors lent in hard currency, they expected to be repaid in hard currency, and state-issued scrip was basically useless to them.  Hence the prohibition in the Constitution on the states making anything but gold or silver money, and the power granted to Congress to control the value of money.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 11:51:28 am by Oceander »

Offline MACVSOG68

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There are issues with private notes, including private bank notes as well as IOUs.  Most of those problems don't show up in small, closed economies, however.  That is how the concept of negotiable instruments developed.  For the most part regular people no longer use many negotiable instruments; the exception being personal checks, but even then personal checks are usually only negotiated once - when they're deposited or cashed at a bank.  Technically speaking, a personal check can be used to pay another third party - provided that third party will accept it - if the holder endorses the check and hands it to the third party; in fact, they can technically be negotiated multiple times, with each holder endorsing it at the time it's negotiated.

Warehouse receipts are another form of scrip currency that used to be used but aren't much anymore.

Basically, the system of fiat paper currency we have now is of very recent vintage and has only a few historical precursors.  Most currency systems beforehand were usually systems of privately issued notes - banks typically issued them because banks held a fungible asset that could be readily traded in place of the bank's notes - gold and silver - but the colonies, and then the states - prior to the Constitution - also issued various scrip currencies; in the agricultural states scrip would be issued to farmers and collateralized with the farmer's crops in the field.  In fact, one of the goals of the Constitutional Convention was doing away with state-issued scrip, in part because many of the states that issued scrip also tended to try and force creditors, especially out of state creditors, to accept that scrip in full satisfaction of the debts owed to those creditors.  Since out of state creditors lent in hard currency, they expected to be repaid in hard currency, and state-issued scrip was basically useless to them.  Hence the prohibition in the Constitution on the states making anything but gold or silver money, and the power granted to Congress to control the value of money.

Would be a hell of a transition...or band aid as the case might be.  And trust would be the key, a key that would be harder to develop than would the riots and looting that would begin almost immediately.  I suppose martial law would hold things together long enough, but as most here know, that would have its own set of issues.
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Would be a hell of a transition...or band aid as the case might be.  And trust would be the key, a key that would be harder to develop than would the riots and looting that would begin almost immediately.  I suppose martial law would hold things together long enough, but as most here know, that would have its own set of issues.

That's understating it.  This is the sort of economy that would arise after the riots have passed.  Some small, isolated communities might escape relatively unscathed, but everyone on the two coasts would be ravaged before this sort of economy would take root.

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That's understating it.  This is the sort of economy that would arise after the riots have passed.  Some small, isolated communities might escape relatively unscathed, but everyone on the two coasts would be ravaged before this sort of economy would take root.

Martial law would be the only hope especially in the urban areas.  Not a pretty picture.
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Martial law would be the only hope especially in the urban areas.  Not a pretty picture.

The first few nights would be terrifying, and the soldiers would be forced to shoot significant numbers of people, but I think after a few days under martial law the situation would calm down somewhat and quiet desperation would creep in and replace the outright large scale violence.  I do not think martial law under the National Guard and/or US Army would be pretty; it certainly would be more effective than any sort of "policing" the UN can do, and would be substantially more effective than the sort of riot control police departments are trained to carry out.  I still wouldn't want to be there.

It seems to me that, rather than hoarding weapons, gold, and silver, 'twould be better to reinforce a corner of one's basement as a sort of hidey-hole, hoard a stock of canned goods that can be eaten cold if need be, and water, and perhaps a few objects that could be used as weapons if need be; baseball bats, axe handles - an axe (and/or a hatchet) - knives and the like.  A rifle or shotgun would probably also be useful, along with a decent supply of ammunition, but my thinking is that a firearm is essentially a short-term tool useful primarily to get one through the first few really bad nights.  I'd also go with a rifle rather than a pistol because it has more "rhetorical" effect - a rifle can be seen much further away and will scare off a certain proportion of potential attackers, even if it's not loaded; a pistol has less of that effect.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 01:31:06 pm by Oceander »

