The Briefing Room
General Category => Elections 2020 => Topic started by: catfish1957 on October 26, 2020, 05:02:24 pm
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https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct26 (https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct26)
Jaw dropping!!!!
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Heartening.
"2016. Rasmussen Reports' final White House Watch survey showed Democrat Hillary Clinton with a 1.7% popular-vote lead over Republican Donald Trump. After all 136+ million U.S. votes were counted, Clinton led the popular vote by 2.1%."
If the same holds true for 2020, Trump has a good shot of winning. He doesn't need to win the popular vote.
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Heartening.
"2016. Rasmussen Reports' final White House Watch survey showed Democrat Hillary Clinton with a 1.7% popular-vote lead over Republican Donald Trump. After all 136+ million U.S. votes were counted, Clinton led the popular vote by 2.1%."
If the same holds true for 2020, Trump has a good shot of winning. He doesn't need to win the popular vote.
Exactly agree. A decent popular vote lead with some cushion will sure be nice to counter any dimocratic monkey business.
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Exactly agree. A decent popular vote lead with some cushion will sure be nice to counter any dimocratic monkey business.
This place is basically group therapy for me. :D
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I would not be surprised if the Democrat position totally collapses in the next week.
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This place is basically group therapy for me. :D
Well it is something that is fosure! Therapy was not the 1st to come to mind! :beer:
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I would not be surprised if the Democrat position totally collapses in the next week.
The pressure must be intense. I don't see any way the rats can respond - they've used every tool they have. Just hunker down and hope they can maintain their lead through 11/3. Which they may have already lost.
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The pressure must be intense. I don't see any way the rats can respond - they've used every tool they have. Just hunker down and hope they can maintain their lead through 11/3. Which they may have already lost.
And basement Joe calls a lid on everything till election day. They are literally leaderless right before the biggest push of the whole election cycle.
Just stab your momentum right in the heart, all the way down the ticket as you gasp to reach the finish line.
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This is a 13 point swing in October in the National Rasmussen polling....that's what I would call some nice momentum.
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This place is basically group therapy for me. :D
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Books/Pix/pictures/2009/2/6/1233928741886/One-Flew-Over-the-Cuckoos-001.jpg?width=300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=0e0eba0a6bbe82d3cce800c7da09cc5b)
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The pressure must be intense. I don't see any way the rats can respond - they've used every tool they have. Just hunker down and hope they can maintain their lead through 11/3. Which they may have already lost.
Let's see who will NOT be voting for them:
Overwhelmingly
Policemen
Oil industry workers
Coal Miners
Gun owners
Mostly
Church attendees
Military
Who the Dems have mostly
Antifa
BLM
DC bureaucrats
Chinese sympathizers
Any type of odd sex pervert
Drug users
Felons
Non-Americans
Teachers
Media types
Techie types
CNN/MSNBC watchers
Highly paid professional athletes
Globalists (or those who want US to be same as the world)
Environmentalists
Communists
Welfare recipients
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The pressure must be intense. I don't see any way the rats can respond - they've used every tool they have. Just hunker down and hope they can maintain their lead through 11/3. Which they may have already lost.
888high58888 @skeeter
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(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Books/Pix/pictures/2009/2/6/1233928741886/One-Flew-Over-the-Cuckoos-001.jpg?width=300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=0e0eba0a6bbe82d3cce800c7da09cc5b)
Yup, We even have several Nurse Ratched's.
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Yup, We even have several Nurse Ratched's.
:laugh:
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@IsailedawayfromFR @Right_in_Virginia @Vulcan After her performance yesterday I'm hoping they trot out their secret weapon, Kamala. Whatta screwball.
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@IsailedawayfromFR @Right_in_Virginia @Vulcan After her performance yesterday I'm hoping they trot out their secret weapon, Kamala. Whatta screwball.
Kamala is for real mentally and emotionally unstable. There is absolutely something not right about her.
I've seen her speak a dozen or more times, and each time she seems like she's one heckler away from a total hormonal PMS breakdown.
