Analysis: Joe Biden’s ‘Blue Wall’ Crumbles Under Weight of Donald Trump’s ComebackWendell Husebø 4 May 2024
President Joe Biden’s seemingly unassailable “blue wall” appears to be crumbling in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s greatest political comeback in history.
The “blue wall” represents three battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden must win these states to prevent Trump from winning reelection.
The states are imperative for Biden due to Trump’s surge in the sunbelt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. In those four states, Trump leads Biden between three and six points in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages show.
“There’s a clear divide between the Blue Wall states, where the polling is close, and the Sun Belt states, where it isn’t,” wrote Steven Shepard, Politico‘s senior campaign and elections editor and chief polling analyst.
For the first time in 2024, Trump held a narrow lead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, Tuesday’s Emerson poll showed. Previous swing state polling showed Trump leading in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with only Michigan leaning toward Biden.
Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will decide the president, longtime Democrat adviser Doug Sosnik wrote in the New York Times. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral votes become slim.
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