Offline EC

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It seems to me that, rather than hoarding weapons, gold, and silver, 'twould be better to reinforce a corner of one's basement as a sort of hidey-hole, hoard a stock of canned goods that can be eaten cold if need be, and water, and perhaps a few objects that could be used as weapons if need be; baseball bats, axe handles - an axe (and/or a hatchet) - knives and the like.  A rifle or shotgun would probably also be useful, along with a decent supply of ammunition, but my thinking is that a firearm is essentially a short-term tool useful primarily to get one through the first few really bad nights.  I'd also go with a rifle rather than a pistol because it has more "rhetorical" effect - a rifle can be seen much further away and will scare off a certain proportion of potential attackers, even if it's not loaded; a pistol has less of that effect.

Don't forget water, and lots of it.

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,88069.0.html - Surviving chaos in the city.
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Don't forget water, and lots of it.

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,88069.0.html - Surviving chaos in the city.

Nope.  Didn't forget it.  Only question is where/how to store and how much.  Plastic jugs are fine if necessary, but they do get funky after a while.  Perhaps a porcelain-lined cistern of some sort as primary storage, with smaller containers (i.e., plastics) used as needed.

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Nope.  Didn't forget it.  Only question is where/how to store and how much.  Plastic jugs are fine if necessary, but they do get funky after a while.  Perhaps a porcelain-lined cistern of some sort as primary storage, with smaller containers (i.e., plastics) used as needed.

Old bathtub with a cover.
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Old bathtub with a cover.

Indeed.  Perhaps two, just to be safe, if we're going survivalist already.

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The first few nights would be terrifying, and the soldiers would be forced to shoot significant numbers of people, but I think after a few days under martial law the situation would calm down somewhat and quiet desperation would creep in and replace the outright large scale violence.  I do not think martial law under the National Guard and/or US Army would be pretty; it certainly would be more effective than any sort of "policing" the UN can do, and would be substantially more effective than the sort of riot control police departments are trained to carry out.  I still wouldn't want to be there.

It seems to me that, rather than hoarding weapons, gold, and silver, 'twould be better to reinforce a corner of one's basement as a sort of hidey-hole, hoard a stock of canned goods that can be eaten cold if need be, and water, and perhaps a few objects that could be used as weapons if need be; baseball bats, axe handles - an axe (and/or a hatchet) - knives and the like.  A rifle or shotgun would probably also be useful, along with a decent supply of ammunition, but my thinking is that a firearm is essentially a short-term tool useful primarily to get one through the first few really bad nights.  I'd also go with a rifle rather than a pistol because it has more "rhetorical" effect - a rifle can be seen much further away and will scare off a certain proportion of potential attackers, even if it's not loaded; a pistol has less of that effect.

We're definitely not long term survivalists but trying to cover all bases for the short term (a few months), we have a well stocked basement of canned goods and MREs, as well as water and a high quality portable water filter.  We do have an assortment of weapons, not for trade, but for defense.  We also have metals to cover sudden inflationary spikes as well as cash outside of banks for deflationary periods.  Plenty of medical supplies are also in the basement along with assorted batteries for portable lights.  Extra propane for cooking if that becomes necessary.

Anything long term, few will make it anyway. 
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We're definitely not long term survivalists but trying to cover all bases for the short term (a few months), we have a well stocked basement of canned goods and MREs, as well as water and a high quality portable water filter.  We do have an assortment of weapons, not for trade, but for defense.  We also have metals to cover sudden inflationary spikes as well as cash outside of banks for deflationary periods.  Plenty of medical supplies are also in the basement along with assorted batteries for portable lights.  Extra propane for cooking if that becomes necessary.

Anything long term, few will make it anyway. 


To quote Keynes (on the one point on which he was correct):  in the long run we're all dead.