She makes Crazy Mazie look almost normal.
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@IsailedawayfromFR @Right_in_Virginia @Vulcan After her performance yesterday I'm hoping they trot out their secret weapon, Kamala. Whatta screwball.
Talk Radio host, Chris Plante calls her "Kackala" because of her ridiculous 'laugh' which appears whenever she is asked an uncomfortable question.
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Talk Radio host, Chris Plante calls her "Kackala" because of her ridiculous 'laugh' which appears whenever she is asked an uncomfortable question.
She's a real lightweight. I can't stand the thought of Biden winning because it means she'll soon be the most powerful person in the world.
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She's a real lightweight. I can't stand the thought of Biden winning because it means she'll be the most powerful person in the world.
Perhaps .... if Biden/Harris win the election, Sloe Joe will step down, but I'm betting that Michelle will be her VP, thus making the Obama's the most powerful couple in the world.
Hoping and praying for a Trump landslide.
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@IsailedawayfromFR @Right_in_Virginia @Vulcan After her performance yesterday I'm hoping they trot out their secret weapon, Kamala. Whatta screwball.
She shows up in the fracking videos shown at the rallies. Ane rest assured POTUS is not hiding his thoughts about Ms. KAmala during his speeches .... :laugh:
@skeeter
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She's a real lightweight. I can't stand the thought of Biden winning because it means she'll be the most powerful person in the world.
It hurts to imagine how the press will deify her. Big K's picture will be everywhere there
will be no escape from her face and voice. It will be a hell.
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Here's the clip (w/o the crowd's reactions .... ) shown at a Trump rally today in PA. The crowd was reacting with boos, etc. during the showing of the clip and literally burst into a spontaneous, sustained chant of "Four More Years!" "Four More Years".
This video is brilliant. pointing-down
Team Trump (Text VOTE to 88022)
@TeamTrump
Playing NOW at the Trump rally in #Pennsylvania
(New) Video: https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1320835731829542912
5:12 PM · Oct 26, 2020·Twitter Web App
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I would not be surprised if the Democrat position totally collapses in the next week.
Right. The polls have been jacking the numbers all the way along... but the last 2 weeks or so they HAVE TO start pulling them back toward reality or they will have no claim to legitimacy by the time the election numbers start rolling in.
I don't know why folks get surprised by it... it happens every time. I predict by election day it will be neck to neck with a lean toward democrats. The result will be neck to neck with an electoral lean toward Republicans.
No secret sauce, no ghost army of Tumpy voters... Just another angst driven squeaker.
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Right. The polls have been jacking the numbers all the way along... but the last 2 weeks or so they HAVE TO start pulling them back toward reality or they will have no claim to legitimacy by the time the election numbers start rolling in.
I don't know why folks get surprised by it... it happens every time. I predict by election day it will be neck to neck with a lean toward democrats. The result will be neck to neck with an electoral lean toward Republicans.
No secret sauce, no ghost army of Tumpy voters... Just another angst driven squeaker.
I tend to agree, but the twist is Biden has thrown chlorine tablets into the fishtank with his fossil fuels comments, and I think that may accelerate it. It also appears to be affecting the down ticket.
Same collapse, but more dramatic than they thought. Maybe enough to keep Congress from the Dems.
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I tend to agree, but the twist is Biden has thrown chlorine tablets into the fishtank with his fossil fuels comments, and I think that may accelerate it. It also appears to be affecting the down ticket.
That's a tough play to call... Most of the oil industry is in red states, and won't make a difference in the numbers... Similar to rabble rousing in blue cities... It may galvanize those cities, but they were blue anyway from the get-go
I don't believe Texas was ever in jeopardy... So galvanizing the oil vote may bring out more red, but the state was red all along.
PENN, YES.
OHIO, YES.
But otherwise, probably wouldn't matter anyhow.
Even so, your statement has weight. Messin with the numbers in swing states will be what matters.
