May 1, 2024
Why I think the accurate forecaster predicting a Biden win is wrong
By Andrea Widburg
I have been brooding for days about a story in the Daily Mail that offers an expert’s prediction about who will win in 2024, based on his analysis of past election data: He’s calling it for Joe Biden. Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts.
According to the Daily Mail:
A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong' for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump - in November.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system, which he terms '13 Keys', and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.
He says the technique enables him 'to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.'
Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and behind in several swing states, Lichtman believes its [sic] still in the president's favor to retain office, with two of his 13 keys - lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency - already in Biden's favor.
All thirteen keys are as follows:
Which party controls the House in the midterms
Whether someone is challenging the incumbent in the primaries
The fact that one of the candidates is the incumbent
Whether there’s a significant third party
Short-term economic prospects
Long-term economic prospects
Whether the incumbent brought about major changes in American policies
Social unrest
Scandal
Major military and foreign policy failures
Major military and foreign policy successes
Incumbent’s charisma
Challenger’s charisma
more
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/05/why_i_think_the_accurate_forecaster_predicting_a_biden_is_wrong.html