The Briefing Room
General Category => Politics/Government => Topic started by: HAPPY2BME on October 23, 2016, 03:07:35 pm
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Investors.com
With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.
(http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Poll_102316.jpg)
Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson saw his support held steady at 7%, while the Green Party's Jill Stein dipped to 3%.
Unrounded, Trump leads 42.6% to 40.8% — a 1.8-point edge — with Johnson at 7.2% and Stein at 3.3%.
Trump also holds a nearly one-point lead in a two-way matchup — 43.2% to 42.3%.
http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-up-2-points-nationwide-while-clinton-campaigns-as-if-the-race-is-already-won-ibdtipp-poll/
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Hear that?
It is the gnashing of teeth and the weeping of neocons.
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So going up against the absolute worst candidate....
..a candidate whose criminality is documented in her own words...
..a candidate who is so sick she can barely stand through a press conference or starts having coughing fits...
..a candidate whose own advisors say she is the most untrustworthy...
..a candidate whose resume reads like a college intern, with fewer accomplishments...
...and the Republican's put up a guy who can't even get out of the margin of error in his best polls, because he is just a mirror of her.....
Hillary represents the worst aspects of our government.
Trump represents the worst aspects of society.
Good job America!
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Outlier.
The ABC poll out this morning has Hillary up 12.
And that those Republicans who plan to vote in two weeks is down 7 points.
So there's that.
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Outlier.
The ABC poll out this morning has Hillary up 12.
And that those Republicans who plan to vote in two weeks is down 7 points.
So there's that.
Pretty pathetic that one has to hang their hopes on an OUTLIER poll that shows TWO WHOLE POINTS for a victory by their candidate.
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IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate in the last several elections....I would believe this poll over anything ABCNBCCBS puts out.
btw Rasmussen has it about the same so I don't think this is an outlier..
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Picking and choosing polls is not really accurate.
Poll aggregators are statistically and historically the most accurate. According to the RCP average, Hillary is leading Trump by 6 points.
So that is what I feel is the most accurate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
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IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate in the last several elections....I would believe this poll over anything ABCNBCCBS puts out. btw Rasmussen has it about the same so I don't think this is an outlier..
Trump the dictator may win, I don't trust polls at this date.
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Y'all do realize that what matters is the electoral college, not the popular vote. Remember 2000? Or 1824, 1876, or 1888? I have yet to see any electoral college forecasts that do not show Trump getting Tromped by Clinton.
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PollyVote is an aggregator of poll aggregators:
http://pollyvote.com/en/
Comes to the same conclusion as RCP.
Funny that Trump isn't being blown out of the water. He's doing about as well as McCain did in 2008.
That being said, I think there's worst stuff on Trump out there. Still haven't seen the "n-word" video that is rumored to exist.
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The LA Times Daily tracker shows it a dead heat... Trump +0.3
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Picking and choosing polls is not really accurate.
Poll aggregators are statistically and historically the most accurate. According to the RCP average, Hillary is leading Trump by 6 points.
So that is what I feel is the most accurate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
This is my view.
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IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate in the last several elections....I would believe this poll over anything ABCNBCCBS puts out.
btw Rasmussen has it about the same so I don't think this is an outlier..
Myst, it's the trend that matters, and IBD falls outside the trend. So does Rasmussen.
I'm betting the internals of both polls oversample Republicans.
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The LA Times Daily tracker shows it a dead heat... Trump +0.3
But if it doesn't turn out that way, I'm sure that 1911 will express its outrage, won't it.
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In fact, the ABC poll (which has Hillary up 12 points today) was closer in 2012 than IBD:
(http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ISSpoll101216.png)
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Picking and choosing polls is not really accurate.
Poll aggregators are statistically and historically the most accurate. According to the RCP average, Hillary is leading Trump by 6 points.
So that is what I feel is the most accurate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Most importantly, Trump can't win without Florida. and every poll since 10/4 has Clinto leading here by @ 4%.