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That's a tough play to call... Most of the oil industry is in red states, and won't make a difference in the numbers... Similar to rabble rousing in blue cities... It may galvanize those cities, but they were blue anyway from the get-go
I don't believe Texas was ever in jeopardy... So galvanizing the oil vote may bring out more red, but the state was red all along.
PENN, YES.
OHIO, YES.
Even so, your statement has weight. Messin with the numbers in swing states will be what matters.
He doesn't realize that now he's made the swing state Iowa farmer start wondering how he's going to raise his crops without fuel and fertilizer and make a living, as is the trucker, business owner, plant manager...
I really hope that's the thing that nukes him, simply because Biden is that country club bully pr*ck who thinks he can throw his weight around and get what he wants.
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@IsailedawayfromFR @Right_in_Virginia @Vulcan After her performance yesterday I'm hoping they trot out their secret weapon, Kamala. Whatta screwball.
Trump ought to bottle that cackle of hers for some campaign air time. Witch Hazel on 'roids.
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Right. The polls have been jacking the numbers all the way along... but the last 2 weeks or so they HAVE TO start pulling them back toward reality or they will have no claim to legitimacy by the time the election numbers start rolling in.
I don't know why folks get surprised by it... it happens every time. I predict by election day it will be neck to neck with a lean toward democrats. The result will be neck to neck with an electoral lean toward Republicans.
No secret sauce, no ghost army of Tumpy voters... Just another angst driven squeaker.
At what point do we just say, "Screw this" and then deny them any credibility from the get-go? After watching dozen or so of these things I've come to know about what you are saying about the numbers always getting tighter to protect the "reputation" of the pollsters, so shouldn't it be assumed they're never correct when it matters?
And I'd remind that in '16 most polls of the Electoral College were giving it to Clinton in the later evening on Election night. The EC predictions never got it right.
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He doesn't realize that now he's made the swing state Iowa farmer start wondering how he's going to raise his crops without fuel and fertilizer and make a living, as is the trucker, business owner, plant manager...
That's probably right... But that has also been there in every election since way back... since the 90s maybe... I get the Green New Deal is appalling, but it is nothing new.
I really hope that's the thing that nukes him, simply because Biden is that country club bully pr*ck who thinks he can throw his weight around and get what he wants.
I'll admit to a certain amount of schadenfreude in that direction... but a nearly equal amount if it goes the other way, so... :whistle: :shrug:
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At what point do we just say, "Screw this" and then deny them any credibility from the get-go? After watching dozen or so of these things I've come to know about what you are saying about the numbers always getting tighter to protect the "reputation" of the pollsters, so shouldn't it be assumed they're never correct when it matters?
Suits me fine. I never have paid em any mind... That they get it right, or get it close is not the point, because by the time they actually do start getting it right or getting it close, it's too late to pay them mind anyway. One of the benefits of voting on the record - you can neatly avoid all the stump speeches, debates, and all the fooferaw that go with em.
In the study of people they're fun though... Seeing folks strutting around over the numbers like they're gospel truth... Folks experiencing masturbatory glee over a point or two in the right direction when the margin of error is likely three or four points... Folks crushed by a poll coming out 5 points different from the last one... That people get so verklempt and jerked around by something so obviously easy to manipulate is a amazement to me. I will never tire of watching it happen.
And I'd remind that in '16 most polls of the Electoral College were giving it to Clinton in the later evening on Election night. The EC predictions never got it right.
Right, but in the data they were close. the bias was in the lean. In most of the states that were too close to call, the bias, and therefore the lean, went to Clinton. The difference looks big on the blue/red board, but the data supporting that was sometimes a matter of minutia.
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That's probably right... But that has also been there in every election since way back... since the 90s maybe... I get the Green New Deal is appalling, but it is nothing new.
