Nate Silver expects ‘further decline ahead’ in Biden polls after debate
by Sarah Fortinsky - 07/02/24 8:35 AM ET
Pollster Nate Silver, the founder of ABC’s FiveThirtyEight, said he expects to see “some further decline” in President Biden’s poll numbers, as post-debate surveys are published in the days and weeks ahead.
Silver’s “2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast” tipped slightly in former President Trump’s favor Monday evening, after the first batch of post-debate polls were released. The results proved to be “mostly poor for Joe Biden,” the pollster said in his latest update.
Trump leads Biden by 2.7 percentage points in Silver’s model’s national polling average, and Biden’s win probability dropped to 28 percent, down from 35 percent on debate night, per the forecast. Silver said he expects polls to continue in the same direction.
“Our guess is that more likely than not, there’s some further decline ahead: the model is trying to figure out whether this is random noise, but instead it’s almost certainly caused by a challenging first debate for Biden. It’s not great news for the president,” he wrote Monday.
more
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4751340-nate-silver-joe-biden-polls-further-decline-post-debate-2024/