WHICH SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE TRUMP MAY WIN THE NATIONAL VOTE BY A SLIGHT MARGIN AND LOSE THE ELECTION IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
That may set up a face-on challenge to the electoral college by Trump's populist movement.
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Even if this poll has any credibility, Trump needs at least 5~7% of a cushion to overcome the DNC Fraud, just ask Mitt (who I also didn't vote for).
I just don't see him making up those numbers, and that LA poll had him up 15% just 2 weeks ago. what's up with that??????
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He is winning in the alt/right universe.
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Hear that?
It is the gnashing of teeth and the weeping of neocons.
@HAPPY2BME, as you well know, many of us here and many people elsewhere, associate "neocon" with active anti-semitism*. The fact that you continue to use that word here says to me that you are OK with being thought of that way by your fellow posters. Is that your intent?
*And, do so with good reason.
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It is important to remember, the closer you get to the election, the more accurate the polls will become. Next week's polls will start to be more reflective of what will happen.
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IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate in the last several elections....I would believe this poll over anything ABCNBCCBS puts out.
btw Rasmussen has it about the same so I don't think this is an outlier..
I saw it pointed out the other day the media owned polls are consistently showing Clinton with a lead, while the non-broadcast media polls like IBD and Rassmussen are showing ties and slight Trump leads. This is in turn throwing the poll aggregators off, like RCP. IMHO, they cannot be trusted now because the media-driven polls are so biased at this time. They usually tighten up in the day or two before the vote (to rebuild cred, I suppose), but at this point the media polls are out there primarily to influence the vote, rather than measure it.
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I saw it pointed out the other day the media owned polls are consistently showing Clinton with a lead, while the non-broadcast media polls like IBD and Rassmussen are showing ties and slight Trump leads. This is in turn throwing the poll aggregators off, like RCP. IMHO, they cannot be trusted now because the media-driven polls are so biased at this time. They usually tighten up in the day or two before the vote (to rebuild cred, I suppose), but at this point the media polls are out there primarily to influence the vote, rather than measure it.
This year, either the Chicago Cubs or the Cleveland Indians will win the Pennant, and either Hillary or Trump the Presidency.
Every loser has its (year) day.
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Outlier.
The ABC poll out this morning has Hillary up 12.
And that those Republicans who plan to vote in two weeks is down 7 points.
So there's that.
@sinkspur
See the editorial I just posted about the Meet the Depressed Show this morning. You ain't going to like it.
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Trump the dictator may win, I don't trust polls at this date.
@Victoria33
You mean "dictator" as oppossed to the Good and Gentle Queen Hillary?
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Y'all do realize that what matters is the electoral college, not the popular vote. Remember 2000? Or 1824, 1876, or 1888? I have yet to see any electoral college forecasts that do not show Trump getting Tromped by Clinton.
@Oceander
ABC convinced me to vote for Trump this morning.
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@Oceander
ABC convinced me to vote for Trump this morning.
Just another guy swated by the MSM on how to cast your vote.
:patriot:
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This year, either the Chicago Cubs or the Cleveland Indians will win the Pennant, and either Hillary or Trump the Presidency.
Every loser has its (year) day.
An interesting comparison, Cubs & Indians. That IS rather strange. The Cubs have had a great season, so it wasn't unexpected to see them in the big game, but it's still odd.
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@HAPPY2BME, as you well know, many of us here and many people elsewhere, associate "neocon" with active anti-semitism*. The fact that you continue to use that word here says to me that you are OK with being thought of that way by your fellow posters. Is that your intent?
*And, do so with good reason.
@Sanguine
How do you figure that? To the best of my recollection,the neo-con movement was mostly Jewish-Powered at the top when it started. How could they be anti-Semites?
Or truth to tell,anything other than "Anti-anyone that isn't a family member,business partner,or on our payroll". I am pretty sure they are equal-opportunity Nazi's.