I'll admit to a certain amount of schadenfreude in that direction... but a nearly equal amount if it goes the other way, so... :whistle: :shrug:
I have to disagree with you on this one @roamer_1 The New Green Deal IS new and pushes socialistic ideals to an extreme -- for example; completely doing away with fossil fuels 100%. No other "going green" concept has gone that far. Another concept; upgrading ALL buildings for energy efficiency. Think of the costs and the absurdity -- again the New Green Deal takes things beyond an extreme ...also AOC's New Green Deal wants to guarantee jobs with a family-sustaining wage, adequate family and medical leave, paid vacations and retirement security for every American -- again highly absurd -- paid vacations? Where are these jobs going to come from if the push is to do away with all fossil fuels, etc. This "New Deal" also does away with ALL air travel. Not only are these ideas extreme and absurd, but you think that the debt is ridiculous now, think of the debt that this "New Deal" will rack up.
The push for clean energy equating to higher taxes is nothing new, but the extremism of the New Green Deal certainly is as is the radicalism of the group known as "The Squad" that continues to back this and openly promotes socialism-- even Pelosi has no control over them. That is beyond concerning. Perhaps even more concerning is that they were voted into office. They, the DEMS and socialism must not be allowed to take hold and succeed.
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I have to disagree with you on this one @roamer_1 The New Green Deal IS new and pushes socialistic ideals to an extreme -- for example; completely doing away with fossil fuels 100%. No other "going green" concept has gone that far. Another concept; upgrading ALL buildings for energy efficiency. Think of the costs and the absurdity -- again the New Green Deal takes things beyond an extreme ...also AOC's New Green Deal wants to guarantee jobs with a family-sustaining wage, adequate family and medical leave, paid vacations and retirement security for every American -- again highly absurd -- paid vacations? Where are these jobs going to come from if the push is to do away with all fossil fuels, etc. This "New Deal" also does away with ALL air travel. Not only are these ideas extreme and absurd, but you think that the debt is ridiculous now, think of the debt that this "New Deal" will rack up.
The push for clean energy equating to higher taxes is nothing new, but the extremism of the New Green Deal certainly is as is the radicalism of the group known as "The Squad" that continues to back this and openly promotes socialism-- even Pelosi has no control over them. That is beyond concerning. Perhaps even more concerning is that they were voted into office. They, the DEMS and socialism must not be allowed to take hold and succeed.
@libertybele
I will agree it seems more shrill, but that may well be because it's in your face - Folks forget the bygone fairly readily. But everything you have exampled has been brought forth time and again. It is typical liberal fare that I have heard before over and over again.
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I watched the 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris and she refused to embrace the "Liberal" or "Progressive" label. She attempted to blame her liberal rating on Pence.
She also danced around her support for Medicare for All and the GND. the reason is because the DNC leadership understands that Americans are Center to center right still and to be honest about their plans would result in an electoral routing nationwide
Plus, what was with all her cackling?
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That's a tough play to call... Most of the oil industry is in red states, and won't make a difference in the numbers... Similar to rabble rousing in blue cities... It may galvanize those cities, but they were blue anyway from the get-go
I don't believe Texas was ever in jeopardy... So galvanizing the oil vote may bring out more red, but the state was red all along.
PENN, YES.
OHIO, YES.
But otherwise, probably wouldn't matter anyhow.
Even so, your statement has weight. Messin with the numbers in swing states will be what matters.
Untrue of New Mexico, Colorado.
And there are over 150,000 oil industry workers in California. And guess what? Most are blue collar workers.
California wants to wind down its gas and oil industry. What does it mean for jobs?
For tens of thousands of Californians, a job in the oil and gas industry has been a ticket to a middle-class life.
The work can be dangerous. It can be unhealthy. Still, the industry has been among the few willing to employ Californians without a college degree and pay them well above average.
But as the state seeks to wind down its gas and oil industry — made even clearer last week by Gov. Gavin Newsom’s call to scale back fracking and ban the sale of gas-powered cars in the state by 2035 — those jobs are at risk. https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article246092400.html#:~:text=Middle%2Dclass%20jobs,%2480%2C500%20a%20year%20on%20average. (https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article246092400.html#:~:text=Middle%2Dclass%20jobs,%2480%2C500%20a%20year%20on%20average.)
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I watched the 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris and she refused to embrace the "Liberal" or "Progressive" label. She attempted to blame her liberal rating on Pence.
She also danced around her support for Medicare for All and the GND. the reason is because the DNC leadership understands that Americans are Center to center right still and to be honest about their plans would result in an electoral routing nationwide
Plus, what was with all her cackling?
She learned Willie liked it when he was on top.
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Untrue of New Mexico, Colorado.
And there are over 150,000 oil industry workers in California. And guess what? Most are blue collar workers.
You did notice the 'most' at the beginning of my statement, right?
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The Barrett confirmation -- just a few minutes ago -- is gonna help.
Except for Collins in Maine, who voted "no".
She's on her way out.
This was her last hurrah...
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You did notice the 'most' at the beginning of my statement, right?
You said it won't make a difference in the numbers. And that was not qualified by 'most'.
And there are plenty of non-oilfield people who will vote against this call by Biden to eliminate the industry.
What will a farmer be thinking he will put into his tractor if not diesel and oil? Sure won't be a solar panel.
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You said it won't make a difference in the numbers. And that was not qualified by 'most'.
And there are plenty of non-oilfield people who will vote against this call by Biden to eliminate the industry.
What will a farmer be thinking he will put into his tractor if not diesel and oil? Sure won't be a solar panel.
Right... And like with oil workers, farmers tend to be in RED states... so...
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Right... And like with oil workers, farmers tend to be in RED states... so...
Are you absolutely crazy?
Do you know what is the largest farming state by far? California.
Also has 4 of the ten largest oil fields ever discovered in the lower 48
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Are you absolutely crazy?
Do you know what is the largest farming state by far? California.
Also has 4 of the ten largest oil fields ever discovered in the lower 48
So Cali is gonna flip for Tump? And you think I'm crazy... *****rollingeyes*****
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So Cali is gonna flip for Tump? And you think I'm crazy... *****rollingeyes*****
Nope, you just made a ridiculous comment. Try to learn from mistakes. Oh wait. You never admit you make them.
And of the top ten farm states, it also includes Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa.
So 1/2 of top ten of farm states are in blue states.
https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=17844
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The Barrett confirmation -- just a few minutes ago -- is gonna help.
Except for Collins in Maine, who voted "no".
She's on her way out.
Yep she's on her way out which doesn't help the GOP to keep the Senate .. 9999hair out0000
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Yep she's on her way out which doesn't help the GOP to keep the Senate .. 9999hair out0000
Piss on her. Might as well be a demorat seat anyway. Be gone bitch. Be gone.
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Nope, you just made a ridiculous comment. Try to learn from mistakes.
And of the top ten farm states, it also includes Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa.
So 1/2 of top ten of farm states are in blue states.
https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=17844
Alright... and in all of those states, the farmers don't matter a whit. In all of those states, large cities OWN the state, just like LA and San Fran Sicko OWN Ca. Just like Chicago OWNS IL... The farmers already vote nearly enbloc for the right, and cannot even begin to touch the popular vote held in those mega-cities.
Turning the farmers in those states is the silly idea. Farm country is already voting red.
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This "New Deal" also does away with ALL air travel.
Do you think for a second that Nancy Pelosi would be willing to forgo air travel for an 80-hour train ride from Washington to Oakland? This "New Deal" won't do away with all air travel. It will only do away with air travel for us regular folks. Ayn Rand wrote a book about it.
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So Cali is gonna flip for Tump? And you think I'm crazy... *****rollingeyes*****
California has recent demographic changes those other farm state do not that will prevent it from ever turning red again. Without those it probably would, as it did in the eighties.
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California has recent demographic changes those other farm state do not that will prevent it from ever turning red again. Without those it probably would, as it did in the eighties.
I get it... Similar to Illinois... Fifty miles outside of Chicago the whole place is redneck as can be... But it does not matter, and hasn't for all my life. The whole rest of the state together does not have the population that Chicago does, not even close.
This is why I have been a proponent of something like the electoral college for states, for exactly the same reason it is there in the fed.
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Are you absolutely crazy?
Do you know what is the largest farming state by far? California.