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The populist rage that spurred Trump won't go away because he said something incredibly dumb 10 years ago. It's possible Hillary and Trump polls could return to where they were before "Pussygate".
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@Sanguine
How do you figure that? To the best of my recollection,the neo-con movement was mostly Jewish-Powered at the top when it started. How could they be anti-Semites?
This doesn't look like a direct analogy, but an indirect one. It appears the people you could call "neocons" are heavily pro-Jewish. It's the people applying the term "neocons" as a pejorative label on others that are seen as anti-Semitic. I think Pat Buchanan originated the term right after his "Amen Chorus" column.
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Yes, yes, Hillary will be awful, too. But Trump is flat out crazy.
Bubbette! is more than simply "awful". She is evil to her very core. Evil is ALWAYS evil,but crazy isn't always evil. In fact,given his enormous ego that no one denies,if he is elected he might just take it seriously because he knows he will be judged by the job he does,and he knows he won't be able to lie he way out of it.
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There is bias in all polling. It's just the biases differ. IMO, polling it overused and overvalued.
I maintain most polling we see in so-called news media is not primarily purposed for measuring something, but rather to influence something. This makes it pretty worthless if you're looking for a metric to understand what people really think about something.
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@Oceander
ABC convinced me to vote for Trump this morning.
Ok
Trump convinced me to vote 3rd party/write in.
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I agree. But it is not just news media polling. Bias causes them to skew the polling, something even unintentionally. But also they use it to shape how the campaign is presented down the line. So the effort to influence is before and after. I would even change the word "influence" to "manipulate." The obsession is not about information. It is a campaign tool In that sense I think in undermines the careful weighing of the issues necessary to a healthy constitutional republic.
Polling is used for all sorts of things...companies run focus groups to decide what their signs should look like and what their menus should be. "Public opinion" is only one kind of polling, the other kinds are also very important because they determine the direction commerce should go.
If one section of this particular industry (polling) drags itself through the mud by manipulating the subjects (I like your word better), then it puts the profitable, functional and useful segments of the industry in jeopardy.
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This doesn't look like a direct analogy, but an indirect one. It appears the people you could call "neocons" are heavily pro-Jewish. It's the people applying the term "neocons" as a pejorative label on others that are seen as anti-Semitic. I think Pat Buchanan originated the term right after his "Amen Chorus" column.
@Cyber Liberty
Ok,thanks for the explanation. Now I understand,although it is still going to be confusing when reading a post from someone whose political history I don't know.
If people hate Jews I just wish they would post that they hate Jews so the rest of us could tune them out. After all,it ain't like we are going to track them down and make them go to Temple,or anything.
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It makes sense for commerce. That is a different animal. In politics people are greatly influenced by what they are told is popular opinion. In commerce it may be a good idea to assess the direction you should take in an investment based on popular opinion. In politics not so much. In that case polling is used as a manipulation tool Politics needs to draw deeper into the intellect of the voters than commerce does. It depends on an already informed citizenry who are willing to listen carefully and apply good judgment and wisdom. Instead it has turned into a primary season of "Survivor" and a general election season of 'To Tell The Truth" only with the spin that ON ONE is telling the truth. Slogans win elections. That should never be. We are being marketed into socialism and dictatorship.
We need to wise up. Literally.
Then how do you explain that most polls in 2012 were either on target or very close?
If "we" are being marketed into dictatorship (which I don't believe for a minute) then it's our fault. You act as if we have no choice in any of this.
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Y'all do realize that what matters is the electoral college, not the popular vote. Remember 2000? Or 1824, 1876, or 1888? I have yet to see any electoral college forecasts that do not show Trump getting Tromped by Clinton.
Yeah, I don't think anyone remembers 1824, 1876 or 1888... :tongue2: but the point stands.
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Yeah, I don't think anyone remembers 1824, 1876 or 1888... :tongue2: but the point stands.
I remember 1824 like it was yesterday!