Also has 4 of the ten largest oil fields ever discovered in the lower 48
Yes, but the populace that keeps California blue is urban: LA and the Bay Area. They are inhabited by nitwits who think urban life is self-sustaining, that electric vehicles produce no pollution (because the pollution they produce is far away either spatially, or temporally, the latter when the solar panels turn in to unrecyclable junk), that homelessness is caused by "capitalism" rather than their own NIMBY zoning, land-use laws and rent-control laws, and a lot of other stupid things that the people who work on the farms and in the oil fields know better than to believe.
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PENN, YES.
OHIO, YES.
Since 2000, we have been bombarded with the slogan, "As Ohio goes, so goes the country." Bush won Ohio in 2000 and 2004. Obama in 2008 and 2012. Trump in 2016. But this year, the press is completely silent about Ohio - a state that Trump leads in the polls. Go figure.
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Since 2000, we have been bombarded with the slogan, "As Ohio goes, so goes the country." Bush won Ohio in 2000 and 2004. Obama in 2008 and 2012. Trump in 2016. But this year, the press is completely silent about Ohio - a state that Trump leads in the polls. Go figure.
Biden is in deeper doo doo that the complicit MSM and pollsters are letting on. That is why Raz is about the only one of these that I feel have any credibility at all. Watch the bastard media pundit's faces. It's one of sorrow and fear. We used to rag on Pravda as the state run media. It's as bad or worse here now.
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Heard on local radio the Ohio tyrant Dewine may close the polls as he did for the primary.
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It hurts to imagine how the press will deify her. Big K's picture will be everywhere there
will be no escape from her face and voice. It will be a hell.
OMG that voice is truly cringeworthy! I read an article recently remarking on her really happy, giddy demeanor out on the campaign trail; she's having a blast. The article goes on to say that the empathy and concern for citizens that dems promote themselves to have is trumped (pun intended) by this gal's odd "dancing campaign" in front of very few people.... Weird.
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That's a tough play to call... Most of the oil industry is in red states, and won't make a difference in the numbers... Similar to rabble rousing in blue cities... It may galvanize those cities, but they were blue anyway from the get-go
I don't believe Texas was ever in jeopardy... So galvanizing the oil vote may bring out more red, but the state was red all along.
PENN, YES.
OHIO, YES.
But otherwise, probably wouldn't matter anyhow.
Even so, your statement has weight. Messin with the numbers in swing states will be what matters.
RCP average has Trump ahead in ohio.
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Rasumussen must be on daily mode now..... Today +2 Biden. MOE-wise,,, pretty much the same number.
GOTV is at its most criticality at this exact moment. Slow Joe must not be POTUS for the sake of our future.
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I'm not quite sure why people in here are even paying attention to the polls -- they haven't been accurate in a very long time and several election cycles. Not even close.
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Since 2000, we have been bombarded with the slogan, "As Ohio goes, so goes the country." Bush won Ohio in 2000 and 2004. Obama in 2008 and 2012. Trump in 2016. But this year, the press is completely silent about Ohio - a state that Trump leads in the polls. Go figure.
I don't doubt any of that at all.
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I'm not quite sure why people in here are even paying attention to the polls -- they haven't been accurate in a very long time and several election cycles. Not even close.
That's right. pointing-up
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RCP average has Trump ahead in ohio.
No doubt he is ahead in a lot of places, to include swing states. We'll get a better feel for it as it comes down to the wire, and pollsters have to reign in the numbers to something approaching reality.
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No doubt he is ahead in a lot of places, to include swing states. We'll get a better feel for it as it comes down to the wire, and pollsters have to reign in the numbers to something approaching reality.