The sun was shining, babies were burping, the cats were jumping out of hats...
Xenu the Galactic Overlord had stopped by for a cup of coffee. He felt bad about dumping all his frozen enemies into earth volcanos and unleashing the 'body thetans' to possess humans.
I told him, "Not to worry. Our psychic vampires feed on body thetans, so we've tamed them and placed them into "body thetan" ranches."
He was so surprised by that he ralphnored a bumblefrotz, I tell you!
Then we went for ice cream.
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So going up against the absolute worst candidate....
..a candidate whose criminality is documented in her own words...
..a candidate who is so sick she can barely stand through a press conference or starts having coughing fits...
..a candidate whose own advisors say she is the most untrustworthy...
..a candidate whose resume reads like a college intern, with fewer accomplishments...
...and the Republican's put up a guy who can't even get out of the margin of error in his best polls, because he is just a mirror of her.....
Hillary represents the worst aspects of our government.
Trump represents the worst aspects of society.
Good job America!
And therefore.....basically....
America deserves the screwin America will be getting.
Good job indeed.
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This doesn't look like a direct analogy, but an indirect one. It appears the people you could call "neocons" are heavily pro-Jewish. It's the people applying the term "neocons" as a pejorative label on others that are seen as anti-Semitic. I think Pat Buchanan originated the term right after his "Amen Chorus" column.
And coincidentally.....I recall being labeled a "neocon" by rabid, frothing lefties at other forums over the past two decades. Odd that the pro-Trump crowd would now also be using that term against those of us that are anti-Trump. Oh wait...
come to think of it....
it's not odd at all.
Trumpocrats.
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(http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Hillary+Clinton+Hillary+Clinton+Tim+Kaine+RY9qIFSt5mfl.jpg)
Ridiculous comment. Anyway, we will know soon enough. You have only 16 more days of spewing hatred about this. I'm sure you will miss it.
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Editor's note: Happy inserted the picture of Hillary into RAT's quote to make it look like RAT put it there.
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Thanks for catching that. I have (un)HAPPY blocked so I did not noticed. It is dishonest as can be. So let the record show who peddles in dishonesty.
I'm sure He/She/It got it from a Caption Photo at TOS a couple of hours ago:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3483907/posts (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3483907/posts)
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Thanks for catching that. I have (un)HAPPY blocked so I did not noticed. It is dishonest as can be. So let the record show who peddles in dishonesty.
But....we already knew that before they provided the proof...lol. On some forums, editing someone's quote like that would be an actionable offense and rules violation. They don't know how lucky they are being here.
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RCP has moved TEXAS to a Toss UP.
(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/images/downloads/29_thb.png)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html)
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And coincidentally.....I recall being labeled a "neocon" by rabid, frothing lefties at other forums over the past two decades. Odd that the pro-Trump crowd would now also be using that term against those of us that are anti-Trump. Oh wait...
come to think of it....
it's not odd at all.
Trumpocrats.
@XenaLee
Yeah,you noticed that,too.
I suspect we even have one Mod here that fits that bill.
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Interesting. I am sure HAPPY felt very clever with that little move. Just like Trump, he thinks lying makes him clever.
@RAT Patrol
Yeah,Heaven Forbid we ever have a political candidate that would lie to us.
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Donald Trump still has a slight edge in Rasmussen Reports’ latest White House Watch
Monday, October 24, 2016
Today’s survey is unchanged from Friday but includes the second full night of surveying following the final presidential debate last week in Las Vegas. Rasmussen Reports is one of three national polls that still shows the race as competitive with two weeks to go; most others portray Clinton with a wide – and, in some cases, growing - lead.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct24
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Thanks for catching that. I have (un)HAPPY blocked so I did not noticed. It is dishonest as can be. So let the record show who peddles in dishonesty.
Thats one reason I never block them. They are guaranteed to do liberal crap like that. Evil has to be countered wherever they display it.