You've been talking for some time about how we've been rewarding mediocrity in our Republican politicians, so why should we accept it from these biased pollsters? I'm not going to suddenly start believing their BS because it's close to an election. And how "close" does that have to be, anyway? Pollsters were predicting a Clinton win at 9PM on election night, '16. 22222frying pan
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You've been talking for some time about how we've been rewarding mediocrity in our Republican politicians, so why should we accept it from these biased pollsters? I'm not going to suddenly start believing their BS because it's close to an election. And how "close" does that have to be, anyway? Pollsters were predicting a Clinton win at 9PM on election night, '16. 22222frying pan
She DID win, according to the popular vote, which is more reflected in the polls. Like I said upthread, it looks like a big miss according to the red/blue board - But a lot of those states on the electoral map were a close call. I readily admit their bias remained, even to the end, calling every lean for Clinton right to the end.
I think at the end, the pollsters were pretty close. But that's my point too - they don't matter at the end. The only poll that matters by then is in November.
What matters is that they're jackin with the numbers along the way, trying to influence the race. THAT is why I pay them no mind.
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What matters is that they're jackin with the numbers along the way, trying to influence the race. THAT is why I pay them no mind.
THIS! pointing-up pointing-up pointing-up This is the point I'm making. If the only time the numbers are any good is after the polls are closed, then they are worse than worthless all they way up to that point, and that's when they would have mattered.
They don't get credit for being right when they were wrong when it mattered.
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THIS! pointing-up pointing-up pointing-up This is the point I'm making. If the only time the numbers are any good is after the polls are closed, then they are worse than worthless all they way up to that point, and that's when they would have mattered.
They don't get credit for being right when they were wrong when it mattered.
That's right. And I never have paid em any mind. I am just stating a reality. Polls are always, always beefed to favor Democrats, until they can't be anymore... The last two weeks to a month before the election are where you see that. Invariably, they start jiggerin their jacked up numbers back down to be in line with reality. They can't just change the week before the election... it has to be an easy decline... let the air out slow... That is a well worn pattern.
Anyone who thinks Sleepy Joe was ever really ahead by fifteen points needs their heads examined.
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Anyone who thinks Sleepy Joe was ever really ahead by fifteen points needs their heads examined.
(https://familychiropracticstettler.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/HeadExamined.jpg)
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Since 2000, we have been bombarded with the slogan, "As Ohio goes, so goes the country." Bush won Ohio in 2000 and 2004. Obama in 2008 and 2012. Trump in 2016. But this year, the press is completely silent about Ohio - a state that Trump leads in the polls. Go figure.
Because they know they have a loser and are propping him up.
They are basically the giant curtain in the Wizard of Oz that we are not to look behind.
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RCP now has Trump winning in florida.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html)
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A warning about RCP 'polls':
RCP doesn't do polling. It's 'poll' number is a reflection of the average results from several very different polls. Florida number includes results from the St. Pete poll and the Susquehanna poll. The former polled over six times more people than the latter, but their results were averaged equally. This simply is not a valid statistical method because the smaller poll group will have a much higher margin of error than the larger.
I don't trust the Susquehanna poll any more than I trust Florida Atlantic or CBS. Which in turn means that I don't trust RCP.
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A warning about RCP 'polls':
RCP doesn't do polling. It's 'poll' number is a reflection of the average results from several very different polls. Florida number includes results from the St. Pete poll and the Susquehanna poll. The former polled over six times more people than the latter, but their results were averaged equally. This simply is not a valid statistical method because the smaller poll group will have a much higher margin of error than the larger.
I don't trust the Susquehanna poll any more than I trust Florida Atlantic or CBS. Which in turn means that I don't trust RCP.
RCP is a polling aggregator.
RCP polling average is usually fairly accurate, although not in 2016 state polls. Good sign for Trump though.
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A warning about RCP 'polls':
RCP doesn't do polling. It's 'poll' number is a reflection of the average results from several very different polls. Florida number includes results from the St. Pete poll and the Susquehanna poll. The former polled over six times more people than the latter, but their results were averaged equally. This simply is not a valid statistical method because the smaller poll group will have a much higher margin of error than the larger.
I don't trust the Susquehanna poll any more than I trust Florida Atlantic or CBS. Which in turn means that I don't trust RCP.
Sounds like GIGO to me.
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Sounds like GIGO to me.
Garbage does that every time!